Bracket Breakdown: The Field of 68
Is Duke still in the hunt for a No. 1 seed?
By: Mitch Light | 3/9/12, 9:48 AM EST
By Mitch Light
Selection Sunday is just days away. Here's a conference-by-conference look at the Field of 68, as of Friday morning.
In: Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
Worth a mention: NC State
Notes: NC State is over .500 in the ACC (9–7) and technically has no top-50 RPI wins. But it does have two wins over Miami (No. 55) and one over Texas (No. 52) — and two of those came away from home. The Pack need to beat Virginia in the ACC quarters to have a chance. The biggest intrigue in Atlanta surrounds Duke and North Carolina. The Tar Heels appear to be in decent shape to land a No. 1 seed, but Duke could play its way into that spot if it wins the ACC Tournament.
American East (1)
In: Stony Brook
In: Dayton, Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier
Worth a mention: Saint Joseph's
Notes: Xavier and Dayton were the two final teams in the field as of Friday morning. It’s tough to differentiate between these two rivals. Xavier’s computer numbers are a bit better, but Dayton has better wins. Xavier did win at Vanderbilt, but the Commodores were missing center Festus Ezeli at the time. Dayton has wins over Alabama (at full strength), at Temple (not at full strength), vs. Saint Louis and vs. Ole Miss. This debate will be settled on the court, however, as these two rivals play in the A-10 Tournament tomorrow night in Atlantic City. The winner should be in decent shape. The loser could still be in, but it will be very close.
Big 12 (6)
In: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Texas picked up a huge win over Iowa State Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament. The Horns are in good shape.
Big East (10)
In: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
Worth a mention: None
Notes: West Virginia is still in decent shape, even after blowing a lead vs. UConn in the Big East Tournament. Seton Hall, with seven top-100 RPI wins, is on shaky ground; beating Louisville Wednesday night would have ended any doubt. South Florida was impressive in its win over Villanova on Wednesday, but let one get away vs. Notre Dame on Thursday. Seton Hall and South Florida will be sweating Selection Sunday.
Big Sky (1)
Big South (1)
Big Ten (6)
In: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Worth a mention: Northwestern
Notes: Northwestern’s chances took a huge hit with the OT loss to Minnesota on Thursday. Simply put, it’s hard to put a team that is only 1–10 vs. RPI top-50 teams into the field. The Wildcats have had ample opportunities to get that ‘big’ win, but only did so once — vs. Michigan State at home.
Big West (1)
In: Long Beach State.
In: Drexel, VCU
Notes: Drexel snuck in on Thursday night after Mississippi State lost to Georgia. The Dragons don’t have the profile of an NCAA team — they have one win over a top-80 RPI team (VCU at home) and have three losses to teams ranked 120 or lower — but Bruiser Flint’s club did win 27 games and dominate the CAA. This one is tough.
In: Memphis, Southern Miss
Worth a mention: Iona
Iona is 25–7 with an RPI of 40. The Gaels have four top-100 wins but also have two losses to teams ranked 220 or worse. It’s hard to pick between Iona and Drexel.
In: Norfolk State
In: Creighton, Wichita State
In: Colorado State New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Colorado State picked up a convincing 81–60 win over TCU in the MWC quarterfinals on Thursday. The Rams are in.
In: Long Island
In: Murray State
Pac 12 (1)
Worth a mention: Arizona, Oregon, Washington
Notes: Washington suffered a crushing blow in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, losing to Oregon State. The Huskies won the regular season but do not have a win vs. a team ranked in the top-80 of the RPI. That is stunning. Arizona has only one win to brag about, at Cal in early February. The Cats might have to win the league tourney to get in. Oregon (RPI 63, KenPom 63) played well down the stretch but lost to Colorado in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. The Ducks are done.
In: Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Worth a mention: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Notes: Mississippi State played its way out Thursday night with a loss to Georgia — its second of the season to the Dawgs — in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Crushing. Tennessee has two wins over Florida and a win at home vs. Vanderbilt, but there also several warts on the résumé. They are 17–13 overall (win vs. Chaminade doesn’t count) and have four losses to 100+ RPI teams. This is a good team that might have to reach the SEC semis to warrant serious consideration. Ole Miss will have to beat Tennessee on Friday night to remain in the picture. The Rebels have some solid wins — Alabama (with JaMychal Green back in the lineup), Miami, Mississippi State — but also has a lot of losses (12).
In: South Dakota State
Worth a mention: Oral Roberts
ORU’s résumé looks similar to Drexel’s and Iona’s — a lot of wins, but not a lot of good ones. In a normal year, this team wouldn’t have much of a shot at an at-large bid. But this isn’t a normal year.
Sun Belt (1)
In: Western Kentucky
In: Mississippi Valley State
In: BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Notes: BYU has solid numbers (RPI 46, KenPom 48), and six of the Cougars’ eight losses have come against teams ranked in the RPI top 30.
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