2008 Weekend On Tap: Week 6

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our team pages to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and Five Burning Questions.

Duke (+14.5) at Georgia Tech

No two first-year coaches have had a bigger impact than Duke’s David Cutcliffe and Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson. The Devils, who won a total of four games over the previous four seasons, are off to a 3–1 start with wins over Division I-AA power James Madison, Navy and Virginia. All of those wins have come at home, but Cutcliffe has done a tremendous job instilling some much-needed confidence into his team. Johnson’s success at Georgia Tech is no surprise. The guy is simply a great coach. His option offense is churning out over 300 rushing yards per game thanks to the strong play of quarterbacks Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw and underrated tailback Jonathan Dwyer. Georgia Tech has been strong on defense, as well, limiting its three BCS conference foes to an average of 14.3 points per game. Duke is improved, but Georgia Tech is better, at home and more battle-tested.

Georgia Tech 34, Duke 20

Iowa (+9.5) at Michigan State

Iowa has had two opportunities to make a statement this year, and came up just short both times, losing by one point at Pitt and then dropping the Big Ten opener at home to Northwestern. Those aren’t horrible losses, but those are games you have to win if you want to be a good team. Michigan State is fresh off a solid 42–29 win at Indiana. After losing the opener at Cal 38–31, the Spartans have reeled off four straight wins by an average score of 31–12. Javon Ringer continues to be the star in East Lansing; he ranks second in the nation in rushing with 179.4 yards per game and has topped the 190-yard mark three straight weeks. Quarterback Brian Hoyer has been mediocre at best, with a completion percentage under 50 percent and only three touchdown passes. Iowa’s run defense has been very good to date; if the Hawkeyes can find a way to slow down Ringer and force Hoyer to make some plays down the field they have a chance to pull the upset. That, however, won’t be easy.

Michigan State 27, Iowa 20  

Illinois (+2.5) at Michigan

Illinois has lost to two very good teams (Missouri and Penn State) and defeated two not-so-good teams (Eastern Illinois and UL Lafayette). Now, it’s time for the Illini to find out where they stand against a team somewhere in the middle. Michigan is sky-high after its comeback win vs. Wisconsin, but the reality is that this is not a very good football team. The Wolverines are struggling on offense (both running and throwing) and have been turning the ball over at an alarming rate. If the Illini can take care of the ball (easier said than done for this team) and make the Michigan offense drive the length of the field, they should be celebrating their first win over the Wolverines since 1999.

Illinois 24, Michigan 13

South Carolina (+2.5) at Ole Miss

It’s must-win time for South Carolina, which dropped its first two SEC games (at Vanderbilt, vs. Georgia) by seven points each. Much to the dismay of most Gamecock fans, Stephen Garcia will not get the start at quarterback this week. Steve Spurrier named Chris Smelley as the starter “because we simply feel he’s mentally better prepared than Stephen, and we will go from there.” In addition to the instability at quarterback, this team has other concerns. The offensive line continues to be a problem, special teams have been poor and turnovers are a major issue. The defense has been very strong (No. 1 in the nation), but Georgia is the only team the Gamecocks have played that really scares you on the offensive side of the ball. Ole Miss has proven that it can score some points against quality competition, with 28 in a close loss at Wake Forest and 31 in the stunning win last week in Gainesville. When quarterback Jevan Sneed is not turning the ball over, Ole Miss is good enough to beat any team in the SEC. The defense is solid and getting better as the defensive line gets healthier. Houston Nutt has a good thing going in Oxford.

Ole Miss 24, South Carolina 20

Oregon (+16.5) at USC

The boys in Vegas obviously believe that USC’s loss at Oregon State was simply a bump in the road en route to yet another Pac-10 title. How else would you explain this larger-than-expected point spread between the Trojans and the team most believe to be the league’s second-best club? Oregon bounced back from a loss at home to Boise State by becoming the latest team to beat up Washington State, rolling to a 63–14 win over the defenseless Cougars. It looks as though junior college transfer Jeremiah Masoli will get the start at quarterback, but Darron Thomas and Chris Harper will likely also see some action. There are no quarterback concerns at USC, where Mark Sanchez runs the show. The Trojans, however, need more production from the running attack. In the loss to Oregon State, USC averaged a respectable 3.9 yards per carry but only had 22 rushing attempts. Stafon Johnson ran the ball well, with 48 yards on seven carries, but the potentially electrifying Joe McKnight totaled 10 yards on seven carries. USC needs its playmakers to make more plays.

