Week 8: Auburn at LSU

It’s another epic battle in the SEC. The winner will take charge in the Western Division title chase; the loser will suffer its second league loss and need help to get to Atlanta.

Despite its overtime loss at Kentucky last Saturday, LSU is still considered by most to be the best team in the SEC. The Tigers rank first in the SEC in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, scoring defense and total defense, as well as turnover margin and sacks recorded.

Kentucky proved that you can move the ball and score some points on the LSU defense, but Kentucky also boasts one of the top offenses in the country. Auburn’s offense, on the other hand, is rather ordinary. The Tigers have scored more than 23 points in only one of five games vs. BCS competition and are coming off a nine-point effort against an Arkansas defense that had struggled in its two previous SEC games. What Auburn is doing well of late is taking care of the football. Quarterback Brandon Cox was intercepted six times in the first three games but has only thrown one pick in the last four contests. In addition, the Tigers have only lost three fumbles during their four-game winning streak; they lost five in their two losses.

Improved offensive efficiency has no doubt been important to Auburn’s revival, but the Tigers’ defensive dominance has also played a major role. Will Muschamp’s unit has been strong defensively throughout the 2007 season, but the Tigers have been downright dominant in SEC play. In four league games, the Auburn defense is allowing an average of 234 yards and 12.5 points. Only one team has had more than 300 total yards (Florida, 312) and only one team has scored a first-half touchdown (Mississippi State). For the season (all games), Auburn ranks ninth in the nation in total defense (279.0 ypg) and 10th in scoring defense (15.6 ppg). No team has scored more than 20 points in regulation against the Tigers, and no team has totaled more than 400 yards of offense.

With the level of play being so high from both of these defenses, this game figures to be extremely low scoring. Turnovers are always important, but mistakes will be magnified in this game. Neither team can afford to give the opposition a short field to work with. A cheap touchdown could be the difference in what figures to be a very tight game.

LSU by 4