The conference’s marquee game of the week features two clubs who still expect to compete with Ohio State for the Big Ten title. Illinois has suffered its lumps but no one doubts this is a dangerous team capable of giving opponents fits. Penn State has strolled through its early-season schedule, mostly because it has yet to face an opponent worthy of mention. Joe Paterno has a defense that has played better than expected; the Nittany Lions rank first in total defense and second in sacks. How well that group does at containing Juice Williams and the Illini’s fleet of offensive weapons will decide the outcome of this game.

It’s no surprise that Williams leads the Big Ten in total offense (722 yards passing and 219 yards rushing) but it is a surprise that the Illini have scored more touchdowns through the air (seven) than on the ground (five). The Nittany Lions have long had one of the conference’s better secondaries, and it’s a unit that has allowed just two passing scores and collected seven interceptions. Williams must make wise decisions playing in unfriendly Beaver Stadium if his team is to escape with a win.

All of the above is window dressing as compared to the real story behind this game – Penn State’s rushing game versus Illinois’ run defense. The Nittany Lions are the only Big Ten team to have gained more than 1,000 yards on the ground this season, while Illinois’ 10th ranked run defense has allowed 4.5 yards per carry.

Notes:

Penn State leads the Big Ten in total offense and total defense. Its 27 touchdowns are eight more than the next closest conference team, and it has gained 70 yards more than Illinois per contest.

Illini running back Daniel Dufrene’s workload increased last week (22 touches) and the junior proved capable of shouldering a bigger load. Dufrene has had a carry of 25 or more yards in each contest, but he’s facing a Nittany Lion run defense which gives up just 1.8 per carry.

Last year Illinois took advantage of four Penn State turnovers to beat the Nittany Lions, 27-20.

Key Player (Illini) – Arrelious Benn, WR

Benn is the wild card in the Illinois offense – the one player who could spoil Penn State’s plan to silence the Illini. Benn has been sluggish to start the year (just one catch in the last game) but in last year’s meeting he had six catches and two scores (one on a 90-yard kickoff return).

Key Player (Nittany Lions) – Evan Royster, RB

Royster should have a field day against a unit that struggled to contain both Missouri and Eastern Illinois. On 47 carries this year Royster has averaged 8.1 yards.

Penn State by 6