USC 34, Oregon 20

Missouri (-10.5) at Nebraska

How times have changed. The biggest surprise about Missouri being a double-digit favorite at Nebraska is that it’s not a surprise. The Tigers are one of the elite teams in college football, while Nebraska is scratching and clawing to become relevant once again the Big 12. The Huskers had an opportunity to post a signature win last weekend but dropped a 35–30 decision at home to Virginia Tech. Nebraska appears to be improved on defense under new boss Bo Pelini, but last week the Huskers gave up 377 total yards to a Virginia Tech team that averaged 271.8 in its previous four games. Missouri averages more than that in a half. The Tigers, led by Heisman candidate Chase Daniel, rank second in the nation in total offense with an astounding 595.5 yards per game. That average likely will go down as the competition gets a little bit more difficult, but this team should be able to move the ball and score points with ease all season long.

Missouri 41, Nebraska 28

Arizona State (+8.5) at California

Arizona State has reached a very important point of its season. With a 2–2 record that includes an inexplicable home loss to UNLV, the Sun Devils are about to embark on a brutal three-game stretch that includes trips to Cal, USC and a home date with Oregon. ASU has struggled to run the ball (though Keegan Herring is expected to play this week) and once again is having a tough time protecting the quarterback; the Sun Devils rank 97th in the nation in sacks allowed (2.25 per game). Cal stubbed its toe against Maryland — a loss that doesn’t look so bad now — but has otherwise been very impressive this fall. The Bears have a quality win vs. Michigan State and pounded both Washington State and Colorado State. Expect both Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore to play at quarterback, but tailback Jahvid Best is out with an elbow injury.

Cal 31, Arizona State 20

Florida State (+2.5) at Miami

Both programs have shown some signs of life this season — FSU crushed Colorado, while Miami has a nice win at Texas A&M — but both programs also have had some tough losses — the Noles scored three points in a home loss to Wake Forest, while Miami let one slip away against North Carolina last week. So which team is closer to being back? Tough question, but the guess here is that Florida State currently has the better overall roster. Miami’s young talent is quite impressive, but the Noles, now at full strength after the academic suspensions, are built to win a few more games this season. Despite the vehement protests of two colleagues (including one die-hard Seminole fan), I’m going with FSU!

Florida State 24, Miami 20

Auburn (+4) at Vanderbilt

Take a quick look at Vanderbilt’s stats — last in the SEC in total offense and total defense — and you will wonder how this team is 4–0 and ranked in the top 25. But dig a little deeper and you will discover that the Commodores are doing all of the little things well: They lead the SEC in turnover margin, quarterback sacks and punt returns and are tied for the league lead in red zone conversions and rank second in red zone defense. In addition, kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt is 7-of-7 in field goal attempts and has not missed an extra point, either. Auburn, meanwhile, is struggling on offense in Tony Franklin’s new spread attack, but the Tigers, as usual, have been dominant on defense. They are allowing less than 250 yards and just over 10 points per game. Turnovers are a key in every game but likely will play an even bigger role Saturday night. Both offenses figure to struggle to piece together long scoring drives. Whichever team can operate with a short field more often will have a great chance to win.

Auburn 17, Vanderbilt 14

Ohio State (-2.5) at Wisconsin

On paper, these two teams look a lot alike. Both like to run the ball (and they do it well) and both have been outstanding on defense. Even in their 35–3 loss at USC, the Buckeyes didn’t give up a ton of yards (348). Both teams are also dealing with some emotional baggage. The Bucks still have to be scarred from the debacle in L.A. This team is eager to prove to the nation that it can play on a national stage, and while winning in Madison isn’t quite the same as beating a USC, Florida or LSU, Wisconsin is a well-respected program that has won a ton of games in recent years. The Badgers are trying to recover from last week’s stunning loss in Ann Arbor. They led Michigan 19–0 at the half and 19–7 early in the fourth quarter before falling 27–25. Wisconsin will have to deal with the return of OSU tailback Beanie Wells, who torched the Badgers for 169 yards and three touchdowns in last year’s 38–17 loss in Columbus.

Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 14

Last week: 3–7 straight up (4–5–1 against the spread)

Season: 27–23 straight up (25–23–2 against the spread)

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