Cincinnati (-3) at South Florida

It’s still very early, but this looks like the Game of the Year in the Big East. Cincinnati has been one of the most impressive teams in the nation, with a perfect 5–0 record and an average margin of victory of 18.5 points (over FBS foes). The schedule hasn’t been overly difficult, but any win at Oregon State is a good win, and beating Rutgers at home by 32 points is impressive. South Florida’s schedule has been shockingly easy, with the exception of one game. And in that one game, the Bulls recorded the biggest win in school history, knocking off Florida State 17–7 in Tallahassee. This team is playing with swagger, but Cincinnati, too, is a confident team. When in doubt, go with Brian Kelly.
Cincinnati 28, South Florida 20

Oklahoma (+3) vs. Texas

For the first time since 2005 and only the second time in the Bob Stoops era, Oklahoma has two losses heading into the showdown with Texas. The Sooners’ national title hopes might be shot, but they can still win a Big 12 title and play in a BCS bowl for the seventh time in eight years. Texas is in good shape on the national scene — if the Horns keep winning they are headed to the national title game. But they do have a few hurdles to get past, starting with the hated Sooners on Saturday afternoon. Texas has passed every test this season, but the Horns are far from a perfect team. Texas Tech made them sweat in Week 3, and Colorado was leading 14–10 at the half last weekend. With so much at stake, there is more pressure on Texas, which can work in OU’s favor. Go with the relaxed Sooners in a mild upset.
Oklahoma 19, Texas 17

Iowa (-1.5) at Wisconsin

If it’s possible to look good in a 31–13 loss, then Wisconsin looked pretty good at Ohio State last week. Scott Tolzein made some mistakes, but he continues to impress at the quarterback position, and the Badgers are rock solid at running back with John Clay and Zach Brown leading the way. This team might not win the Big Ten title, but the Badgers look like a team headed toward a very nice bowl. Iowa, on the other hand, looks like a legitimate title contender. The Hawkeyes are 6–0 overall and 2–0 in league play with that huge win at Penn State and a two-point victory over Michigan. There is nothing that really stands out about this team (though the offensive line is pretty darn good), but Iowa just keeps on winning — with 10 straight victories dating back to last season. That streak, however, is in serious jeopardy.
Wisconsin 30, Iowa 28

USC (-10) at Notre Dame

USC has dominated this series of late, with seven straight wins by an average of 27 points — and that includes a three-point win in the 2005 classic. Why should things be any different this season? Well, the outcome should be the same — a Trojan win — but this Notre Dame team has the ability to make USC work a little bit. Even without talented wideout Michael Floyd, the Notre Dame offense is capable of putting points on the board. Golden Tate has emerged as a force, with 115 yards receiving against Michigan, 127 vs. Michigan State and 244 vs. Washington. Notre Dame might score some points, but the question is: Can the Irish slow down USC? Not enough to win.
USC 27, Notre Dame 20

Wake Forest (+6) at Clemson

With the balance of power clearly in the Coastal Division this season, the ACC Atlantic title is there for the taking. Wake Forest leads the pack with a 2–1 record (and is a goal line fumble at BC away from 3–0) and can take a big step forward with a win at Clemson this Saturday. The Tigers haven’t played since a shocking 24–21 loss at Maryland two weeks ago. This team has too much talent to be 2–3 overall and 1–2 in league play. But as usual, Clemson is struggling to play consistent football. The Tigers were superb for much of the second half in a loss at Georgia Tech and completely dominated Boston College, 25–7, in Week 3. I will probably regret this — I always do when I pick Clemson.
Clemson 24, Wake Forest 17

Cal (-3.5) at UCLA

This might sound familiar, but a once-promising season for Cal has taken several wrong turns. With two straight losses — by a combined score of 72–6 — the Bears’ hopes of a Pac-10 title are obviously over. So how does this team bounce back? Two years ago, Cal dropped off the national map with some midseason losses and ended up losing six of its final seven regular-season games. Jeff Tedford’s charge is to prevent that from happening to the 2009 Bears. UCLA has cooled off since jumping out to a 3–0 record that included wins at Tennessee and at home vs. Kansas State. This team is playing well defensively — Oregon had only 303 total yards — but the offense continues to struggle. The Bruins have failed to hit the 300-yard mark in three of their last four games, including a 211-yard effort in last week’s loss to Oregon.
Cal 20, UCLA 10

