Gators vs. Cocks for SEC East
Mitch Light offers his predictions on the ten biggest games of the week.
By: Mitch Light | 11/11/10, 12:00 PM EST
By Mitch Light
South Carolina (+6.5) at Florida
It’s winner take all in the SEC East this Saturday in Gainesville. South Carolina, seeking its first-ever trip to the league title game, is only 2–2 since knocking off No. 1 Alabama in early October. The Gamecocks struggled in every phase of the game in a 41–20 loss at home to Arkansas last Saturday night. Stephen Garcia completed less than 50 percent of his passes (for the first time this season), Marcus Lattimore was held to a season-low 30 yards, and the defense was torched for 443 yards. Florida, meanwhile, has hit its stride offensively. Using a nifty three-quarterback rotation, the Gators have scored 89 points the past two weeks in wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. Their winning streak should be at three very soon.
Florida 34, South Carolina 21
Penn State (+18) at Ohio State
Joe Paterno picked his 400th win last weekend, as Penn State overcame a 21–0 deficit in the second quarter en route to a 35–21 win over Northwestern. Getting win No. 401 will be a bit more difficult. Ohio State dropped off the radar a bit with its loss at Wisconsin last month, but this is still a very good team. Since that loss in Madison, the Buckeyes beat Purdue and Minnesota by a combined score of 101–10. Also, they’ve had a week off to prepare for Penn State. The Nittany Lions seem to be energized with Matt McGloin taking the majority of the snaps at quarterback, but Ohio State is simply too good on both sides of the ball.
Ohio State 30, Penn State 14
USC (+4) at Arizona
Arizona’s Pac-10 title hopes took a big hit last weekend with a 42–17 loss at Stanford, but this is still a big game for the Wildcats. With a trip to No. 1 Oregon and a rivalry game with Arizona State looming, they need to take care of business this weekend. A victory over USC will clinch a third-straight winning season in Pac-10 play — something that hasn’t happened at Arizona since the early 1990s. USC, on the other hand, is hoping to avoid its first losing conference season since 2000, the final year of the Paul Hackett era. The Trojans (and their 97th-ranked defense) play their final three league games on the road — at Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA.
Arizona 34, USC 27
Clemson (+7) at Florida State
Good luck trying to get a read on the ACC. Virginia Tech has separated itself with a 5–0 league record, but there are five teams with two losses and two others with three. Florida State had a golden opportunity to seize control of the Atlantic Division but lost at NC State and at home to North Carolina in consecutive weeks. The Noles have shown signs of being an elite team but can’t find the consistency necessary to take that next step. Clemson has recovered from an 0–2 start in league play to win three of its past four. Now at 3–3, the Tigers will be in great shape in the division race with a win at Florida State. That, however, will be difficult. The Tigers are 0–4 on the road this season and have struggled to score against solid competition.
Florida State 24, Clemson 14
Georgia (+8.5) at Auburn
With a win over Georgia, Auburn can secure its first trip to the SEC Championship Game since 2004 and, more important, remain among the top two teams in the BCS Standings. The Tigers have been phenomenal on offense and just good enough on defense. That sometimes-suspect defense will be tested by a Georgia team that has a ton of weapons. The Bulldogs have averaged 39.8 points over their last four SEC Games — three lopsided wins and an overtime loss to Florida. It’s tempting to go with Georgia in the upset, but it’s tough to jump on the bandwagon of a team whose best win this season is at Kentucky. It won’t be easy, but Auburn will remain undefeated.
Auburn 35, Georgia 30
Texas A&M (-3) at Baylor
Baylor missed an opportunity to take control of the Big 12 South race, losing 55–28 at Oklahoma State. But the fact that we are talking about Baylor and a division title in November is a credit to Art Briles and his staff (and also a knock on Texas and, to a lesser degree, Oklahoma). Texas A&M is playing as well as any team in the league. The Aggies have won three straight, capped off by Saturday night’s 33–18 win over Oklahoma. Texas A&M rolled up 382 yards of offense, with Ryan Tannehill (2–0 as the starter) throwing for 225 and Cyrus Gray rushing for 122 on 21 carries. It was the Aggies’ first win over Oklahoma since 2002. They are seeking their second straight over Baylor. They will get it.
Texas A&M 38, Baylor 30
Oklahoma State (-5.5) at Texas
Texas’ epic struggles have been the most surprising story in college football this season. One of the true superpowers in the sport — UT has won 10 games or more in nine straight seasons — has lost five of its past six games, including three straight to Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State. Last week, the Horns hit a low point, falling behind K-State 39–0 after three quarters. Now, Texas finds itself as an underdog at home for the first time since Nebraska came to town in 1999. Oklahoma State has also been a big surprise — on the positive side. The retooled Pokes sit atop the Big 12 South standings with a 4–1 record. It should be 5–1 after Saturday.
Oklahoma State 28, Texas 20
Mississippi State (+13.5) at Alabama
Mississippi State returns to the field for the first time since the death of defensive end Nick Bell. It will no doubt be an emotional night for the Bulldogs, who will be searching for their seventh straight win. State has been getting it done with defense and its running game. Over the last three SEC games (all wins), the Bulldogs have completed a total of 20 passes and given up an average of 12 points. Alabama must refocus after seeing its dream of a repeat national title end with a loss in Baton Rouge. Nick Saban will have the Tide ready to play, but it might be difficult for this team to play with the same intensity. After all, it’s the first time since the end of the 2007 season that Alabama is playing in a game that will not impact the national title chase.
Alabama 20, Mississippi State 13
Miami (Fla.) (-2.5) at Georgia Tech
It’s the battle of the backup quarterbacks, with Stephen Morris expected to get the start once again for the Hurricanes and Tevin Washington in for his first-ever start for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech, at 5–4 overall and 3–3 in the SEC, has been a mild disappointment this season. Despite the relative struggles, the Jackets need only one more ACC win to keep alive one of the more impressive streaks in college football; Tech has had a non-losing conference record in 15 straight seasons. A win over Miami this week or Duke next week will increase the streak to 16 years. The guess here? It happens this week.
Georgia Tech 27, Miami 24
Kansas State (+13) at Missouri
After opening the season with seven straight wins, Missouri has lost two straight — both on the road. The Tigers averaged 34.7 points in their seven wins but have managed a total of 34 points in their two losses. Last week against Texas Tech, Blaine Gabbert had his worst game as a starter, completing only 12-of-30 passes for 95 yards and, for the first time this season, no touchdowns. Speaking of not throwing touchdown passes, Kansas State completed a total of two passes in its shockingly easy 39-–14 win over Texas last week. Backup quarterback Collin Klein threw for only nine yards but led the team with 127 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 25 attempts. This is only the Wildcats third road game of the season and just their second trip outside the state of Kansas.
Missouri 28, Kansas State 17
Last week: 8–2 overall (6–4 against the spread)
Season: 67–33 overall (50–44–4 against the spread)
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