2008 Mountain West Hoops Preview

The pressure on Beas Hamga is immense. UNLV returns three starters from a team that won 27 games and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Now Hamga, a redshirt freshman, joins the mix. He’s a 7-footer, averaged seven blocks per game as a senior in high school and ranks among the most acclaimed recruits in UNLV’s rich basketball history. Hamga said yes to the Runnin’ Rebels and no to more traditional powerhouses such as Kentucky and UConn.

Just think where this big man can take the Rebels. Wait a minute, says coach Lon Kruger in his always-polite tone. Give the kid some time.

“Expectations are a little lofty early on,” Kruger says. “He’s got a great attitude about wanting to be a good player and wanting to work hard, but it’s going to take time. He’s entering a team that’s got a lot of experience back, and it’s not like he would even have to try to dominate. The timing is good for him.”

Hamga, according to UNLV insiders, remains raw and will contribute this season almost exclusively on defense. He might become a great college player, but there’s much work to be done. Give him at least two seasons to grow.

Kruger has a point about his team’s strength and stability. The Rebels already boast a strong collection of talent and a growing sense of confidence. A couple years ago, Kruger remained a controversial figure in Vegas, but after two straight journeys to the NCAA, he’s beloved in Sin City, and big crowds are back at the Thomas and Mack Center. Kruger is the only coach in Vegas history other than the infamous Jerry Tarkanian to win an NCAA Tournament game.

This edition of the Rebels will be led by point guard Wink Adams, a blur on the court and one of the conference’s fastest players. He plays stifling defense, drops the three and can thread through defenders on drives to the rim. Kruger says Adams worked diligently in the offseason to lose weight and increase his strength. He could reign as the MWC’s premier guard this season.

Joe Darger played out-of-place last season at center but will move to power forward, a more natural fit, as Hamga resides in the post. Darger is a superb 3-point shooter — he shot 36.4 percent last year — and a decent rebounder. He needs to become a touch more surly this season.

Tre’Von Willis, a transfer from Memphis, could push the Rebels to big things. Willis is a terrific athlete who can play either shooting or point guard, and he’s a reckless, intense competitor.

“He really battles,” Kruger says.

And Kruger has a team that should battle. Dave Rose always finds a way to make BYU competitive, and Steve Alford has New Mexico back on the right track, but this should be UNLV’s year to rule in the Mountain West.

2. BYU (27–8, 14–2); Postseason Prediction: One and done

Under coach Dave Rose, BYU keeps getting better and keeps leaving room for improvement. The Cougars went 27–8 and won a second consecutive Mountain West Conference championship in 2007-08 but failed again in a quest for their first NCAA Tournament victory since 1993.

So the dual challenge for senior swingman Lee Cummard and the Cougars is to successfully defend their league title and take another shot at postseason success. They will do so without center Trent Plaisted, who left school a year early and was a second-round NBA Draft choice. Cummard, however, took his name out of the draft process and will return as a leading candidate for league Player of the Year honors. “There’s no doubt I could be a pro, but right now I think it’s best for me to stay in school,” Cummard says.

His return makes the Cougars contenders again, as they break in a new pair of starting guards for the third year in a row. Cummard will be expected to do everything, as usual. He averaged 15.8 points and 6.3 rebounds as a junior, but those numbers only begin to tell his story. He led the conference in field goal shooting (56.9 percent) and free throw shooting (85.7 percent) while also ranking in the league’s top 10 in assists and blocked shots. He would have finished third in 3-point accuracy (47.2) but didn’t hit enough to qualify.

The other returning starter is forward Jonathan Tavernari, a native of Brazil who spent the summer with his national team. Tavernari is a streaky shooter who broke a school record with 88 3-pointers as a sophomore, but he needs to improve his overall 39.5 percent shooting from the field while becoming a more well-rounded player.

Plaisted’s 15.6 points and 7.7 rebounds will not be easily replaced. Chris Miles will take over at center after averaging 2.5 points in limited action last season, and Gavin McGregor will return from injury to back him up.

In the backcourt, BYU had the unusual situation of using two senior starters each of the past two years. The Cougars will restock the guard positions again, this time with a sophomore ticketed for one of the spots.

Jimmer Fredette averaged 7.0 points as a freshman and played 34 minutes, mostly at point guard, in the NCAA Tournament loss to Texas A&M. Fredette will likely play both positions this year while being paired with any of several candidates.

Rose has re-established BYU as a dominant home team. After losing in his debut in November 2005, the Cougars have reeled off a school-record 47 straight wins in the Marriott Center.

Wake Forest will be the biggest-name opponent coming to Provo this season.

The Cougars have appeared in the NCAA Tournament five of the last eight years but have not been seeded higher than No. 8 over that span. Another NCAA Tournament and another low seed could be in order once again this season.

3. New Mexico (24–9, 11–5); Postseason Prediction: NIT

Talk about a honeymoon period. Even one year later, most Lobo fans would gladly walk through fire to carry coach Steve Alford across a threshold.

