Think Twice

Each week Athlon will look deeper at the weekly match-ups and offer fantasy players analysis on who to start and who to think twice about. To be clear, these lists will not feature names like Graham Harrell or Tim Tebow. Those players are first round picks and are no-brain starts every week. This is a list of guys who normally would not be starters and maybe should get a second look this week because of a favorable match-up. Or, a player who might normally be in a starting line-up but is in for a poor showing this weekend.

Quarterback Rankings:

Deserves a Second Look
Josh Freeman, Kansas State (North Texas)
Expect the third stage of Freeman's maturation process to begin with a bang. The potent North Texas offense should score enough to keep the game just close enough that Freeman will have to play most of the time. With loads of JUCO talent dotting the offense, any game work is good work at this point.

Case Keenum, Houston (Southern)   
New coach Kevin Sumlin would like to get the young Case Keenum some experience early in this season – as well as start his Cougar career with a bang – so do not look for him to let of the gas pedal until late in the second half. Keenum could have a massive fantasy day.

Jevan Snead, Ole Miss (Memphis)
The talented Texas transfer will take his first snaps for the Ole Miss Rebels and it will be against rival Memphis. Look for Houston Nutt to get his prized quarterback in a groove early against inferior competition.

Gary Rogers, Wassu (Oklahoma St – Seattle)
This Cougars team will not be able to stop the Cowboys attack so look for plenty of passing in Seattle this weekend. Both teams will score and Rogers could end up as a top flight fantasy play this week. The game is being dubbed the ‘Shootout in Seattle.’

Better Think Twice
Jake Locker, Washington (@ Oregon)
He is nursing an injury and going up against one the nation’s best secondaries on the road in a major conference rivalry in the first week of his sophomore season. Is that enough?

Juice Williams, Illinois (Missouri – St. Louis)
This is a tricky spot because the game means so much to both teams that one or the other coming out flat is not likely. However, Juice got knocked out of last year’s match-up and Eddie McGee had to finish the game. The Missouri defense is a bit underrated so temper the expectations for the Fighting Zookers.

Brian Johnson, Utah (@ Michigan)
All summer long the pundints have been calling for this upset in Ann Arbor. Its not gonna happen. The Wolverines are loaded in the secondary and will be stifling for a quarterback returning from injury.

Rusty Smith, FAU (@ Texas)
A trip to Texas is no way to start the fantasy season. Smith will be a stud this season but a huge game in Austin is not likely. A suspect secondary might convince owner to play Trusty Rusty but it is a risky proposition.

Running Back Rankings:

Deserves a Second Look   
Mike Goodson, Texas A&M (Arkansas State)
This kid was already poised for a breakout season, but a questionable Jorvorskie Lane makes Goodson an even better play this week. This Aggie has speed to burn and can be used in all facets of the offense.

Da’Rel Scott, Maryland (Delaware)
Morgan Green has been nursing a bit of an injury and so Scott has grasped the starting job cleanly. The Fighting Blue Hens should be no match for a Ralph Freidgen offense.

Chris Rainey, Florida (Hawaii)
The speedy Gator has been a chic pick all summer long and Athlon has tried to temper expectations as the backfield is filled with options. However, in what should be a 30+ point differental, Rainey could collect some very productive garbage time.

Stephfon Green, Penn State (Coastal Carolina)
The Big Ten's version of Chris Rainey will play the role of janitor in Happy Valley. Green is the fastest player on the roster and will likely get plenty of opportunities in second half mop-up duty in what should be a very one-sided game.

Better Think Twice
Darrell Mack, Utah (@ Michigan)
The Wolverines return loads of talent, speed and strength on defense. The Maize and Blue will certainly not take a lower ranked mid-major on opening weekend lightly. Oh and Mack might be sharing carries all season. Stay away.

Ryan Mathews, Fresno State (@ Rutgers)
One-T Mathews will have a tough go of it against a solid Scarlet Knight defense. Primetime Labor Day night television will certainly have the Piscataway crowd fired up. Emotions will be high on defense.

Kahlil Bell / Raymond Carter, UCLA (Tennessee)
The Tennessee defensive front is not of normal Tennessee lore, but still adequate. The real issue is the worst BCS offensive line in the nation. Not to mention both runners are coming back off knee surgeries. It could be a recipe for disaster.

Rodney Ferguson, New Mexico (TCU)
Last season Ferguson mustered only 28 yards on 13 carries against TCU last season. Two years ago he finished with 71 yards on 21 carries. That is a whopping 2.9 yards-per-carry. The red-lights are officially flashing.

Wide Receiver Rankings:

Deserves a Second Look
Deon Murphy, Kansas State (North Texas)
The Mean Green will not be able to contain quarterback Josh Freeman. Murphy looks to have a breakout season and this game could catapult him into the upper echelon of fantasy receivers after only one week.

Anyone in the SMU/Rice game, (@ Rice)
Emmanuel Sanders appears to be the top option in the June Jones offense but Hawaii had three legit fantasy plays each week at wide receiver. Rice has stud Jarrett Dillard lining up on the outside. Play them all, then sit back and watch the show Friday night.

Detron Lewis, Texas Tech (Eastern Washington)
This one passing offense that the blowout rule does not apply to. Even if the score is 35-0, Mike Leach will still be throwing the ball. And Lewis could end up as the No. 2 on this team.

Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (Washington State – Seattle)
The shootout in Seattle strikes again. Both teams should score points and Bryant is now the guy for fantasy stud Zac Robinson. Look for triple digits in yards and a pair of scores for the Lufkin, Texas native.

Better Think Twice
Percy Harvin, Florida (Hawaii)
Rumors are swirling that Harvin may miss more than just the Gators’ season opener. Fantasy players that drafted the dynamic athlete in the first couple round will have more than a week one start-or-sit to worry about if that is the case. For now, he is obviously on the bench.

Brian Robiskie, Ohio State (Youngstown State)
This game will be about Beanie Wells, Maurice Wells and Brandon Saine. The ground game will get them so far ahead that the passing offense is likely to be dormant the entire second half. He may get into the end zone but upside is very limited.

Jamarko Simmons, Western Michigan (@ Nebraska)
The Bronco offense has a lot of nice options. Just not when they travel to Lincoln, Neb. The Huskers are looking to kick-start the Bo Pelini era in style and Big Red will be fired up on defense. Look for a slow start from the Western Michigan offense in 2008.

Casey Fitzgerald, North Texas (@ Kansas State)
The Mean Green may have to throw late as they will be trailing by a wide margin so a strong second half might save fantasy owners. However, the reason they will be way behind is because they will struggle to accomplish anything in the first three quarters.

Tight End Rankings:
The tight end position is generally an easy position to preview each week as there is very little movement in the ranks. If an owner has an elite tight end, he is a start every week. Tight ends are such a schizophrenic position to project as even the cream of the crop are up and down from week to week. Do not stress over Travis Beckum’s or James Casey’s match-up. Plug them into the starting line-up and forget about it.

Having said that, there are a few names to watch. If Rob Gronkowski owners need a quick fix for mono, Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew or Houston’s Mark Hafner are solid fill ins.

Defensive Rankings:
Except for the unlucky few with touch match-ups in week one, most high-level defenses are taking on the likes of  Youngstown State (Ohio State) or Chattanooga (Oklahoma). Kansas, Boise State and Tennessee are just a few of many defense that have favorable match-ups this opening weekend. 

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