Florida (11–1, 7–1) vs. Arkansas (10–2, 7–1)
Game Time: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 6:00 p.m. ET
Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga.

The chance of reaching the BCS title game is a long shot for Florida and non-existent for Arkansas, but there is still plenty at stake for these two teams Saturday night in Atlanta.

The winner will earn a spot in a lucrative BCS bowl and claim a championship in the nation’s top conference.

“It’d be really huge,” said Arkansas coach Houston Nutt. “That’s one of the things I really want to do. I've been wanting to hand Coach (Frank) Broyles, our athletic director, this trophy for a long time. Our league is so tough and it’s so hard to get to this point, and now that we’re here, I want to be able to hand this trophy to him.”

Arkansas, which entered the league in 1992, has not won an SEC title. The Hogs have appeared in the SEC Championship Game twice, losing to Florida 34–3 in 1995 and Georgia 30–3 in 2002. Florida, meanwhile, will be making its seventh trip to the league title game but its first since 2001. After losing the inaugural championship game to Alabama in 1992, the Gators, led by Steve Spurrier, won four straight titles from 1993-96. They have not, however, won a championship since, and the Gator fans are getting restless.

“We were fortunate enough to play in the first five SEC Championship games in the ‘90s,” Florida coach Urban Meyer said. “We’ve had a bit of a dry spell, but we’re excited to be going back to Atlanta.”

To enjoy success in Atlanta, Florida will have to be more productive on offense. This is a team that has not scored more than 25 points against a I-A team since September. LSU proved last week that Arkansas is beatable — but you are going to have to put some points on the board.

The Arkansas offense might be one dimensional, but that one dimension is very, very good. Against a ferocious LSU defense that excels at stopping the run, the Razorbacks managed 298 yards on the ground even though the Tigers knew what was coming. Darren McFadden rushed for 182 yards on 21 carries (8.7 per attempt), while his running mate Felix Jones picked up 137 on 16 carries (8.6).

The Arkansas passing attack was non-existent — Casey Dick completed 3-of-17 passes for 29 yards — yet the Hogs were still able to run the ball with tremendous success. And they scored four offensive touchdowns against a defense that had given up a total of 11 TDs in seven previous SEC games.

Scoring points against Arkansas won’t be easy. Prior to their 31–26 loss to LSU, the Hogs had not allowed more than 20 points in regulation in any SEC game. They do a good job against the run and the pass, thanks in part to a very good defensive line that features some big-time playmakers.

Florida will have to establish a running game, something the Gators have had trouble doing on a consistent basis. In last week’s 21–14 win at Florida State, three Gator tailbacks combined to rush for 12 yards on 12 attempts. Florida does manage to pick up rushing yards by doing things with the quarterback and the receivers, but at some point you are going to need to get some production from your running backs.

Motivation should not be an issue for either club — an SEC title is at stake, after all — but Arkansas might be the more relaxed team. Florida is still holding out hope for a shot in the BCS title game, but the Gators know they have to not only win, but win big, to impress the voters. There will be pressure on this offense to put plenty of points on the board. Will this pressure work against the Gators? Who knows.

Nutt will have his Arkansas team relaxed and ready to play. The Razorbacks are the underdog and should play without any additional pressure of impressing pollsters and/or BCS bowl representatives. It’s pretty simple: a win puts the Hogs in a BCS bowl while a loss takes them out of consideration for an at-large spot.

Arkansas 24, Florida 17

 

 

This week’s StatShark Game Forecast brought to you by ZEP Manufacturing. The StatShark Game Forecast gives you the results of 10,000 game simulations and key player statistics before this week's game.

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