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December 31, 2009 Bracket Breakdown

Mitch Light's first Bracket Breakdown of the season is right here with 65 teams that would be in if the season ended today, a few more that are worth a mention and plenty of notes on the 2009 portion of the college hoops season.

ACC (5)

In: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Worth a mention: Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech

Notes: Wake Forest’s win at Gonzaga will end up being one of the best wins for any bubble team this season — assuming the Deacons remain on the bubble. Georgia Tech has a ton of talent but does not have an NCAA Tournament-worthy resume at this point. The Yellow Jackets beat a decent George Mason team in Puerto Rico, a disappointing Siena team at home and a pre-Mike Gerrity USC team at home. They lost to Dayton on a neutral court and dropped a key home game to Florida State to open the ACC slate. Miami is 12–1 with a schedule strength of 310.

America East (1)

In: Stony Brook

Atlantic-10 (5)

In: Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple, Xavier

Worth a mention: Charlotte

Notes: I doubt the A-10 will end up with five teams, but this league has great depth this season. Richmond has three losses (at William & Mary, at VCU, at South Carolina), but the Spiders beat Missouri, Florida and Mississippi State on neutral courts. Xavier has four losses, but they’ve all been reputable. Rhode Island is 10–1 with wins vs. Providence and at Boston College and a loss at VCU. The Rams have a big game vs. Oklahoma State this weekend. Charlotte won at Louisville, but the Cards weren’t at full strength.

A-Sun (1)

In: Belmont

Big 12 (6)

In: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Worth a mention: Baylor, Missouri

Notes: Baylor is a lot like Georgia Tech: Tournament talent but not a Tournament resume, right now. The Bears have wins vs. Xavier and Arizona State, but a neutral court loss to Alabama could be damaging — depending on how Bama does in the SEC. Missouri’s RPI is in the 100s right now.

Big East (7)

In: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, St. John’s, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia

Worth a mention: Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall

Notes: It’s likely that the Big East will get more than seven teams into the field, but several of these teams need to beef up their resume. Pittsburgh somehow has a very high RPI (33), but the Panthers don’t have many (if any) marquee wins. Beating Wichita State, Duquesne, Kent State and DePaul is nice, but that doesn’t scream NCAA Tournament team. A blowout loss to Indiana doesn’t help, either. Seton Hall’s 0–2 start at home in Big East play will have the Pirates battling up hill the rest of the season. Cincinnati’s is in the field after beating UConn last night.

Big Sky (1)

In: Montana

Big South (1)

In: Radford

Big Ten (6)

In: Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Worth a mention: Illinois

Notes: Northwestern’s attempt to make the field for the first time ever will get a big boost if the Cats can win at Illinois in the Big Ten opener. Their non-conference resume isn’t quite as impressive as it appears at first. The schedule strength is 134 and the ‘marquee’ wins are against three Big Six conference teams not currently projected to make the field — Notre Dame, Iowa State and NC State. Illinois has a great win at Clemson, a nice win over Vanderbilt, but the Illini have lost to Utah, Bradley and Georgia (as well as Missouri).

Big West (1)

In: Long Beach State

Colonial (3)

In: Old Dominion, VCU, William & Mary

Notes: William & Mary opened the season with losses at UConn and Harvard (three OT), but has since won seven straight, including victories over Richmond, Wake Forest and VCU. ODU has four losses (Missouri, Mississippi State, Richmond and Dayton), but the Monarchs have a good RPI (35) and a great win — at Georgetown.

C-USA (1)

In: UAB

Worth a mention: Memphis, Tulsa, UTEP

Notes: Memphis can help its cause with a win over Tennessee this weekend. The loss at UMass was damaging. Tulsa has a win over Oklahoma State but has lost to Missouri State, Nebraska and Nevada.

Horizon (1)

In: Butler

Ivy (1)

In: Cornell

MAAC (1)

In: Siena

MAC (1)

In: Buffalo

MEAC (1)

In: Morgan State

MVC (1)

In: Northern Iowa

Worth a mention: Missouri State, Wichita State

Notes: Wichita State’s loss to Illinois State Tuesday night bumped the Shockers’ RPI to the 100-plus range. So despite a win over Texas Tech, the Shockers are on the outside right now. Missouri State has a good RPI (39) and a gaudy record (11–1), but it’s very, very difficult to find any good wins on that schedule. And the loss, at Arkansas, is bad.

MWC (3)

In: BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

Worth a mention: San Diego State

Notes: All three teams are solidly in. San Diego State has a win over struggling Arizona, but they Aztecs lost by 22 at Saint Mary’s, by eight at Pacific and by three at Arizona State.

Northeast (1)

In: Long Island

OVC (1)

In: Austin Peay

Pac-10 (3)

In: Cal, USC, Washington

Worthy a mention: Washington State

Notes: USC has won six straight games, most notably a 77–55 victory at home vs. Tennessee, plus neutral court wins over Saint Mary’s and UNLV in Hawaii. Those are three very good Ws for Kevin O’Neill’s team. Washington State is good team that lacks good wins.

Patriot (1)

In: Army

SEC (5)

In: Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Worth a mention: Alabama, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Notes: Vanderbilt was bumped out due to Cincinnati’s win vs. UConn. The Commodores do have a huge win at Saint Mary’s — nobody wins in Moraga — but they also lost to Western Kentucky. Florida was hot early, but a three-game losing streak (including losses to Richmond and South Alabama) has damaged the Gators’ profile.

Southern (1)

In: Western Carolina

Southland (1)

In: UT-San Antonio

Summit (1)

In: IUPUI

Sun Belt (1)

In: Western Kentucky

SWAC (1)

In: Prairie View A&M

WAC (1)

In: Louisiana Tech

WCC (1)

In: Gonzaga

Worth a mention: Portland, Saint Mary’s

Notes: This league got a lot of buzz early, but Portland has dropped off the map after its hot start. Saint Mary’s was the last team not to make the field. It came down to Saint Mary’s and Vanderbilt, and the Commodores’ win in Moraga was the difference. The Gaels’ best wins are at Utah State and at Oregon.




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