2008 Conference USA Hoops Preivew

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2. Tulsa (23-11, 12-4); Postseason Prediction: One and done

Under Tubby Smith and Bill Self, Tulsa proved in the 1990s that it could make deep NCAA Tournament runs and maintain relevancy on a national level. But when Doug Wojcik took over in 2005, those halcyon days had become a distant memory, replaced by a program in shambles after years of turmoil and mismanagement.

It hasn’t taken Wojcik long to get Tulsa back on stable ground and into the postseason. A surge of momentum at the end of last season netted Tulsa the inaugural CBI title, and with 7-foot Jerome Jordan and all-league shooting guard Ben Uzoh coming back as juniors, expectations have gone up another notch.

Jordan, a native of Jamaica, was far from a finished product when Wojcik found him at the Florida Air Academy. But with dogged development of his skills and physique — the former rail-thin big man now weighs 240 pounds — Jordan showed signs of becoming a dominant defensive center (143 blocks, 7.9 rpg) who can also score in double figures (10.5 ppg). “The Lopez twins combined last year at Stanford for 139 blocks. And Jerome had 143 himself, so that’s quite a statement,” Wojcik says.

With Jordan commanding so much attention, defenses often can’t recover quickly enough to check Uzoh, who makes it an effective inside-outside combo by shooting 48.8 percent from the field. He averaged 15.6 points last season but more important played a team-high 32.3 minutes, giving Wojcik a trusted scorer for all occasions who is versatile enough to create off the dribble or hit an open 3-pointer.

Though having two of the league’s top 10 players is nice, Tulsa will need to find answers at the point guard and power forward positions to truly contend. Wojcik could put the ball in the hands of a newcomer — juco transfer Adrian Hernandez or freshman Brandon Jackson — or look at sophomore sharpshooter Glenn Andrews at the point.

Tulsa will miss the energy and dependability of Calvin Walls in the frontcourt, but Wojcik feels good about the potential of redshirt freshman Steve Idlet and newcomers Joseph Richard and Bassel Bawji, who could end up platooning at the 4.

Tulsa is solid on the wings with senior Ray Reese coming off a season in which he started 23 games and shot .377 from 3-point range. Junior Bishop Wheatley and sophomore Justin Hurtt, who were both injured during the CBI run, will provide the depth Tulsa lacked at the end of the season.

With Tulsa’s mix of veterans and inexperience at critical positions, Wojcik felt it would be beneficial to take the team to Vancouver in August for exhibition games against Canadian college teams. He hopes it will pay off against a difficult non-conference schedule with games against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, BYU and Oral Roberts, which will prove early on whether Tulsa is NCAA-worthy.

3. UAB (24-10, 11-5); Postseason Prediction: NIT

During his career at Indiana and UAB, Mike Davis has never been shy about fueling the fire of expectations. But after two seasons of just-wait-and-see promises, Davis’ grip on the patience of Blazer fans could prove precarious in Year 3.

In reality, UAB has enough holes in its lineup to raise serious questions about its postseason prospects. Anything less than an NCAA Tournament berth, however, and Davis could face the same intense pressure that eventually led to his departure from Bloomington. Davis’ exuberance for 2008-09 has been justifiably based on the return of sharpshooter Robert Vaden for his senior season. Vaden, who followed Davis from Indiana, was an all-conference first-teamer last season after averaging 21.1 points and leading the league in 3-pointers per game (4.3). After testing the NBA Draft process, Vaden ultimately came back to school in hopes of winning C-USA’s Player of the Year award and improving on UAB’s second-round NIT exit. Given room, Vaden is as pure a shooter as there is in college basketball and shouldn’t be hurt at all by the 3-point line moving back a foot.

There is also great comfort in the return of senior guard Paul Delaney III, who received a medical redshirt after tearing the ACL in his left knee in UAB’s fourth game last season. In 2006-07, Delaney was one of the league’s top defenders and scoring guards (15.5 ppg), earning first-team honors.

With Vaden and a healthy Delaney, UAB could be as good on the wings as any team in the country. But the Blazers’ lack of depth and pronounced weakness in the frontcourt will put a ceiling on how far they can go.

