Week 5: Auburn at Florida

Auburn (2–2, 0–1) at Florida (4–0, 2–0)
Game Time: Saturday, September 29 at 8 p.m. ET

What looked like a potential stumbling block back in the preseason now appears to be nothing more than a tune-up for the Gators’ epic showdown at LSU in two weeks. Florida has played better than expected — thanks to the exploits of Tim Tebow — while Auburn has been the league’s biggest disappointment.

The Tigers evened their record at 2–2 with a 55–20 win over New Mexico State Saturday night. But all is not well on the Plains. The Auburn offense has struggled in every phase against quality competition. In three games against BCS opponents, Auburn has scored five offensive touchdowns and is averaging barely over 300 yards of total offense. In those three games, quarterback Brandon Cox has completed 37–of-75 for 436 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions. Cox was pulled in favor of true freshman Kodi Burns for a large part of the Mississippi State game but saw a majority of the snaps in the win vs. New Mexico State. Cox is expected to get the start this weekend.

One bright spot for the AU offense has been the emergence of Mario Fannin, a redshirt freshman tailback. When he’s not fumbling — and he didn’t do so against New Mexico State — Fannin has been a solid weapon, averaging 5.7 yards on his 36 carries.

Florida is a team with very few issues on the offensive side of the ball. The Gators lead the SEC in both total offense (517.8 ypg) and scoring offense (49.3 ppg) and arguably boast the league’s two best offensive players not named Darren McFadden in Tebow and Percy Harvin. Tebow has been magnificent in the first-third of his sophomore season. He leads the nation in passing efficiency (due largely to his 10-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio) and is averaging 89.5 yards rushing, third most of any quarterback in the nation. Harvin, a wide receiver by trade, is averaging 11.9 yards on his 41 touches (20 carries, 21 receptions).

Florida’s only apparent weakness right now is its pass defense. In three games against Division I-A (FBS competition), the Gators have allowed 283 passing yards to Troy, 261 to Tennessee and 310 to Ole Miss. In must be noted that Florida held a considerable lead in all three games, so each team was forced to pass the ball in the second half, but this inexperienced secondary is a concern.

Auburn, though, doesn’t appear to be equipped to take advantage of this one weakness. Cox has not shown the ability to make plays in the passing game, and Burns, when he is in the game, is more of a running threat.

Here are a couple of interesting notes for those that like to following the betting lines: Auburn, an 18.5-point underdog, has won its last two games in which it was a double-digit dog — at Alabama (+10.5)  in 2002 and vs. Florida (+23) in 2001. Will it happen again? Not likely.

Florida by 14