With just five conference games remaining in the regular season, the officials in charge of the games that have contractual agreements with the Pac-10 are scrambling to get an idea of who might be coming to visit. We know the winner of next week’s Civil War between Oregon State and Oregon will determine the conference champion and a berth in the Rose Bowl — but not much else.
The way it looks now, the most likely scenario is that there will be a four-way tie for second place in the conference standings. That could be a fun situation for the Holiday Bowl, which is entitled to the Pac-10’s second place team. It could be a little more unsettling for some of the conference’s lower-level bowl games, such as the Emerald Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl.
If Oregon beats Oregon State and Cal beats Washington, then there will be at least three teams tied for second place. If either USC or Arizona win its final two games, there will be a fourth team in the runner-up spot.
It’s a rare season that the Trojans don’t go to a BCS game, so the conventional wisdom is the Holiday Bowl will take about a millisecond in deciding to choose USC, providing it does indeed tie for second. That would probably set up a USC-Nebraska matchup that would be sure to haul in huge television ratings.
The Sun Bowl, which takes the third place team, would almost assuredly select Cal in that scenario because the Bears are the only Pac-10 team never to play in the game. That would leave the Emerald Bowl to pick Stanford and the Las Vegas Bowl to take Oregon State.
Of course, there are several other scenarios. What if Arizona wins its final two games? Would the Holiday Bowl want Cal for the third time in six years? What if USC and Arizona each split its final two games? That would leave the Holiday Bowl to choose between simply between Oregon State and Cal.
Then there’s the scenario in which Oregon State beats Oregon to win the Pac-10. Things are slightly less complicated then. Oregon would finish alone in second place and go to the Holiday Bowl. But there still could be a four-way tie for third place. Or a two-way tie.
You get the picture.
Scoreboard
Oregon 44, Arizona 41 (2 OT)
Cal 34, Stanford 28
UCLA 23, Arizona State 13
Oregon State 42, Washington State 10
Second Best?
When Cal’s Jahvid Best went down with a severe concussion and back injury against Oregon State two weeks ago, it looked as though the Bears’ streak of producing 1,000-yard rushers was over. Cal has had a running back run for over 1,000 yards in each of Jeff Tedford’s seven years as coach.
Best has 867 yards, but his return for the rest of the season is uncertain. But it might not matter.
After his dominating 193-yard performance against Stanford in the Big Game on Saturday, backup Shane Vereen suddenly has 738 yards on the season. That means he’ll have to average 131 yards over the Bears’ final two games — at Washington on Dec. 5 and in a bowl game — to reach 1,000 for the season.
Considering Vereen has averaged 176 yards in his two games replacing Best in the starting lineup, it doesn’t seem out of the question whatsoever.
There is one potential mitigating factor. Best is eyeing a return against Washington. If he’s not ready to assume a full workload, he might split time evenly with Vereen and diminish each player’s chances of reaching the mark.
Falling Cats
Once upon a time, Arizona controlled its own destiny in the Pac-10 race. Now the Wildcats may not even get into one of the conference’s affiliated bowl games.
Back-to-back losses to Cal and Oregon have dropped Arizona into a tie for fifth in the Pac-10. If the Wildcats lose their remaining two games and UCLA beats USC on Saturday, Arizona and UCLA would tie for sixth place, leaving the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego the choice between the teams. The team left out would have to hope to get picked up by an out-of-conference bowl game.
Of course, the other extreme is also still possible for the Wildcats. If they win out, they could finish in a tie for second place and go to as many as four different Pac-10 bowl games, including the Holiday Bowl in a likely matchup against Nebraska.

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