Sure, anybody would have been more popular in the Land of Enchantment than the embattled Ritchie McKay, who was fired in 2007 after five seasons on the sideline at New Mexico.

But Lobo-land became downright enchanted with Alford. So much so that the biggest debate this summer was over Alford’s political fund-raising appearances. One candidate put out a flyer — which Alford says came without his permission or knowledge — that supporters could take photos with the coach for $1,000.

Talk about a brouhaha in Burque.

But unlike the rest of the country, Lobo-nation has since united — with the belief that Alford will lead the Lobos back to the NCAA Tournament in his second season.

“That’s the goal,” Alford says. “We’ve made big strides, but we still have a ways to go — on the floor, and with the academic mess we inherited.”

Last year, Alford led the program to the fifth-best turnaround in school history. In 2006-07, UNM was 4–12 in Mountain West Conference play and tied TCU for last place. Last season, the Lobos were third at 11–5 in the MWC and 24–9 overall.

But now comes the tough part. While many of McKay’s players are still around — including MWC Player of the Year candidate Tony Danridge, who missed all of last season with a broken leg, starting center Daniel Faris and the school’s all-time most accurate 3-point shooter in Chad Toppert — Alford will have to find a way to win without first-round NBA Draft pick J.R. Giddens, who started his career at Kansas before starring at UNM and ultimately being drafted by the Boston Celtics. The 6'5" guard made a believer of Alford, who admitted having doubts whether Giddens would ever make it to the start of last season.

“It’s hard to replace a first-round draft pick,” Alford says. “You don’t have that every year. But we have more overall talent. It’s a matter of how quickly the young kids mature.”

Alford signed a stellar fall recruiting class, but had difficulty getting it eligible. Only two signees, Phillip McDonald and Nate Garth, were ready to roll academically by spring. But as of early August, four of the five had been cleared, and Alford says he hopes the fifth, 6'9" Isaiah Rusher, will join the team by the second semester.

Alford also added 6'8" forward A.J. Hardeman, who was academically ineligible after signing with Texas Tech out of high school but was cleared to play in June.

If Alford can harness all that talent, keep it eligible and make it a cohesive unit, who knows? Maybe next year, he will be holding his own fundraisers. Get to the NCAA Tournament, and he could probably run for any office in New Mexico and extend the honeymoon period in Lobo-land for at least one more season.

4. Utah (18–15, 7–9); Postseason Prediction: NIT

Jim Boylen demanded a lot from his Utah players in his first year as a head coach. “I’ve pushed these guys to a place they’ve never been pushed before,” he says.

Yet Boylen prodded them to only one more Mountain West Conference victory than the previous season, so moving up in the league standings is a big priority for his second year with a team that lost only one senior from the playing rotation.

The Utes went 18–15 overall (after two losing seasons) and won one game in the College Basketball Invitational. Most important, however, they improved only slightly (to 7–9) in conference play. Boylen’s biggest impact was on defense, where the Utes went from allowing 50 percent shooting in 2006-07 to 41.7 percent last year. They also led the league with 47.3 percent shooting from the field and 75.8 percent from the free throw line. So how did they lose so many games? Two explanations — too many fouls and end-of-game failures.

Opponents shot 146 more free throws than the Utes, who fouled too often in their effort to play more aggressively. They also botched several late-game situations on offense, with chances to win or at least force overtime. “I’m the first to tell you I’ve made a lot of mistakes,” Boylen says.

More experience for the coach and his players should help the Utes overcome those issues. It is deceiving to say they have all five starters returning, because sixth man Johnnie Bryant was their most consistent player. But they do have senior center Luke Nevill, who averaged 15.2 points and 6.7 rebounds and improved amid Boylen’s high expectations for him.

The big question is who will replace Bryant as a No. 2 scoring option, after he provided 14.2 points as a guard coming off the bench. The obvious candidates are forward Shaun Green and guards Lawrence Borha and Tyler Kepkay, after each averaged just under eight points. Green was more productive offensively before Boylen arrived, but he sacrificed his shooting as a junior while becoming more well-rounded. He could resurface as a scorer this year.

Kepkay lost confidence when he missed shots and made other mistakes that cost the Utes chances to win some games. He lost playing time to Luka Drca at point guard late in the season.

Often-injured forward Kim Tillie will be another intriguing player to watch, as will the five members of Boylen’s initial recruiting class, led by center Jason Washburn.

Boylen is trying to restore the high standards and revive interest in a Utah program that appeared in the 1998 NCAA title game. Part of his strategy is improving the home schedule, bringing Oregon, California, Gonzaga and LSU to the Huntsman Center this season.  He’s also remaking his coaching staff, after two holdovers from Ray Giacoletti’s tenure left the program. His new assistants are Barret Peery, formerly the head coach at the College of Southern Idaho, and Stan Johnson, a Utah native who worked last year at Cal State Northridge.

5. San Diego State (20–13, 9–7)

The Aztecs have the talent to tangle with the best teams in the conference. The question is, do they have the stability? Last season, a gifted team stumbled down the stretch and missed the NCAA Tournament because of chaos.

