Week 6: Ball State at Toledo

For Toledo, this is the ultimate gut-check game. The Rockets have got a coach on the hot seat, a murderer’s row of games in front of them, and a fan base that is wavering. The Rockets’ long run at or near the top of the MAC has been severely curtailed by back-to-back 5-7 seasons, and unless something drastic changes, Toledo might not even make that level this time around.

This is not the point where Toledo wanted to see a freight train named Ball State come rolling into town. The Rockets are coming off their worst defeat in this era, a stunning 35-16 home loss to Florida International, a team that had never beaten a BCS team until it clipped Toledo.

The Rockets, who won the MAC West Division title four times in the first five seasons under head coach Tom Amstutz, have now lost two non-conference games at home for the first time since the 1964 season. Toledo has been a mistake-prone, inefficient group, as its four turnovers against Florida International attest.

Ball State will give the Rockets more than they can likely handle. The Cardinals were talented, balanced and explosive when they charged out of the gate to start the season. Now they are all of those things, with considerable confidence and momentum, and they are inspired. The loss of senior wide receiver and team leader Dante Love to a serious spinal injury has rallied a group that did not need rallying.

While Love recovers from surgery at a rehabilitation center in Indianapolis, he found the time to call Ball State head coach Brady Hoke three times during halftime of last week’s game. Love told his coach he was concerned about teammate MiQuale Lewis not being focused, since his shirt tail was hanging out.

The focus was likely there, as was the inspiration. Lewis ran for 116 yards and three touchdowns and caught three passes for 39 yards in a win over Kent State. He had his fourth straight 100-yard game and has 10 touchdowns this season. Combined with a stout defense and the multi-talented Nate Davis at quarterback, the Cardinals look headed for a championship.

Notes:

Toledo ended up minus-four in the turnover department in the home loss to FIU, with two Toledo fumbles leading to FIU touchdowns.

With senior Dante Love in an Indianapolis rehab center and his career over, freshman Briggs Orsbon replaced Love against Kent State and caught 10 passes for 112 yards.

In the loss to FIU, Toledo senior Nick Moore caught a game-high and season-high nine passes for 65 yards. He entered the game with just six catches on the season.

Injured Ball State senior WR Dante Love ends his career ranked second on the school’s all-time list for receptions (199), and receiving yards (2,778). He is the school's career leader in kickoff return yards (2,129), was leading the nation in receiving yards per game (144.3) before the injury.

Toledo’s 16 points against FIU was its lowest scoring output at home since the Rockets had just 13 points against Eastern Michigan in 1999.

Key Player (Cardinals) – Derrick Henry, FS

The Ball State offense gets most of the ink, but if defenses win championships then Henry and company will be the critical piece of any title picture. His team-high nine tackles in the Cardinals 42-20 win at Indiana demonstrated Henry‘s value.

Key Player (Rockets) – Alex Steigerwald, PK

Historically, Toledo has been involved in some extremely tight MAC games, and it likely will need Steigerwald to hit a clutch field goal and win one of those before 2008 is over. He connected from 33 yards with 15 seconds left to send the Fresno State game into overtime.

Ball State by 10