Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. California

Teams: Air Force vs. California
Date: Dec. 31, 2007 at 12:30 p.m. Eastern
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

Analysis
There are few secrets on offense for Air Force and California. The Falcons will rely on fourth-year starter Shaun Carney at quarterback getting the ball to MWC Player of the Year Chad Hall. Hall had 1,415 yards rushing and 488 receiving, the only player in the nation to lead his team in both categories. Air Force ironically is all about attacking on the ground, using the pass sparingly.

Cal is much more balanced, but relies heavily on senior running back Justin Forsett. He’ll get most of his yards running behind center Alex Mack. Cal’s defense seems better equipped to stop the run, and offers more balance on offense with quarterback Nate Longshore. But teams have lined up against Air Force all season emphasizing stopping the run, and yet the Falcons have run for nearly 300 yards a game.

Cal entered the season with high hopes for a Pac-10 title, but faded miserably down the stretch, losing its final three games, the last two to Washington and Stanford, the worst two teams in the league. Could the Air Force Academy possibly lose in the Armed Forces Bowl?

Breakdown: Air Force
Campus Location: Colorado Springs, Colo.
Distance to Fort Worth: 705 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 8–8–1
2007 Season: 9–3, 6–2 Mountain West Conference

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 2 (299)
Pass Offense: 118 (120)
Scoring Offense: 49 (29)
Rush Defense: 36 (131)
Pass Defense: 57 (226)
Scoring Defense: 18 (19)
Turnover Margin: 20 (0.67)

Additional Notes:
The Falcons are 9–0 when holding opponents under 31 points, 0–3 when opponents reach the 31-point mark … All three Air Force losses this season were to bowl teams … Chad Hall was named Player of the Year in the Mountain West Conference. Hall is third in the nation with 208.7 all-purpose yards per game … Troy Calhoun was honored as MWC Coach of the year … DB Carson Bird has nine takeaways on the season — six picks and three fumble recoveries … Air Force has played 180 consecutive games without being shutout. The streak dates to the 1992 Liberty Bowl when Ole Miss shut out the Falcons, 13–0 … Air Force is 1–2 vs. Pac-10 teams in bowls, and 1–0–1 in bowl games in Texas.

Breakdown: California
Campus Location: Berkeley, Calif.
Distance to Fort Worth: 1,707 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 8–8–1
2007 Season: 6–6, 3–6 Pac-10

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 48 (162)
Pass Offense: 51 (234)
Scoring Offense: 59 (28)
Rush Defense: 58 (152)
Pass Defense: 51 (223)
Scoring Defense: 53 (26)
Turnover Margin: 64 (-0.08)

Additional Notes:
Senior running back Justin Forsett, who hails from Arlington, Texas, was named first team All-Pac-10 after rushing for 1,406 yards and 13 touchdowns … Junior center Alex Mack was also named to the first team … Receivers Lavelle Hawkins and DeSean Jackson made second team … Cal has won six of its last eight bowl games dating to 1990 … The Bears are 2–0 vs. teams currently in the Mountain West in bowl games. They defeated Wyoming in 1900 and BYU in 2005 … This is Cal’s fifth straight bowl trip, the longest streak in school history … Cal leads the series with Air Force 5-2 winning the last meeting in 2004.

Prediction: Air Force by 2

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