Forward Kyle Spain, a team captain, missed the final 11 games after being suspended for unspecified reasons, and point guard Richie Williams missed three games after pleading guilty to underage drinking. Spain probably will return to the Aztecs for his senior season, but it’s not a lock. If he returns — and manages to avoid the third suspension of his checkered career — the Aztecs could be special. He’s a tough, physical presence in the lane and boasts the experience and talent to carry this team to an NCAA bid.

Forward Lorrenzo Wade ranks as the conference’s most talented player. He soars, and he expertly scans the court, which explains why he led his team in assists. In this, his final season, he needs to become more aggressive. With NBA scouts watching — and a big NBA paycheck beckoning — he could reach his potential.

Forward Ryan Amoroso made an impact last season after transferring from Marquette but needs to lose weight. He was a strong rebounder, an accurate shooter, but a defensive liability because of his bulk. Sophomore Billy White must become more consistent. He was a powerful force at times but offered superb imitations of the Invisible Man in other games.

6. Air Force (16–14, 8–8)

Andrew Henke is the most highly recruited player in the Falcons’ basketball history, but during his complicated career he’s never been a starter. He’s a so-so defender at best, which hurt his popularity with coaches Jeff Bzdelik (now at Colorado) and Jeff Reynolds. This should be his year. Henke, a senior, ranks as the MWC’s best shooter, and if he controls his emotions and considerable ego, he could lead the Falcons to a surprising season.

Evan Washington is a power guard, a muscular player who can battle inside or drop long jumpers. He’s a superb defender and will serve as Henke’s top sidekick. Anwar Johnson boasts everything except a shooting touch. He can guard any position and often arrives at the rim after dazzling moves. Problem is, he misses shots once he gets there. He has the talent, and the will, to grow into a force this season. Sophomore center Phillip Brown watched nearly all of last season from the bench, but he boasts the muscle and quickness to become an inside force. He could provide defensive intimidation, a trait the Falcons have long lacked.

The Falcons will be young. Reynolds plans to suit up eight varsity freshmen. Guards Jon Atkins and Taylor Stewart will be asked to contribute immediately.

7. Wyoming (12–18, 5–11)

Even in a conference jammed with transfers, the most important 2008 transfer resides in Laramie. Sean Ogirri started as a sophomore on Wichita State’s 2006 Sweet 16 team and averaged 17.5 points in the Shockers’ two NCAA Tournament wins. But the shooting guard grew disenchanted with life in Kansas and decided to move to the wide-open spaces of Wyoming. He’s a superb shooter, a snarling competitor and he will be given every chance to revive the Cowboys.

Senior point guard Brandon Ewing ranks among the most talented players ever to play at Wyoming but needs, in the twilight of his career, to cut down on turnovers and improve his shot selection. Ewing has never quite found a position. He’s tried, with mixed results, to play point guard. Last year, he and the departed Brad Jones both played shooting guard, with disastrous results. For the Cowboys to climb into the MWC’s top half, Ewing must become a true distributor.

Djibril Thiam, a 6'9" transfer from Baylor, needs to contribute immediately. The Cowboys require an inside scoring force to keep defenses from swarming Ewing and Ogirri.

8. Colorado State (7–25, 0–16)

It can’t get any worse. That’s the best news out of Fort Collins, where the Rams bumbled through the MWC without a single win last year.

Guard Marcus Walker scored a bundle of points last season yet seemed only dimly aware he had teammates on the court alongside him. His 1-on-5 act was fun to watch, but the Rams will be hopeless again this season if their scoring star doesn’t embrace generosity.

Point guard Willis Gardner brings imagination and discipline. He must overcome surgery on both his shoulders. Andre McFarland delivers badly needed strength and toughness to the middle and ranks among the MWC’s best 3-point shooters.

The Rams could climb if transfers Andy Ogide and Dan Vandervieren contribute. Ogide, a 6'8", 240-pound power forward from Ole Miss, and Vandervieren, a 6'10" center from Purdue, will have every chance to make an impact. CSU’s frontcourt was not exactly loaded with talent last season.

9. TCU (14–16, 6–10)

The Horned Frogs seem doomed to experience the pain suffered at CSU last season. The team is depleted after the dismissal of coach Neil Dougherty. Only two players return from last year’s squad. This mass exodus leaves plenty of opportunity for new coach Jim Christian’s talented collection of newcomers. Freshmen Kavon Rose from Detroit and Ronnie Moss from Fort Worth will compete for the vacant shooting guard position, and junior college transfers Zvonko Buljan, from Croatia, and Edvinas Ruzgas, from Lithuania, could immediately start in the frontcourt.

The Horned Frogs have the potential to climb … next season.

There is one sure thing to be found amid all this confusion. Kevin Langford is a smooth, consistent force at small forward. Langford must vault from solid player to dominating star for the Horned Frogs to avoid a long, agonizing season in the MWC basement.