Auburn (9–2) at Alabama (6–5)
Game Time: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 3:30 p.m. CT

Perhaps no coach in the country needs a win this weekend more than Alabama’s Mike Shula. Beating Auburn wouldn’t cure all of his ills, but it sure would help. The Crimson Tide have lost to the hated Tigers four straight years, including the last three on Shula’s watch.

And if you look at Alabama’s resume — a 2–5 SEC record featuring a loss at home to Mississippi State — it would be easy to assume a fifth-straight defeat is inevitable. But for a team with nine wins, Auburn certainly has plenty of issues. The Tigers are fresh off a stunning 37–15 loss at home to a Georgia club that had lost four of five. The Tigers’ offense, so efficient early in the season, has struggled against quality competition for most of the year.

Due largely to various injuries, tailback Kenny Irons has not enjoyed a banner senior season. He has been solid — third in the SEC with 81.8 yards per game — but not the All-America-type campaign most Tiger fans were expecting.

Quarterback Brandon Cox has struggled at times, due in part to an underwhelming cast of receivers. Last week, Cox completed 4-of-12 passes for 35 yards with four interceptions against Georgia. That type of production, obviously, will not cut it against the Tide, either.

Alabama, too, has struggled on offense this season. Surprisingly, it’s been the running game that has been the problem for much of the year. For whatever reason, Kenneth Darby has failed to duplicate his production from his sophomore and junior seasons. John Parker Wilson has been solid in his debut as a starter, but the offense has bogged down in the red zone far too often due largely to the team’s inability to run the ball. The Tide have not score more than 20 points in regulation in any SEC game this season. 

Both Alabama and Auburn have done a good job taking care of the ball this season, ranking second and fourth, respectively, in the SEC in turnover margin. The Tigers, featuring kicker John Vaughn and punter Kody Bliss, have the edge in the kicking game.

And this game could very well come down to a key special teams play. Neither offense has been playing well enough to take control of the game. Auburn is the more talented team, but Alabama should be playing with a sense of urgency that we haven’t seen all season. The players realize how big this game is — and not just for their coach. No current Alabama player has tasted victory in the Iron Bowl, and that should be a huge motivating factor for the Tide’s senior class.

Alabama by 3

 

 

This week’s StatShark Game Forecast brought to you by ZEP Manufacturing. The StatShark Game Forecast gives you the results of 10,000 game simulations and key player statistics before this week's game.

Del.icio.us | Digg it | Athlon Sports RSS Feeds