ACC: All four league bids could make noise

As expected, North Carolina earned the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament after its 86-81 victory over Clemson on Sunday in the ACC Tournament final.

Also as expected, Duke, Clemson and Miami picked up at-large invitations to the Big Dance.

But somewhat surprising — to folks in ACC country, at least — was the omission of Virginia Tech from the 65-team field. The Hokies beat Miami in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals and pushed the Tar Heels to the limit in the semifinals before falling 68-66 on a jump shot by Tyler Hansbrough with 0.8 seconds remaining.

Those making a case that Virginia Tech should have been included in the NCAA Tournament had some facts on their side. The Hokies went 9-7 in conference play and finished fourth in the nation’s No. 1 RPI conference, and their last two losses came by a combined three points.

But the case against Virginia Tech was more compelling.

Yes, the Hokies were 9-7 in the nation’s top-rated conference, but 9-7 wasn’t strong enough against the ACC schedule they faced. Virginia Tech played just one game apiece during the regular season against the ACC’s other top four teams — North Carolina, Duke, Clemson and Miami — and lost them all.

The Hokies entered the ACC Tournament without an RPI top-50 win to their credit before knocking off Miami 63-49 in the quarterfinals. They departed Charlotte Bobcats Arena on Saturday with a 1-7 mark against the RPI top 50. Plus, they had bad losses to Penn State, Old Dominion and Richmond in their portfolio, in addition to defeats at the hands of NCAA Tournament teams Butler and Gonzaga.

Virginia Tech put together a remarkable season considering its youth, but the team posted just one win against teams in the NCAA Tournament. That’s why the Hokies — deservedly — were left out of the field.

Now, on to March Madness and how the ACC entries might fare in the NCAA Tournament:

North Carolina Tar Heels

Region: East.
Seed: No. 1.
Record: 32-2 (14-2 ACC regular season).
Trend: UNC has won 11 consecutive games, including its second straight ACC Tournament title.

Starters: F Tyler Hansbrough (23.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg, .540 FG), G Wayne Ellington (16.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, .418 3FG), G Ty Lawson (12.4 ppg, 5.3 apg, .513 FG), F Deon Thompson (8.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.4 bpg), F Marcus Ginyard (7.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.1 apg).

Key reserves: F Danny Green (11.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.3 bpg), C Alex Stepheson (4.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg), G Quentin Thomas (3.3 ppg, 3.0 apg).

Strengths: The Tar Heels have an unusual combination of force and finesse, leading the nation in rebound margin (plus-11.4 rebounds per game) while also ranking second nationally in scoring thanks to an aesthetically pleasing transition game. All-American Tyler Hansbrough is a double-double machine for UNC inside, and his teammates take turns joining him in the spotlight. Also noteworthy are UNC’s propensity to win close games and its ability to make free throws, two factors that come in handy during March Madness. The Tar Heels are 9-1 in games decided by eight points or fewer or in overtime this season, and they rank No. 13 nationally in free-throw percentage (.754).

Weaknesses: UNC is the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed for good reason, but the team is not perfect. Point guard Ty Lawson still isn’t all the way back from a sprained left ankle that forced him to miss six games in February, and the Tar Heels are the least effective defensive team among the elite squads in the tournament.

Notable: UNC is 18-0 away from home this season, including a 5-0 record on neutral courts. The Tar Heels, who begin the NCAA Tournament in Raleigh and will play in Charlotte if they advance to the regional semifinals, are 21-1 all time in NCAA Tournament games in the state of North Carolina.

Quotable: “I don’t think it’s an advantage. I really don’t. It’s an advantage if you play well.” — UNC coach Roy Williams on staying inside the state.

First-round opponent: On Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET, UNC will play the winner of Tuesday’s opening-round game between Mount St. Mary’s (18-14) and Coppin State (16-20).

Bracket analysis: The East Regional appears to be the toughest bracket, so the selection committee did the Tar Heels no favors. UNC faces a potentially dangerous second-round game against No. 8 seed Indiana, which has lost two of its last three games but spent time in the top 10 earlier this season. The Tar Heels likely would have to get past either No. 4 seed Washington State or No. 5 seed Notre Dame after that, setting up a regional final against either No. 2 seed Tennessee or No. 3 seed Louisville. The Volunteers finished the season with the No. 1 spot in the RPI, and UNC’s homecourt advantage would be negated somewhat in a matchup against Tennessee because Charlotte isn’t far from Knoxville.

