These things will absolutely occur in 2008-09

The college basketball season is already one week old, but it’s never too late to offer up some predictions for the upcoming season. After careful consideration, here’s a list of things we expect to happen during the 2008-09 season.

Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet will become the most feared player in college basketball

The UConn Huskies opened their season Friday night with an 81-55 victory over Western Carolina. Fourteen seconds into the game, point guard A.J. Price passed inside to Thabeet for a short jumper that gave the Huskies a 2-0 lead. Remember the symbolism of that moment. The Huskies may ride that combination all the way to the Final Four in Detroit.

“The guards now realize I can actually catch the ball and finish it up,” says Thabeet.

Go ahead and laugh. You remember him as the gangly and clumsy Tanzanian. A shot blocker and defender? Yes. Not exactly an offensive threat, right? You remember him dunking and falling to the floor, or kicking the ball out of bounds because he had such bad hands.

Those days are over. Thabeet thought about leaving for the NBA after his sophomore season. He will be richly rewarded for returning. Soon scouts will be lining up to see the nation’s most improved player. Coach Jim Calhoun and his UConn staff have already proclaimed Thabeet the most improved player in Calhoun’s tenure in Storrs. They are still marveling at the progress. More importantly, Thabeet understands he is better and his confidence is increasing daily.

“If I keep playing better the way I’m getting better, it’s going to be hard to stop somebody who is 7-foot-3, 272 pounds on the blocks,” Thabeet said. “I’ve got an idea what to do with the basketball now.

“The more confident you get, the more mentally ready you are. I’ll take the ball anytime and I know I can do something with it. Now I know when is the right time to take what kind of shot and the guys are finding me at the right time.”

Thabeet’s opening night line included 23 points (one short of his career high), 17 rebounds (a career high) and five blocks. The rebounds set a record for a UConn season opener under Calhoun and the most for a UConn player in any opener since Bill Corley grabbed 19 on Dec. 2, 1967. Western Carolina didn’t have the size to slow him down, but that’s not the point.

“He continues to get better,” Calhoun said. “Is he going to get 23 and 17 every night? No. But if he doesn’t average double doubles, I’d be more than disappointed.”

Calhoun expects Thabeet is capable of averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds, up from 10.5 and 7.9 last season. But that was his estimate after one game. Those numbers may have to be amended.

The new three-point line won’t cause a major uproar

The three-point line has been moved back from 19 feet-9 inches to 20 feet-9 inches. The new line is hardly noticeable on the floor and teams that shoot the three well will continue to shoot about the same percentage. The intent was to stretch defenses and open up the floor. Instead, the opposite might happen. Some coaches think teams will start packing defenses in. Said Notre Dame coach Mike Brey: “My question is will people really protect the paint, either in a sagging man-to-man or in a zone defense, like the old days when there wasn’t a line?” Like many coaches, Brey will be watching stats from early season games for trends.

Ten Big East teams will dance

The selection committee for the NCAA Tournament is charged with picking the best 34 at-large teams — regardless of conference affiliation. That will be put to the ultimate test when the committee meets in March. The Big East holds the record for most teams selected at eight, but that same conference is so deep and balanced this season the record should be broken. Nine may be the safe bet, but we’ll say 10 Big East teams are going dancing: UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown, West Virginia and Cincinnati.

North Carolina will not go undefeated

This is such a silly debate. Every year we count down the final handful of undefeated teams. It’s a natural thing to do, but Tar Heels coach Roy Williams knows it is an unrealistic goal, even with a team that is the first unanimous No. 1 since the AP preseason poll began in 1981-82. “I don’t think anyone can in today’s game,” Williams said recently when asked about the possibility of a perfect season. North Carolina has ACC road games against Wake Forest, Miami and Duke — all preseason Top 25 teams. Here’s the bottom line, if North Carolina heads into March healthy and with a full roster, it would take a really great performance by another team to keep the Tar Heels from an ACC title and a Final Four berth. After that, you’ve still got to beat two really good teams to become champions.

Four teams to keep an eye on

Arizona State: Herb Sendek has the Sun Devils back in the Pac-10 chase. Sophomore guard James Harden will be the best player in the conference.

Siena: All five starters are back for the Saints, who knocked off Vanderbilt in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Guard Kenny Hansbrouck and swingman Edwin Ubiles are All-MAAC Player of the Year candidates for coach Fran McCaffery.

Gonzaga: Is this finally the Final Four year for the Bulldogs and coach Mark Few? Could be. With Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin, Micha Downs, Austin Daye, Steven Gray and Josh Heytvelt back, the Bulldogs should make it to the Elite Eight.

Wake Forest: Coach Dino Gaudio has forward James Johnson and guard James Teague returning with exciting freshmen Al-Farouq Aminu, Ty Walker and Tony Woods adding much needed depth.

Fabulous Frosh

They might not be getting the hype of Kevin Durant or Michael Beasley, but the freshman class is good again. Here are a few newcomers that could make a big difference for their teams: Samardo Samuels, Louisville; Delvon Roe, Michigan State, DeMar DeRozan, USC; Jrue Holiday, UCLA; Greg Monroe, Georgetown; B.J. Mullens, Ohio State; and Kemba Walker, UConn.

Coaches with something to prove

These guys have something to prove this season: Ed DeChellis, Penn State; Bobby Gonzalez, Seton Hall; Frank Martin, Kansas State; Norm Roberts, St. John’s; Bruce Weber, Illinois; Bill Carmody, Northwestern; and Leonard Hamilton, Florida State.

