Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida

Teams: Michigan vs. Florida
Date: Jan. 1, 2008 at 1 p.m. Eastern
Location: Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

Analysis
Although the Wolverines would like to send Lloyd Carr out with a victory in his swan song as head coach, they got the worst possible draw they could imagine in the bowl season. The Wolverine defense has struggled to stop spread offenses and Florida is the best spread attack they will play this season.

Not only do the Wolverines need their best defensive effort of the year to win, they will need to find an offense of their own. Quarterback Chad Henne battled a shoulder injury during the final two months of the season and was clearly less than 100 percent in the season-ending loss to Ohio State. With Henne on the mend, the offense will give the ball 30-40 times to running back Mike Hart – who should be able to find running lanes against a suspect Florida defense. If Henne is healthy, the Gators have a young and suspect secondary, giving receiver Mario Manningham a chance to redeem his dismal performance against Ohio State.

Quarterback Tim Tebow continues to write the record book at Florida and he has to be salivating at the thought of playing the Wolverine defense – which gave up over 30 points to open the year against Appalachian State and Oregon. Not only will the Wolverines have to stop Tebow, but they have to find a way to contain receivers Percy Harvin and Andre Caldwell.

The Wolverines will be motivated to play in Lloyd Carr’s final game on the sidelines, but they have a tall task ahead. If the Gators can climb out to a lead, they will force the Wolverines out of their offensive gameplan and their struggles on defense against spread offenses could be too much to overcome.

Breakdown: Michigan
Campus Location: Ann Arbor, Mich.
Distance to Orlando: 1,150 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 18–20
2007 Season: 8–4, 6–2 Big Ten

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 44 (166)
Pass Offense: 73 (207)
Scoring Offense: 68 (26)
Rush Defense: 56 (151)
Pass Defense: 7 (180)
Scoring Defense: 23 (20)
Turnover Margin: 26 (0.50)

Additional Notes:
Michigan has won seven out of their last eight bowl games in Florida and have compiled an overall 7-4 record … The 2008 Capital One Bowl will mark the Wolverines’ 33rd-straight appearance in a bowl game – which leads the NCAA … The Wolverines defeated the Gators 38-30 in the 2003 Outback Bowl, which is the only match-up between these two historic teams … Although injuries have limited running back Mike Hart this season, the senior has rushed for 100 or more yards in eight of his nine games.

Breakdown: Florida
Campus Location: Gainesville, Fla.
Distance to Orlando: 114 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 16–18
2007 Season: 9–3, 5–3 SEC

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 26 (198)
Pass Offense: 33 (264)
Scoring Offense: 4 (43)
Rush Defense: 10 (99)
Pass Defense: 86 (249)
Scoring Defense: 40 (24)
Turnover Margin: 47 (0.08)

Additional Notes:
Florida is the only team to rush and pass for a touchdown in every game this season … Quarterback Tim Tebow needs just one rushing touchdown to break the NCAA record for most rushing touchdowns in a season by a quarterback … Additionally, Tebow’s 51 touchdowns are more than 88 other teams in the FBS, as he has thrown and ran for a touchdown in every game this year … With the trip to the Capital One Bowl, the Gators will be making their 17th-straight appearance in a bowl game.

Prediction: Florida by 17

Del.icio.us | Digg it | Athlon Sports RSS Feeds