2008 Arizona Wildcats Hoops Preview

Lute Olson’s attempt to restore Arizona to national prominence and lead the Wildcats to a 25th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance might require the best coaching job of his Hall of Fame career. Three players expected to be starters chose not to play for the Wildcats in what became an endless summer for the 74-year-old Olson.

Upon return from a season-long hiatus in which he dealt with health and family issues, Olson hired an entirely new coaching staff. He was able to salvage two starters, point guard Nic Wise and forward Chase Budinger, both of whom publicly threatened to join the exodus and leave Arizona. After months of turbulence, Wise and Budinger chose to return, prompting Olson to say that “now we can finally get back to playing Arizona basketball.”

But the Wildcats appear to lack the depth and firepower that were the staples of Olson’s first 24 Arizona seasons. The most revealing transactions: Olson signed two guards in the spring — Californian Kyle Fogg and Texan Garland Judkins — who under normal circumstances wouldn’t get a second look from the Wildcats. 

“We’ll return to up-tempo basketball,” says Olson, who adds that 2007-08 interim head coach Kevin O’Neill’s deliberate style and confrontational attitude “almost ruined everything I built.”

Frontcourt

Jordan Hill projects as one of the Pac-10’s leading inside forces. He’s an active, mobile and versatile junior who shot .620 from the field and averaged 13.2 points. The problem is that Arizona has no one to fill in for the foul-prone Hill, whose 105 personal fouls were 34 more than any other UA player last season.

Freshman Jeff Withey is the projected starter at center. He is about 6'11" and 240 pounds, but is not a polished offensive player and needs more strength. Withey is backed up by redshirt freshman Alex Jacobson, who may require another season of practice-time development.

When recruit Emmanuel Negedu asked out of his letter-of-intent in May — he landed at Tennessee — it left Arizona without much depth. Senior Fendi Onobun is powerfully built but is probably only 6'5" and not a true power forward. Olson says Onobun is “going to be a factor for us,” but in his first three seasons, Onobun scored only 112 points and was idle over the summer with a broken leg.

Sophomore Jamelle Horne, who also threatened to transfer during the Olson-O’Neill drama, returned when he was promised a chance to play small forward. But Horne, an explosive jumper who is not a shooting threat, is more likely to be shuttled to power forward when Hill is in foul trouble.

Backcourt

Budinger elected to return after exploring his NBA Draft chances. He averaged 17.1 points but was criticized by O’Neill for being soft and not playing good defense. Budinger is at times a dominating scorer, with accuracy to 22 feet. He will likely be used at small forward and shooting guard and is a good ball-handler and passer.

With Jerryd Bayless departing for the NBA after one season, Wise is the only guard on the roster with more than 70 minutes as a college player. He is apt to play 35-38 minutes per game and add significantly to his sophomore scoring average of 9.2. He is a solid 3-point shooting threat.

The starting off-guard spot is troublesome. Sophomore Zane Johnson will get the first look; he scored only 14 points in his first college season. Freshman Brendon Lavender joins Fogg and Judkins, none of them notable recruits, in what will likely be backup roles at both guard spots.

Final Analysis

Once McDonald’s All-America point guard Brandon Jennings decided to play in Europe rather than enroll at Arizona, the Wildcats dropped from a team that could contend for the Pac-10 title to one destined to finish anywhere from fourth to sixth.

Budinger and Hill have star power; the Wildcats will go as far as those two can take them.  If either is injured or inconsistent, Arizona’s ability to extend its NCAA Tournament streak to 25 years will be in serious jeopardy. Wise is a useful point guard but is not considered a part of the Point Guard U lineage that includes Gilbert Arenas, Mike Bibby, Jason Terry and Bayless.

To win 20 games, Olson needs Withey to play about 25 minutes per game without being a liability and for two of his bench players, most likely Onobun and Horne, to develop into capable Pac-10 role players.