Texas (-22) at Texas A&M (Thu)

So it’s quite simple for Texas: Beat Texas A&M this week and beat Nebraska in the Big 12 title game and it’s on to the national championship showdown with FloriBama. But, as any Texas fan can tell you, beating Texas A&M is not always as “simple” as it seems. Two years ago, the Horns lost to the Aggies, 38–30, in College Station and back in 2006, A&M won a defensive struggle, 12–7, in Austin. With so much at stake this season, don’t expect another Aggie upset — but this one should be closer than the boys in Vegas are predicting.
Texas 34, Texas A&M 23

Alabama (-11) at Auburn (Fri)

One of these years, the Iron Bowl will have a ton of meaning for both teams. This is not one of those years. Sure, Auburn has plenty to play for — a .500 record in the SEC, potentially a better bowl game, a chance to ruin Bama’s season — but the Tigers don’t need to beat the Tide to make the first year of the Gene Chizik era a success. Alabama, on the other hand, needs to win this game. Losing is not an option for Nick Saban’s club.
Alabama 20, Auburn 10

Nevada (+12) at Boise State (Fri)

They dropped off the national radar with losses in their first three games, but the Nevada Wolf Pack have been one of the hottest teams in the nation over the past two months. The Pack have won eight straight — most in dominating fashion — led by a devastating rushing attack. Not only is Nevada the first Division I team ever with three 1,000-yard rushers in a single season, but consider the following: The Wolf Pack’s three-headed monster ranks first, second and third in the nation in yards per carry — Colin Kaepernick (1st, 8.55 ypc), Vai Taua (2nd, 8.01 ypc) and Luke Lipincott (3rd, 7.73 ypc). And on the strength of this ground game, look for the Pack to pull off the upset and buck the Broncos out of the BCS mix.
Nevada 34, Boise State 30

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at West Virginia (Fri)

Cincinnati has gotten all the pub — and deservedly so — but there is another Big East team enjoying a very solid season. Pittsburgh, like Cincinnati, is undefeated in the Big East and ranked in the top 10 nationally. But unlike the Bearcats, Pitt has a loss — a 38–31 come-from-ahead setback at NC State back in September. Had the Panthers won that game, they, like UC, would be one of several undefeated teams searching for a way to squeeze into the national title game. That, obviously, is not the case. The best Pittsburgh can hope for is a Big East title and a second-ever trip to a BCS game. And that goal should remain alive for one more week.
Pittsburgh 24, West Virginia 20

Florida State (+23) at Florida

It’s Tim Tebow’s final game in the Swamp, but more important, it’s the Gators’ final regular-season hurdle en route to a second straight national title. Florida has dominated this series of late, winning five straight overall by an average of 20.8 points per game. And while Florida State has shown some signs of life — four wins in its past four games — there is not much evidence to suggest that the Seminoles can win this game. When your run defense is ranked 105th in the nation, how can you expect to slow down a Florida offense that is leaning on its ground attack more now than at any time during the Urban Meyer era? It’s a rhetorical question.
Florida 27, Florida State 14

Georgia (+7.5) at Georgia Tech

For only the fifth time in the past 20 years, Georgia Tech is favored in this annual intrastate showdown. And if you’ve seen these two teams play this year — or if you saw Georgia Tech’s 45–42 win over the Dawgs in Athens last season — it’s clear why the Jackets are more than a touchdown favorite. Paul Johnson’s team is 10–1, ranked in the top 10 in the nation and headed toward the ACC title game. Georgia, on the other hand, is fresh off a disturbing loss at home to Kentucky. The Bulldogs are 6–5 overall and in danger of their first non-winning regular season since 1996.
Georgia Tech 44, Georgia 20

Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky

There’s plenty at stake for both teams. Tennessee would love to secure a winning season in the first year of the Lane Kiffin era, while Kentucky, with a win, can finish ahead of the Vols in the SEC standings for the first time since 1977. That’s right: UK has not finished with a better SEC record than Tennessee in over 30 years. For that to happen, the Wildcats will have to do something else that doesn’t happen very often — beat Tennessee. The last time that happened was in 1984, and the last time UK beat the Vols in Lexington was in 1977. Will it happen this year? The guess here: No.
Tennessee 24, Kentucky 20

Clemson (-3) at South Carolina

These two teams are headed in opposite directions. Clemson has won six straight and is on the way to its first-ever ACC title game. South Carolina, meanwhile, has lost three straight and four out of five and is hoping to avoid hitting the six-loss mark for the third straight season. To be fair, two of the Gamecocks’ last four losses have come against Alabama and Florida, the top two teams in the nation, but they also have an 18-point loss at Tennessee and a 17-point loss at Arkansas during this stretch. Carolina is simply struggling to put points on the board; over the last five games, the Gamecocks are averaging 12.6 points and have not scored more than 16 in any of those games. That won’t cut it against Clemson — even in Columbia.
Clemson 23, South Carolina 16

Notre Dame (+8) at Stanford

It’s looking more and more like this will be Charlie Weis’ last game as the head coach of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame’s once-promising season has taken several wrong turns, the most recent a 33–30 loss in overtime at home to Connecticut. Stanford is trending upward, despite the loss at Cal last week in the Big Game. The Cardinal are 7–4 overall and 6–3 in the Pac-10 on the strength of a devastating rushing attack powered by senior Toby Gerhart. In Notre Dame’s recent three-game losing streak, five different ball-carriers have topped the 100-yard mark vs. the Irish — two for Navy and UConn and one for Pittsburgh. It figures to be a productive game for Gerhart.
Stanford 30, Notre Dame 20

Oklahoma State (-9) at Oklahoma

How much respect do the boys in Vegas have for Oklahoma? The 6–5 Sooners, fresh off a 41–13 loss to Texas Tech, are a nine-point favorite against an Oklahoma State team that is 9–2 overall and 6–1 in the league. Yes, O-State quarterback Zac Robinson might not play, but the Cowboys have proven to be a very solid football team throughout the course of the 2009 season. So does this mean I am picking the Pokes? With Robinson in the lineup, the answer would be a resounding yes. But with his status up the air, I’m going to play it safe and go with the home-standing Sooners.
Oklahoma 24, Oklahoma State 20

Last week — 6–4 overall (4–6 against the spread)
Season — 77–43 overall (51–66–3 against the spread)