Our deepest sympathies to:

Tom Crean, Indiana: The once-proud Hoosier program has been torn apart by Kelvin Sampson’s inability to step back and move away from the cell phone. This is going to be a long season for the Indiana faithful. But Crean is a good hire, a talented and young coach with a lot of energy. Big Ten teams better come prepared to play in Bloomington. Crean will find a way to pull off at least one major upset during conference play.
 
Craig Robinson, Oregon State: With the wars, the declining economy and health care problems, it’s safe to say President-elect Barack Obama will have the toughest job in America in 2009. But his brother in law, Craig Robinson, has walked into a mess at Oregon State too. The Beavers were 6-25 overall last season and 0-18 in the Pac-10. They lost their opener to Howard, 47-45. Robinson left Brown to take this job. At least he can visit the White House whenever he wants to.

Final Four

North Carolina, UConn, Pittsburgh and UCLA

National Champion

UConn. When do things ever go according to plan in college basketball? Sorry Tar Heels.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK

We know Duke won 82-79 Sunday at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but Rhode Island’s Jimmy Baron still gets our Big Man on Campus award for the first week of the season. The son of URI coach Jim Baron scored 21 of his 24 points in the second half and matched his career high with eight three-pointers as the Rams came close to a gigantic upset in Durham. The old three-point line gave us some imposters, but Jimmy Baron is a big-time shooter from any distance.

FRESHMAN OF THE WEEK

The defending national champions were off to a rough start against a bunch of Kangaroos before freshman forward Markieff Morris made a terrific first impression. Morris grabbed 15 rebounds as Kansas defeated Missouri-Kansas City 71-56. That’s the third best rebounding total by a KU freshman (Eric Chenowith had 20 against Texas A&M in 1998 and Raef LaFrentz had 16 against Missouri in 1995). Wayne Simien set the record in a debut performance with 11 rebounds in 2001. Morris scored seven points, all from the free throw line. “He had sweaty hands [before the game],” Kansas point guard Sherron Collins said of Morris’ nerves before the opener.

GAMES OF THE WEEK

Monday, Nov. 17
Mississippi Valley State at Oklahoma
This is must-see TV for your first look at Blake Griffin and the Sooners this season.

Tuesday, Nov. 18
Massachusetts at Memphis
With a midnight start, ESPN begins 23 consecutive hours of coverage with its College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon. Memphis coach John Calipari goes against the school he led to the Final Four and then abandoned during the Marcus Camby scandal. Puts a real lump in your throat, doesn’t it?

Kentucky at North Carolina
ESPN will simulcast this game on the ABC SuperSign in Times Square in New York.

Florida Gulf Coast at Kansas
The Jayhawks will raise their second 2008 national championship banner in Allen Fieldhouse. This is the permanent version. The first will ultimately reside in KU’s practice facility.

Thursday, Nov. 20
Missouri vs. Xavier
The Musketeers are favored to win the Atlantic 10 again.

Friday, Nov. 21
2K Sports Classic Benefiting Coaches vs. Cancer
The championship game comes to you from New York City. Thursday night’s semifinals feature Duke vs. Southern Illinois and UCLA vs. Michigan.

THEY SAID IT:

“Every day it’s like a box of chocolates.” — Kansas coach Bill Self, commenting to the Lawrence Journal-World on the adjustment to a young team relying on so many freshmen, one year after winning the national title with five NBA draft picks.

“I don’t think our guys expected the level of play. Don’t get me wrong. We respected Rhode Island. But they played at a really high level tonight. I thought it knocked us back.” — Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski after the Blue Devils battled back to beat Rhode Island.

“It’s like playing Ben Howland twice.” — Miami (Ohio) coach Charlie Coles, after losing to UCLA 64-59 Thursday and then beginning preparation for Jamie Dixon’s Pittsburgh team on Monday. Dixon was an assistant under Howland at Pitt.

NOTES:

The early signing period for recruiting ends Wednesday and there’s still no clear timetable for top-ranked Xavier Henry to announce his choice. Henry, a 6-foot-6 multi-dimensional guard, is choosing between Kansas and Memphis. Power forward Derrick Favors still hasn’t declared either. He is considering Georgia Tech, Georgia, North Carolina State, Memphis and Florida State.

North Carolina has the top recruiting class in the nation right now with commitments from John Henson, Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald, David Wear and Travis Wear.

Shooting guard Michael Snaer of Moreno Valley, Calif., surprised many with his selection of Florida State on Friday. Snaer went with the Seminoles over Missouri, Marquette, Kansas and UCLA.

A.J. Price’s latest comeback at UConn is off to a rough start. Price suffered a high ankle sprain in the season opener against Western Carolina and he isn’t expected to play Monday night against Hartford. Freshman Kemba Walker was expected to get his first start at UConn. Price went scoreless against Western Carolina and was ejected after being called for a flagrant foul.

Non-story of the week: Yahoo.com reported that Florida guard Nick Calathes “amassed a $600 debt playing poker online.” An internal investigation at Florida showed Calathes didn’t break any NCAA rules and didn’t do anything illegal.

Keno Davis was coach of the year at Drake last season but he has his hands full rebuilding at Providence College this season. The Friars lost their season opener Saturday to Northeastern 70-66. It was Northeastern’s first victory over Providence in 82 years.

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