2008 Weekend On Tap: Week 4

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our team pages to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and Five Burning Questions.

West Virginia (-3) at Colorado (Thursday)

At first glance, I was a bit surprised to see West Virginia as a 3-point favorite on the road. But then when you dive into Colorado’s body of work so far in 2008, the line makes a bit more sense. The Buffs beat a bad Colorado State team 38–17 in the opener but then struggled to defeat Eastern Washington in Week 2. The CU offense managed only 351 total yards, including 99 on the ground. West Virginia, obviously, hasn’t been overly impressive so far this season, but this is still a very talented offensive team. Quarterback Pat White and tailback Noel Devine give the Mountaineers two special skill players who will be difficult for the Colorado defense to slow down. It’s time for West Virginia to flex its muscles.

West Virginia 31, Colorado 21

Florida (-7.5) at Tennessee

While it lacks the history of some of the great rivalries in the South, Florida vs. Tennessee has arguably been the SEC’s most intense annual match-up since the league expanded to 12 teams in the early 1990s. Thanks in large part to Steve Spurrier, Florida holds a 12–5 advantage since the split, and that includes an impressive 5–3 mark in Knoxville. This year, the Gators, ranked No. 1 by Athlon Sports in the preseason, are heavy favorites to win once again at Neyland Stadium. Despite winning their first two games by a combined score of 82–13, the general feeling in Gainesville is that Urban Meyer’s club has yet to hit its stride. With Percy Harvin expected to be at full speed, the Gators are hoping to unleash their complete arsenal on the Vols. There is quite a bit of unrest in Knoxville, due largely to Tennessee’s Week 1 collapse against UCLA, a team that lost its next game 59–0. The Vols have a stable of big-time backs and a veteran offensive line; why Jonathan Crompton has thrown the ball 72 times in two games is a mystery to Vols fans everywhere. Run the ball, Tennessee. Run the ball.

Florida 31, Tennessee 23

Baylor (+14) at UConn

Baylor is fresh off a 45–17 win over Washington State, the program’s most decisive victory over another BCS conference foe since a 49–21 win over Iowa State in 1996. The Bears are 2–0 since true freshman Robert Griffin was inserted into the starting lineup at quarterback. For the season, the former Houston commitment (to play for Art Briles) has completed 33-of-53 passes for 548 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions, and he has added 288 yards rushing and four scores on 32 carries. The majority of that production has come against Division I-AA Northwestern State and Washington State, which is shaping up to be the worst BCS conference team west of Syracuse. Speaking of Syracuse, SU alum Randy Edsall has his UConn Huskies 3–0 with wins over Hostra, Temple (ot) and Virginia. Junior Donald Brown has been sensational, with 566 yards and eight scores on 79 carries, including 200-plus yards in both games vs. I-A foes. The Huskies’ defense has been stout, giving up a total of 22 points in three games. But UConn has yet to face an offense as capable as Baylor’s or a player as explosive as Griffin. This one should be interesting.

UConn 34, Baylor 31

LSU (-2) at Auburn

For the first time since 2002, the home team is not favored in this annual clash of SEC powers. In ’02, Nick Saban’s LSU Tigers were a four-point favorite at Jordan-Hare Stadium but returned to Baton Rouge with a 31–7 loss. Despite being 3–0, Auburn has been underwhelming offensively, most noticeably in a 3–2 win at Mississippi State last Saturday. Tony Franklin’s no-huddle, spread attack was supposed to force the tempo and give the Tigers noticeably more snaps, but Auburn is averaging 73 plays per game in 2008, up only four from last year’s more conventional offense. Even considering the fact that there are fewer plays in each game due to the changes in the clock this season, I’m sure Franklin was expecting a faster tempo from his offense. While the Auburn offense is working through some issues, there is nothing wrong with the defense. The Tigers have allowed a total of 15 points in three games and are giving up 213.7 yards per game. That defense will be tested by an LSU offense that has leaned heavily on its running game en route to two easy wins over inferior opponents. Charles Scott has emerged from a crowded backfield and has rushed for 160 yards and 102 yards (on an 11.4-yard average) in LSU’s first two games. With both teams untested at the quarterback position, the running game will be of paramount importance. Both teams have quality backs running behind a veteran offensive line, and both teams are stout on the defensive front. The winner of this game might not score more than 14 points.

LSU 14, Auburn 10

Wake Forest (+4) at Florida State

You can’t put too much importance on one game, but this is crucial for the mental health of the Florida State program. The Seminoles have lost two straight games to Wake Forest, including that sobering 30–0 debacle at Doak Campbell two years ago. After a few years of irrelevance in the ACC, Florida State has an opportunity to make a statement against a solid Demon Deacon team that is 2–0 with wins at Baylor and vs. Ole Miss. The Noles have jumped out of the gate with a 2–0 record as well, but those two wins have come against Division I-AA competition. So don’t read anything into Florida State’s gaudy stats (No. 2 in nation in scoring offense, No. 2 in scoring defense); the real test begins this Saturday in Tallahassee. And despite still being short-handed due to early season academic suspensions, Florida State has more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to win this game.

