Head Coach: Roy Williams
2008-09 Record (ACC): 34–4 (13–3)
2008-09 Postseason: NCAA: Defeated Radford 101–58, defeated LSU 84–70, defeated Gonzaga 98–77, defeated Oklahoma 72–60, defeated Villanova 83–69, defeated Michigan State 89–72 for the national title
Key Losses: G Wayne Ellington (15.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), F/G Danny Green (13.1 ppg, 1.3 bpg), F Tyler Hansbrough (20.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg), G Ty Lawson (16.6 ppg, 6.6 apg, 2.1 spg)

2009-10 ACC Prediction: 1st

Roy Williams felt a sense of relief after his first national championship in 2005, silencing critics who liked to point to his previous four fruitless trips to the Final Four — which included a pair of runner-up finishes at Kansas. Four years later, North Carolina’s coach made sure he savored his second NCAA title even more.

“I tried to make myself sit back and say, ‘Dadgum, this is pretty good,’” Williams says. “I played a little more golf in May, took some nicer trips. I played some of the worst golf in the best places you could possibly have.”

Williams, entering his seventh season as head coach at his alma mater, hit the links knowing that most of the key members of the 2009 National Champs wouldn’t be back.

The Tar Heels enter 2009-10 without their top four scorers from a year ago, all of whom were selected in the NBA Draft. That’s quite a bit of firepower gone from a balanced team that ranked second in the country in scoring (89.8 points per game) and among the nation’s top 20 in field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, free throw percentage, rebound margin and blocked shots.

But in many ways, this season will represent business as usual in Chapel Hill. Five McDonald’s All-Americans left town, but four more have showed up to take their place.

Plus, Williams has experience retooling after a national championship season. The Tar Heels lost their top seven scorers, including four NBA first-round draft choices, after winning it all in 2005. The next season, they went 23–8 and finished with a top-10 ranking.

“I’ve been shocked at how highly we’ve been picked,” Williams says. “Part of that is because of the recruiting class of five very solid players, and I understand that. And part of it is because the kids here tried to show people in ’06 that they were still pretty doggone good, and I think that’s what they’ll try to do this year, too.”

Frontcourt

North Carolina enters this season without Tyler Hansbrough, the ACC’s all-time leading scorer, yet boasts even more depth inside than it did a year ago. Crazy, huh? The Tar Heels welcome back senior Deon Thompson, who is adept at turning over either shoulder to score with his back to the basket.

Sophomore Ed Davis quickly established himself as one of the top rebounders and shot-blockers in the ACC, and classmate Tyler Zeller showed potential last season despite missing 23 games with a broken left wrist. UNC also brought in twins David and Travis Wear, a pair of 6'10" players who love to run the floor.

The Tar Heels will miss Hansbrough plenty — who wouldn’t? — but they also have to replace the versatility of Danny Green at small forward. John Henson, the most celebrated of all of UNC’s freshmen, could be a perfect fit. Long and lean, he can block shots, handle the ball, shoot from the outside and finish with either hand around the basket.

Backcourt

While the Tar Heels have answers inside, they face questions on the perimeter. Can sophomore Larry Drew, UNC’s only pure point guard, improve his jump shot and play at a level anything close to that of departed floor general Ty Lawson? Can defensive whiz Marcus Ginyard stay healthy after missing all but three games last season with a stress fracture in his left foot? Can Will Graves work himself back into the mix after being suspended from the team last season? How much will freshmen Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald be able to contribute?

“This is the least experience and least depth I’ve ever had on the perimeter, so it’s a huge area of concern for us,” Williams says. “Last year all you guys told me, ‘You have too many players. Isn’t that a concern?’ I said no, and it was the correct answer. This year if you ask me if I’m concerned about our lack of experience and lack of depth on the perimeter, I’ll say, ‘You’re darn right I am.’”

Final Analysis

The Tar Heels are loaded with talent, but they lack the experience that helped them grind out tough wins the last couple of seasons. That’s where Ginyard will have a huge influence as the team’s leader. If he can keep everyone together during tough times as David Noel did during the 2005-06 season, North Carolina will remain a force in the ACC. And if the Tar Heels come up with positive answers to their questions in the backcourt, they’ll have a chance to reach their third consecutive Final Four.