Week 12: West Virginia at Cincinnati

Literally, Cincinnati’s next game is in the Queen City.

Figuratively, that’s not the case. At least according to Bearcats coach Brian Kelly.

“I came in (to the Big East) knowing full well that, from top to bottom, you probably had the most balanced BCS league in the country,” said Kelly. “And, No. 2, to win a championship, you’ve got to go through West Virginia.”

It’s true. In order for UC to have a shot at a Big East title, the Bearcats have to defeat the No. 5 Mountaineers on Saturday. Cincy took the first step this past weekend, giving Connecticut its first league loss. If the Bearcats down the Mountaineers, who then go on to defeat the Huskies on Nov. 24, Kelly’s team has a shot at the title.

“It’s an elimination game for us,” Kelly said for the second time in three weeks. He also said the same thing when UC played South Florida. “We’re in it to win a Big East championship just like everybody else.

“We had to go on the road and beat South Florida and come back against an undefeated (in league play) Connecticut team. It’s just another one of the string of crucial games. If you lose, you’re out of the Big East championship. And anything less than a Big East championship now would be a disappointment.”

To both teams. West Virginia has rallied from its loss to South Florida to regain control of its destiny. Win out and the Mountaineers claim a BCS bowl – with the outside possibility of a national championship shot. Lose and they probably go to the Sun Bowl.

This is an intriguing game because it matches strength against strength. Offensively, Cincinnati quarterback Ben Mauk is the Big East’s No. 3 total offense leader. Last week, he completed 21-of-33 passes against UConn for 276 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. However, he’ll be facing a Mountaineer secondary, led by Ryan Mundy and Eric Wicks, that’s ranked 10th nationally against the pass.

Meanwhile, West Virginia’s offense hinges on the run. Tailback Steve Slaton is the Big East’s No. 3 rusher, averaging 98.3 yards, while quarterback Pat White is the league’s No. 6 rusher, averaging 89.2 yard. The Mountaineer rushing offense is No. 3 nationally, averaging 288.78 yards.

But UC counters with a defense that’s ranked No. 13 nationally against the run.

West Virginia enters the game as the favorite because of its all-around consistency. But Cincinnati will have a packed house of 35,000 at Nippert Stadium behind it.

What the game could boil down to is ball security.

When WVU has held onto the ball this season, it’s won. The two times it didn’t the results were ugly. The Mountaineers committed six turnovers in its 21-13 loss at South Florida. This past Thursday night, they fumbled the ball away three times, allowing Louisville back in the game, before winning 38-31.

And Cincinnati is among the country’s best teams at forcing turnovers. USF lost the ball eight times to UC and fell 38-33. Oregon State surrendered it seven times and was routed 34-3. In Cincy’s eight wins this season, it has forced 34 turnovers.

The twist is, when the opponent hasn’t turned the ball over, the Bearcats have usually lost. Louisville and Pitt, both of which beat UC, combined to turn it over once.

“That’s one of the things they do best, one of the reasons they’ve had so much success this year,” said WVU coach Rich Rodriguez. “They’re one of the best teams in the country in getting the ball away from you. Just ask South Florida.”

Here’s something few know though. While UC is ranked third nationally in turnover margin, West Virginia is fourth.

Check out the early turnover situation. See if Mountaineer quarterback White, the Big East’s No. 1 pass efficiency leader, can open up the running lanes with his passing. UC’s secondary is No. 97 nationally against the pass. If both go West Virginia’s way, the visitors might cruise. If not, UC could pull the upset.

West Virginia by 9