Week 11: Arkansas State at FIU

Florida International likely played its way out of the Sun Belt race last week, but Arkansas State stepped right back into it. FIU lost to Louisiana-Lafayette, the league’s only team with an undefeated Sun Belt record, last week. ASU was shut out by Alabama 35-0 last week, but Troy’s loss to Louisiana-Monroe gave the Red Wolves’ renewed hope in a title run. ASU lost to front-runner ULL earlier in the season, but it still has Troy on the schedule and Troy and ULL still play later in the season. So the Red Wolves could conceivably win their remaining conference games and finish in a tie for the title. The last three Sun Belt championships have been shared by multiple teams.

But ASU must be perfect in conference play the remainder of the way to fulfill any title hopes, and it has the most conference games (4) left of any Sun Belt squad. Being shutout by Alabama last week didn’t help ASU’s confidence, nor does the schedule. The Red Wolves are traditionally a very strong home teams and mediocre on the road, and only one of their remaining four games is at home.

FIU had a three-game winning streak earlier this season after going the previous two years without a victory, but it’s still a so-so team with only a few weapons. The Golden Panthers rely heavily on freshman T.Y. Hilton for a spark. Hilton is the nation’s leader in all-purpose yards and one of its best kick/punt returners. He has five touchdowns in the last five games in three roles — kick returner, punt returner and receiver.

ASU is a better and more complete team, but it must run the ball consistently and not turn it over. FIU has thrived on forcing turnovers and used a short field to score most of its points in wins this season. But ASU is careful with the football, as it ranks sixth nationally in turnover margin at +10. FIU may have to find another way to beat the Red Wolves than takeaways.

Notes:

FIU’s Paul McCall has completely claimed the starting quarterback job after more than a year of battling Wayne Younger for the spot. McCall has passed for more than 200 yards in three of the last four games, while Younger has only thrown four passes total in the last five games.

FIU has won with exceptional special teams and opportunistic play in terms of turnovers and field position. The Golden Panthers rank 116th nationally in total offense and have won three games despite never gaining 350 yards in a single game this season.

ASU needs offensive balance to win, and that means consistently running the ball. The Red Wolves rushed for 246 yards per game in their first six games, but have only averaged 96 rushing yards in back-to-back losses.

Key Player (Red Wolves) — Brett Shrable, P

If Shrable, a veteran punter, can keep the ball away from Hilton, ASU likely wins. ASU allows only five yards per punt return by opponents, 26th-best in the nation.

Key Player (Golden Panthers) — T.Y. Hilton, WR/Returner

No two FIU players have as much impact as Hilton. The freshman affects field position with long returns and errant kicks/punts in an effort to avoid him. Hilton shouldn’t leave the field on offense or special teams.

ASU by 7