UAB’s best lineup will be decidedly perimeter-oriented and painfully small, with 5'7" sophomore Aaron Johnson running the point. Johnson, a Chicago product, had a surprisingly effective freshman season — he led the team with 138 assists — but often was victimized defensively by bigger players. The Blazers will also rely heavily on guard Channing Toney, a Georgia transfer who averaged 10.5 points after becoming eligible at mid-year.

Even the Blazers’ top big man, 6'8" senior Lawrence Kinnard, prefers to hang outside the 3-point line, where he shot 36.3 percent last season.

So who will give UAB some size down low? With the departures of Walter Sharpe (NBA Draft), Zisis Sarikpoulos (transfer to Ohio State), Reggie Huffman (quit basketball) and Jeremy Mayfield (academics/transfer), UAB will need to get the maximum out of 6'8" junior Howard Crawford, who played just 10.2 minutes per game last season.

For the Blazers, then, it boils down to this: When Vaden and Delaney are hitting outside shots, they’ll have a good chance to beat anyone in the league. On cold shooting nights, however, UAB will have to find a way to get easy baskets without a legitimate post presence. The Blazers’ lack of size will hurt them defensively against C-USA’s top teams, but if they beat everyone else they should find their way to one postseason tournament or another.

4. UTEP (19-14, 8-8)

Much of the country has not been exposed to 6'5" shooting guard Stefon Jackson, since he’s tucked away in El Paso. But with UTEP poised to make some national noise this season and Jackson needing only 284 points to become the school’s all-time leading scorer, coach Tony Barbee expects his electrifying senior to receive more acclaim.

“When you see the recognition he’s gotten in terms of the interest from the NBA, he’s not under their radar,” Barbee says. “But as we continue to win more and win on a higher level, he’ll start to get the attention because there’s no question he’s as talented a player as I’ve been around.”

That’s quite a statement for Barbee, who was around some excellent players as a six-year assistant under John Calipari. The question now is whether Jackson, who ranked seventh nationally last season with a 23.6-point average, has enough help to get UTEP into the NCAA Tournament. Though the Miners enjoy a huge home court advantage at the Don Haskins Center, they’re 2–14 on the road under Barbee in league play. He believes that will change this year with the experience gained by point guard Randy Culpepper, who made 81 threes in his rookie season, and 6'8" forward Tavaris Watts, who got 28 starts under his belt after transferring from junior college.

The biggest difference at UTEP, however, is size. Barbee had to play small ball his first two seasons, but he’ll have more options with the addition of 7-foot, 290-pound Kareem Cooper, who is motivated to rescue his career after work ethic issues forced him to transfer from Memphis. Claude Britten, a 6'11" sophomore, didn’t play much early last season, but his rapid physical development is promising. Cooper and Britten should make the Miners tougher to score on than last season when their field goal defense (43.0 percent) ranked in the league’s bottom third.

5. Southern Miss (19-14, 9-7)

Changing the basketball culture at Southern Miss has been a daily battle for Larry Eustachy, but high expectations have finally arrived in Hattiesburg. After the Golden Eagles posted consecutive winning records for the first time since 1989-90 and ’90-91, Eustachy appears to have his best team at Southern Miss and one that could contend for the postseason.

Those hopes, however, are predicated on the continued development of his experienced nucleus, led by two-time all-league point guard Jeremy Wise. Though Wise is a serious talent who averaged 18.7 points as a sophomore, he wasn’t as efficient as Eustachy expected, shooting only 42.1 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from 3-point range.

Wise should have plenty of help in the backcourt alongside senior Courtney Beasley (10.5 ppg) and talented sophomore R.L. Horton (11.9 ppg), who had no trouble adjusting to the college game last season. Horton, a former high school Player of the Year in Mississippi, shot a team-high 36.8 percent from the arc and has big-time scoring potential.

What Southern Miss has lacked recently is interior scoring, and there are no easy answers in that department. Sai’Quon Stone (8.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg) loves to do the dirty work, but at 6'6" he’s always going up against bigger players. Andre Stephens, an athletic rebounder, could be a difference-maker at 6'8" but hasn’t come into his own offensively. Eustachy had high hopes last season for 7'1" Gustavo Lino, but the Brazilian tore an ACL in an October practice and was forced to redshirt.