Florida State 28, Wake Forest 20

Virginia Tech (+1.5) at North Carolina

It’s a key ACC Coastal battle between the upstart North Carolina Tar Heels and a Virginia Tech club hoping to retain its spot as the division’s premier program. North Carolina recorded the biggest win of the brief Butch Davis era last Thursday night, rolling past Rutgers 44–12 on national television. The offense showed some much-needed big-play ability, and the defense was opportunistic. Virginia Tech is feeling better about itself after a key 20–17 win over Georgia Tech. The Hokies struggled in their first two games — a loss vs. East Carolina and a sluggish win vs. Furman — but showed some resiliency against the Yellow Jackets. Tyrod Taylor has settled into the quarterback position at Tech; last week, he completed 9-of-14 for 48 yards and ran for 74 yards and a score. For Carolina, T.J. Yates has been solid under center. Last year, he threw for a ton of yards (2,655) but threw 18 interceptions (14 TDs). So far this season, he is avoiding the mistakes. He has thrown five touchdowns and only one pick, including none in the win vs. Rutgers. If he can limit his mistakes, Carolina should be able to pick up win No. 3.

North Carolina 21, Virginia Tech 17 

Iowa (+1.5) at Pittsburgh

Iowa is the only team in the country that has not allowed a touchdown yet. Norm Parker’s defense allowed three points vs. Maine, pitched a shutout against FIU and limited Iowa State to a field goal in a 17–5 Iowa win. The Iowa offense will face its stiffest test of the season. Quarterback Richard Stanzi has unseated 2007 starter Jake Christensen, but the star of this attack has been tailback Shonn Greene, who is averaging 119.7 yards per game. We’re still trying to figure out if Pittsburgh is any good this year. As usual, the Panthers have talent, but as usual, they are underachieving. They followed up a season-opening loss at home to Bowling Green with workmanlike 27–16 win over Buffalo. This is huge barometer game for both teams. An Iowa win on the road vs. a talented Big East club could stamp the Hawkeyes as a real threat in the Big Ten, while Pittsburgh has an opportunity to prove that the loss to Bowling Green was merely a speed bump en route to the first winning season of the Dave Wannstedt era. Go with the former.

Iowa 27, Pittsburgh 21

Georgia (-7) at Arizona State

Arizona State lost more than a football game last Saturday night, when the Sun Devils were stunned by UNLV in overtime. ASU lost an opportunity to showcase its school and football program on national television. Yes, the game is still on TV (ABC in primetime), but ESPN GameDay had planned on setting up shop in Tempe for the much-anticipated showdown this weekend but shifted its destination to Auburn shortly after UNLV finished off the Devils late Saturday night. Now the obvious question: Was Arizona State simply looking ahead to Georgia, or are the Sun Devils not as good as we thought? The answer is more than likely somewhere in the middle, but Dennis Erickson has to be concerned about the psyche of his team. The ASU defense didn’t give up a ton of yards (345) to UNLV, but Rebel quarterback Omar Clayton completed over 60 percent of his passes and threw two TDs and no picks, and tailback Frank “The Tank” Summers averaged 4.7 yards per carry en route to a 103-yard night. If the Devils had trouble with the Tank, how can they expect to slow down Knowshon Moreno?

Georgia 31, Arizona State 20   

Utah (-7.5) at Air Force

Troy Calhoun is at it again. One year after guiding the Falcons to a surprising 9–4 record (6–2 MWC), Calhoun has Air Force off to a 3–0 start with wins over Southern Utah, at Wyoming and vs. Houston in Dallas. In the win vs. Houston, the Falcons failed to complete a pass but rushed for 380 yards. For the season, AFA quarterback Shea Smith has completed a total of 11 passes. Utah has also been quite impressive in the early going; the Utes followed up the big win at Michigan with convincing victories over UNLV (42–21) and Utah State (58–10). Brian Johnson, now a fifth-year senior, has been solid at quarterback, and the running back duo of Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack is giving the Utes steady production. Last year, Air Force knocked off Utah 20–12 in Salt Lake City. The Utes should get their revenge in Colorado Springs, but it won’t be easy.

Utah 27, Air Force 20

Notre Dame (+8.5) at Michigan State

Notre Dame holds a 44–26–1 all-time record against the Spartans but is only 3–8 since 1997. Interestingly, those three wins have all come in East Lansing, where the two teams meet this Saturday. Notre Dame handled Michigan with surprising ease last week, topping the Wolverines 35–17 despite losing the total yardage battle 388 to 260. Thanks in large part to six Michigan turnovers, Notre Dame picked up its most important win of the past two seasons. Can the Irish improve to 3–0? The guess here is no. Michigan State looked decent in its only game vs. a BCS conference foe (38–31 loss at Cal) and has won its two other games by a combined score of 59–10. Senior quarterback Brian Hoyer is off to a tough start statistically, but one of his games (win over Florida Atlantic) was played in a constant downpour. The key is tailback Javon Ringer. Cal slowed down the All-America candidate in the opener (81 yards on 27 carries), but Eastern Michigan and FAU had no answer for the speedy senior. If Ringer tops the 150-yard mark and can open things up for Hoyer and his talented young receivers, the Spartans should be celebrating their first win at home vs. Notre Dame since 2000.

Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 21

Last week: 6–4 straight up (5–4–1 against the spread)
Season: 18–12 straight up (14–15–1 against the spread)

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