Week 12: Purdue at Indiana

Perhaps it’s fitting that these two teams meet in the season finale. Both began the year with such promise, and both have faded in the months of October and November. Purdue has dropped four of its past six, including a 48-31 beating at home last week to what many considered to be an inferior Michigan State club. Indiana has lost four of its last five, and last week gave away a victory in Evanston.

Quarterback Curtis Painter has been much more efficient for the Boilermakers this season. A year ago he completed 59.4 percent of his throws with 22 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. In 2007 he has improved in all three categories: 62.3 percent, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. In recent weeks, though, his productivity has quieted some, and five of those eight interceptions have come in the past five weeks including two in last Saturday’s loss to Michigan State. Indiana’s pass defense has collected 38 sacks and the secondary has made plays (Tracy Porter is tied for the Big Ten lead in interceptions). The two have worked well together this season, or, as Porter put it, “We have faith in our front seven, and our front seven have faith in the secondary.” If the Hoosiers can force Painter to make the mistakes he made against Michigan State, Indiana could do well in this contest.

Purdue running back Kory Sheets has been effective, but with few touches to work with. After carrying the ball 20-plus times in three September contests he has approached that mark just once in the last six games. Last week he touched the football just eight times, but contributed 121 yards of offense and two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving). Purdue needs to take pressure off of Painter this week, and Sheets is the guy to do it.

Indiana, meanwhile, has downshifted on offense. Kellen Lewis has played well, but no longer at the elite level he performed at in the season’s early going. Wide receiver James Hardy will make plays, like any other week, but it has become accepted that even when Hardy has a huge performance it’s not necessarily enough to keep Indiana in the game. Lewis and the Indiana rushing attack will need to contribute more this week so that Hardy does not need to make all of the big plays. And they could do just that; Purdue’s run defense has allowed 143.1 yards per game this year.

Still, we have to like Purdue this week, even away from home. And we think Sheets will be the difference maker.

Purdue by 2