6. Marshall (16-14, 8-8)

West Virginia native and former Billy Donovan assistant Donnie Jones not only injected some enthusiasm into the program during his first season as a head coach, but he also loaded up on talented transfers who could boost Marshall into the top half of the league.

Becoming eligible this season are shooting guards Chris Lutz (from Purdue) and Brandon Powell (from Florida) and small forward Octavius Spann (from Georgetown), each of whom should make an immediate impact. Of the three, Marshall fans should be especially excited about Lutz, who led the Big Ten in 2006-07 by making 47.2 percent of his 3-pointers and will boost an offense that ranked 11th among C-USA teams in 3-point percentage last season (31.6).

By themselves, that trio probably wouldn’t be good enough to improve Marshall’s win total. But the good news for Jones is that he already possesses a solid nucleus, led by senior swingman Markel Humphrey. One of the league’s more talented scorers, Humphrey averaged 13.1 points per game despite playing essentially on a broken foot for the last half of the season. Jones is also excited about the development of Tirrell Baines, a powerful 6'6" forward who came out of nowhere to average 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds as a freshman.

With a couple of promising rookies in point guard Damier Pitts and shooting guard Shaquille Johnson — both of whom had high-major offers — Marshall should have enough depth on the perimeter. The most obvious concern is in the post, where Jones will hope either Nigel Spikes or Kore White — both 6'10" freshmen — pans out.

7. Houston (24-10, 11-5)

A couple of excruciating losses down the stretch last season kept the Cougars out of the NCAA Tournament for a 16th consecutive season. That streak will likely continue, as Houston takes a logical step back following the loss of five key players.

Though replacements for reliable scorers like Robert McKiver (23.6 ppg) and Dion Dowell (10.9 ppg) won’t be easy to find, veteran head coach Tom Penders has built competitive teams at Houston primarily with overlooked junior college players and Division I transfers. That will have to be the recipe once again, as guard Kelvin Lewis (10.2 ppg) — a former transfer, via Auburn — is the only regular starter who returns.

For the Cougars to contend this season, they’ll need to get the maximum out of offensive-minded guard Aubrey Coleman, who briefly considered entering the NBA Draft after averaging 23.0 points for Southwest Mississippi Community College. Junior college forward Qa’rraan Calhoun, who began his career at St. John’s (playing 22.0 minutes per game as a freshman), is the type of tall perimeter forward who could excel in Penders’ up-tempo system.

That’s a lot of question marks, however, for a team with so many unproven veterans. Guards Brockeith Pane and Zamal Nixon were strictly role players as freshmen, and 6'11" Seton Hall transfer Marcus Cousin did not contribute as much as expected last season (4.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg). With so many experienced teams at the top of the league, everything will have to fall in place for Houston to grab a postseason bid.

8. Tulane (17-15, 6-10)

Dave Dickerson confirmed his status as one of the nation’s bright young head coaches by leading Tulane to a second consecutive winning season and defeating three SEC teams (Auburn, Alabama and LSU) in the process. But the challenge gets even more difficult now, as Tulane lost over 40 percent of its scoring and rebounding in the offseason, including all-league power forward David Gomez (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg). In response to the evolving roster, Dickerson plans to speed up the Green Wave’s offense and put more responsibility in the hands of point guard Kevin Sims. The crafty Jackson, Miss., native improved off his solid freshman season to average 12.2 points and 3.8 assists as a sophomore. If he works on his shooting percentage (39.0) and continues to mature as a floor leader, Tulane will remain competitive.

How competitive depends on whether guards Johnny Mayhane, Eric Vianney and Kris Richard are capable of expanding previously minor roles. Without Gomez, 6'7" senior Robinson Louisme (9.8 points, 60.2 percent shooting) will have to score more inside. Dickerson is also counting on contributions from 6'7" David Booker, a Charlotte transfer, and 6'9" redshirt freshman Jon Andersen, though both are unproven at this level. The wild card may be senior forward Daniel Puckett, who has struggled with injuries but can be a versatile inside-out scorer if he’s healthy.

9. UCF (16-15, 9-7)

Few programs in the country have out-performed expectations in recent years more consistently than UCF. Despite the significant challenges of their transition from the Atlantic Sun, the Knights have posted finishes of fifth, second and fourth in three C-USA seasons.

