Week 6: Florida at LSU

It might not be the Game of the Century any more, but it’s still a pretty good game. Even after Florida’s shocking loss to Auburn last Saturday night, this game still has national title implications. Florida can get back into the race with a win at LSU, and the Tigers can solidify their case as one of the two best teams in the nation with a win over a very good Florida team.

Florida struggled on offense for the first time this season — which is a bad sign, since Auburn was the first quality defense the Gators have played. UF rolled up at least 500 yards in each of its first four games but managed only 312 against Auburn. The Gators still averaged a respectable 5.7 yards per play, but they had the ball for only 27:03 and ran just 55 offensive plays. Auburn limited Florida’s big plays, allowing no rushes longer than 12 yards and only two pass plays longer than 20 yards.

Here’s more bad news: Auburn’s defense is very good; LSU’s defense is great, likely the best in the country. The Tigers simply do not have a weakness. They are great on the defensive line, great at linebacker and great in the secondary. They rank first in the nation in total defense and scoring defense and have allowed a total of 32 points in five games.

Offensively, LSU has been good, but not great. But with such a good defense, they’ve only needed to be good. Matt Flynn has been bothered by a high ankle sprain, but the fifth-year senior will be good to go Saturday night. Due in part to Flynn’s injury and the fact that they usually have a big lead, the Tigers have leaned heavily on the running game. And it’s been a true running back-by-committee approach, with five tailbacks having at least 20 carries through five games. Jacob Hester leads the way, with 327 yards on a team-high 63 carries, but Keiland Williams has been the Tigers’ most explosive back, with a 7.5-yards-per-carry average.

While LSU’s four tailbacks have a combined 130 rushing attempts, Florida has only had its tailbacks carry the ball 66 times. Against Auburn, the Gators only had three attempts from a running back, all by junior Kestahn Moore. What does this mean? Nothing, when the Florida offense is humming like it did in the first four games. But when the Gators struggle, one area of concern that pops up is their inability to run the ball consistently with a conventional running back. And it’s not like Urban Meyer is anti-tailback. At Utah, Brandon Warfield rushed for 976 yards on 237 carries in 2003 and Marty Johnson rushed for 802 on 165 attempts in ’04.

So does Florida need to give the ball to Moore 20 times to beat LSU? No. But the Gators must find someway to move the football without asking Tim Tebow to put his body in harm’s way too often against the ferocious LSU defense.

LSU by 10