Texas Tech (-10.5) at Nebraska

It was only one game in early October, but it’s hard to overstate the importance of Nebraska’s comeback win at Missouri last Thursday night. The Huskers, still stinging from the difficult loss at Virginia Tech two weeks earlier, showed a ton of toughness in very difficult conditions. In the process of moving to 1–0 in the league, they handed one of the other two teams expected to contend in the North a damaging home loss. Texas Tech has rebounded from losses to Texas and Houston by blasting New Mexico and Kansas State by a combined score of 114–42. With Taylor Potts out last week, Mike Leach plugged in back-up Steven Sheffield, who threw for 490 yards and seven touchdowns. The Red Raiders have won three straight over Nebraska, scoring 70 points three years ago, 34 two years ago and 37 last season. Leach isn’t saying who will be taking the snaps, Sheffield or Potts, who went down with an injury against New Mexico. If Sheffield, who has made one career start, is forced to go, he could have a very difficult time against the stout Huskers’ defense.
Nebraska 31, Texas Tech 21

Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Georgia Tech

Oklahoma and Texas will be doing their thing in Dallas and USC vs. Notre Dame will always be high on the hype-meter, but the best game of the day could be in Atlanta, where the two red-hot Techs get together in a showdown that will go a long way in deciding the ACC Coastal Division race. With the exception of the Week 3 loss at Miami, the Georgia Tech option attack has been operating very efficiently in 2009. The Jackets have rolled up at least 400 yards in five of six games and have rushed for 300-plus three times. Virginia Tech knows how to move the ball on the ground, as well. The Hokies rushed for 235 yards on 51 carries in last week’s dominating win over Boston College, and they ran for 272 vs. Miami and 444 vs. Marshall. The key for each defense will be preventing the big play. You have to force a run-based attack to drive the length of the field. At this stage of the season, I trust the Virginia Tech offense a bit more. Over the past two weeks, the Georgia Tech defense allowed an average of 513 yards in wins over Florida State and Mississippi State.
Virginia Tech 24, Georgia Tech 20

Stanford (+5.5) at Arizona

This is a key swing game for two solid two-loss teams fighting for position in the Pac-10. Arizona is one play (fluke pick 6 at Washington last week) from a 2–0 record in the Pac-10 with both wins on the road. This is a solid team that is getting quality play from Nick Foles, who has emerged as the No. 1 quarterback in recent weeks. Stanford can move the ball through the air, but this is a team that leans heavily on senior tailback Toby Gerhart, who ranks fourth in the nation with a 124.3-yard average. How important is Gerhart? Well, the Cardinal are 4–0 when he rushes for 100 yards or more and 0–2 when he fails to hit the century mark. Arizona, which ranks 21st in the nation in stopping the run, is good enough to keep Gerhart under control.
Arizona 24, Stanford 17

Missouri (+7.5) at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State managed to roll up 448 yards and 36 points last week with two-thirds — running back Kendall Hunter and wideout Dez Bryant — of its Big Three out of action. But those numbers came against a Texas A&M defense that ranks in the 80s nationally in rushing defense, total defense and scoring defense. Both Bryant (suspension) and Hunter (injury) will be out this week, but the Pokes still have enough firepower to put some points on the board against Missouri. Against A&M, quarterback Zac Robinson threw for 279 yards and two scores, and tailback Keith Toston, one of the best backups in the nation, rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries. Missouri is still smarting from its fourth quarter collapse last Thursday night at home against Nebraska. After five games, we are still not sure how good this Tiger team can be in 2009.
Oklahoma State 38, Missouri 24

Last week — 7–3 overall (4–6 against the spread)
Season — 35–25 overall (24–36 against the spread)