The odds now are stacked even higher than usual against UCF, however, as Kirk Speraw enters this season with an alarming lack of experience and only five returning lettermen.

“We’ve had great kids, and people that are very unselfish and very competitive, and that was kind of the personality of our group,” Speraw says. “Now a lot of that personality has graduated, so we’re going to have to hope our new guys and new faces coming in are going to have the same unselfishness.”

Speraw should be able to count on offense from senior shooting guard Jermaine Taylor, who averaged 20.8 points and made 47.2 percent of his field goals in conference games. But Taylor put up those numbers playing in the same backcourt as veteran sharpshooters Mike O’Donnell and Dave Noel, both of whom have graduated. Who will relieve the defensive pressure on Taylor this season? Speraw is optimistic about redshirt freshman guard Chris Baez, who sat out last year due to an ACL injury, and 6'9" forward A.J. Tyler, a Clemson transfer. If no one emerges, however, UCF could tumble to the bottom of the league.

10. SMU (10-20, 4-12)

The roster overhaul in Dallas has been fast and furious, but Matt Doherty may have to wait another year before there’s visible improvement with only one senior and no juniors in the program. SMU’s strength should be a formidable frontcourt, thanks to three natives of Senegal. Bamba Fall, a 7'1" center and the lone veteran, isn’t overly skilled but can block shots with his long arms (2.10 per game). Papa Dia, a 6'9" forward, has double-double potential and averaged 9.7 points as a freshman. Georgia Tech transfer Mouhammad Faye, another 6'9" forward with a massive wingspan, won’t be eligible until second semester but should provide a boost.

The guard situation isn’t as solid. SMU ranked ahead of only Rice in assist/turnover ratio last season, and Doherty will probably hand the offensive reins to freshman Paul McCoy. A one-time signee at Pepperdine, McCoy was released after Vance Walberg’s resignation and became one of the spring’s hottest recruits, getting offers from Kentucky and Virginia. Whether he’s better equipped to handle the point than Ryan Harp and Mike Walker, who were fairly ineffective last season, could be the difference in SMU’s win total going up or down.

11. East Carolina (11-19, 5-11)

After leading the Pirates to a five-win improvement, including notable victories over NC State and George Mason, Mack McCarthy’s interim head coach title was replaced by a five-year contract in March. Stability, however, has remained elusive for East Carolina.
Two key players transferred out of the program during the offseason — second-leading scorer John Fields to UNC Wilmington and leading rebounder Gabe Blair to Wichita State — casting doubt over East Carolina’s immediate prospects for climbing the conference ladder.

With their departures, ECU returns a total of 33.0 points per game, but that might not be such a bad thing in the long run. McCarthy has recruited well, getting Chris Turner, a 6'5" shooting guard from Texas who originally committed to Oregon State. Likewise, the Pirates picked up 6'8" foward Darrius Morrow, who initially signed with South Carolina but was released due to a coaching change.

East Carolina’s youth should be somewhat balanced by a pair of senior guards in leading scorer Sam Hinnant (11.0 ppg), one of the league’s best 3-point shooters (40.2 percent), and James Legan (7.3 ppg)

12. Rice (3-27, 0-16)

Between playing home games in three different arenas and major injuries to its top players, nothing went right last season for Rice. But blaming bad luck wasn’t enough to save Willis Wilson’s job, as Rice essentially looks to push the reset button on its entire program.

The Owls made one of the offseason’s best hires in Ben Braun, who took Cal to the NCAA Tournament five times. Braun should eventually be able to get Rice on the right track, especially with a newly renovated Autry Court to sell recruits. Don’t expect a quick fix, however, as Braun doesn’t inherit much of a roster.

Senior guard Rodney Foster is the top returning scorer (11.2 ppg), but he made just 29.9 percent of his field goals last season. Guard Cory Pflieger, a 38.8 percent career 3-point shooter, returns from an ankle injury that limited him to five games. Rice’s best player will likely be Navy transfer Trey Stanton, a 6'10" center who made the Patriot League’s all-rookie team in 2007.

Rice doesn’t have much depth, however, and Braun will need time to build the talent base back to a competitive level.