40: Rutgers — With 13 starters back from a team that won its final seven games, including the program’s third-straight bowl victory, Rutgers is a steady quarterback away from being a major player in the Big East race. This team may simply have to ride its running game and defense until that quarterback emerges. There’s an immediate test with the opener against defending champ Cincinnati and the Knights close the season on Dec. 5 against perennial power West Virginia. Those games could determine the league champ.
39: Northwestern — Northwestern has improved its win total in each of the last two seasons, and an opportunity for another step forward — or at least a side step — arrives this fall. Several factors favor the Wildcats, namely a transformed defense that returns eight starters and a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State. There will be growing pains on offense after losing so much at the skill spots, but if Northwestern can get by with defense and line play for a while, things should come together nicely. The Wildcats have reached back-to-back bowl games only once in their mostly pathetic history, but another postseason appearance certainly seems within reach this fall.
38: Arizona State — The same Sun Devil fans who were in love with Erickson after ASU finished 10–3 in 2007 became impatient when the team went 5–7 last year. Things should get better this season. The defense will keep ASU in a lot of games, but there are too many shortcomings on offense to imagine the Sun Devils challenging for the Pac-10 title. Given that ASU has to play at Georgia and has a brutal three-game stretch against California, USC and Oregon starting Oct. 31, an eight-win season would be satisfactory.
37: Missouri — If Missouri is going to continue its winning ways, a new crop of stars needs to emerge. The talent is there on both sides of the ball, but experience is an issue. The Tigers should find out quickly where they stack up in the conference, opening up Big 12 play against Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas. Two wins in those first three conference games would prove that Missouri hasn’t missed a beat. Anything worse and the Tigers will scrambling to defend their North Division crown.
36: Arkansas — Arkansas should be a much stronger team, literally and figuratively, in 2009. The Razorbacks now have a better grasp on the complex schemes and the rugged physical demands of Bobby Petrino’s system. Arkansas should have a harder-hitting defense, its offense should be much more versatile, and its special teams a cut above last year. All that said, the Razorbacks still might have to battle hard to qualify for a bowl because of a brutal schedule.
35: Miami — There’s a new starting quarterback, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, but not much time to work out the kinks thanks to a killer first month of the schedule. The biggest need, as it has been for several seasons, is for playmakers on both sides of the ball. The roster is as talented as any in the ACC, but it may take another year of experience before Miami is ready to venture back into the BCS picture.
34: Tennessee — The genius in Lane Kiffin’s offense is in the simplicity; Tennessee will choose players over plays, looking to get athletes with the most physical upside on the field. The Vols’ defense, tied for third in the nation last year, will likely fall off. All-American Eric Berry can’t be everywhere, even if at times it seems like he is, and the lack of experience at linebacker and lack of depth on the defensive line could catch up with Tennessee. That said, if the Vols don’t beat themselves on offense and the freshman skill players live up to their billing, a 10-win season is within reach.
33: BYU — Bronco Mendenhall likes the attitude of his team, comparing it favorably to the 2006 squad that finished 11–2 after losing two of its first three games. A similar pattern may develop, considering the Cougars meet Oklahoma and Florida State in the first three weeks of the season. If the secondary can improve and the inexperienced receivers and offensive linemen develop as expected, Max Hall should be able to produce enough points to keep BYU in the conference race.
32: Illinois — Illinois failed to capitalize on the 2008 Rose Bowl appearance, losing its last three games to miss the postseason. Illini fans won’t settle for another sub-.500 season. The talent is there to avoid the disappointment, especially on offense. Juice Williams will finish his career as the most productive quarterback in school history. Receiver should be a strength, but Arrelious Benn can’t be the only guy catching more than 20 passes. The offense will need to carry the team early in the season while new starters are established on defense.
31: Texas Tech — There are probably too many questions to think Texas Tech could repeat its 11–1 regular season of 2008. But Tech is always a tough match-up. Taylor Potts is the heir apparent at quarterback, but Leach called his performance in the spring game “average.” The defense and running game may have to carry Tech early until Potts finds a groove. Possibly starting two freshmen safeties is a lot to ask in the pass-happy Big 12.

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