Final destination: San Antonio. Despite all the obstacles, UNC has what it takes to reach the Final Four. And that’s where things could get very interesting. Waiting for the Tar Heels in the national semifinals could be Kansas (UNC coach Roy Williams’ former team) or Georgetown, which rallied from a 10-point deficit with less than 7 minutes remaining in regulation to eliminate UNC in overtime in the Elite Eight last season. The Tar Heels are a good bet to beat either opponent, but they’ll fall short in the national championship game against a UCLA team that can neutralize UNC’s quick tempo and ability to grab offensive rebounds.

Duke Blue Devils

Region: West.
Seed: No. 2.
Record: 27-5 (13-3 ACC regular season).
Trend: Duke has dropped four of its last nine games, including two of its last three, since starting the season 22-1.

Starters: G/F DeMarcus Nelson (15.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, .506 FG), F Kyle Singler (13.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.0 spg), G/F Gerald Henderson (12.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.0 spg), G Greg Paulus (11.3 ppg, 3.3 apg, .433 3FG), C Lance Thomas (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, .511 FG).

Key reserves: G Jon Scheyer (11.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, .400 3FG), G Nolan Smith (6.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.4 apg), F Taylor King (5.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, .387 3FG), C Brian Zoubek (3.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .600 FG).

Strengths: Duke presents myriad matchup problems, often putting five players on the court who can handle the ball, make good decisions and shoot from the perimeter. The Blue Devils create plenty of extra possessions for themselves — they force five more turnovers than they commit per game — and they take advantage of those chances by knocking down open 3-pointers in transition or getting to the free-throw line. Senior swingman DeMarcus Nelson provides leadership and toughness to what otherwise is a young team, and point guard Greg Paulus isn’t afraid to take big shots.

Weaknesses: The Blue Devils lack a true force inside on offense and defense, forcing them to rely on outside shooting to overcome their opponents’ advantages on the interior. This particular Duke team also lacks positive experience in one-and-done situations. The Blue Devils were eliminated in the first round of the ACC and NCAA tournaments last year, and they fell in the ACC semifinals this season. Only two of Duke’s key players, Nelson and Paulus, have played in an NCAA Tournament victory.

Notable: Duke is seeded No. 2 for the seventh time in school history. The Blue Devils have won one national championship (1991) and reached three other Final Fours (1988, 1989, 1994) as a No. 2 seed.

Quotable: “I think we’re playing really good basketball right now. We just need to get some rest and get going in this NCAA Tournament.” — Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski.

First-round opponent: No. 15 seed Belmont (25-8), Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET.

Bracket analysis: Duke might have to beat a couple of batches of Bruins to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2004. The Blue Devils open with the Atlantic Sun champion Belmont Bruins in Washington, D.C., which could be a good omen. Belmont has lost in the first round to a No. 2 seed in each of the last two years, and that team advanced to the Final Four both times (UCLA in 2006, Georgetown in 2007). In the second round, Duke could face a dangerous West Virginia team that now plays good defense in addition to shooting loads of 3-pointers. An athletic Xavier squad that routed ACC foe Virginia 108-70 in January looms in the round of 16. UCLA, home of the most famous Bruins, is the clear favorite in the bracket.

Final destination: Phoenix. The Blue Devils have enough firepower to win their way out of the nation’s capital, but they likely will come up dry in the desert. Xavier has lost to no one but Saint Joseph’s since Jan. 16 and would love nothing more than to avenge a 66-63 loss to Duke in the 2004 Elite Eight. If the Blue Devils get past the Musketeers, UCLA will knock them out in the regional final in a meeting between high school rivals Kyle Singler and Kevin Love.

Clemson Tigers

Region: Midwest.
Seed: No. 5.
Record: 24-9 (10-6 ACC regular season).
Trend: Clemson has won seven of its last 10 games, including its first run to the ACC Tournament final since 1962.

Starters: G K.C. Rivers (14.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .410 3FG), G Cliff Hammonds (11.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.0 apg), C Trevor Booker (11.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, .554 FG), F James Mays (10.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.8 spg), F Sam Perry (3.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Key reserves: G Terrence Oglesby (10.5 ppg, .414 3FG, .831 FT), G Demontez Stitt (8.6 ppg, 3.1 apg, 1.6 rpg), F David Potter (4.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.2 apg), F Raymond Sykes (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, .570 FG).

Strengths: Quite simply, Clemson is one of the most athletic teams in the country. The Tigers have quickness on the perimeter and plenty of length and leaping ability inside, characteristics that make their fullcourt press a difficult obstacle course to navigate. Clemson also allows its opponents to make just 29.9 percent of their 3-point attempts, the best mark in the ACC. Offensively, Clemson is balanced and versatile. The team features playmakers (Cliff Hammonds and Demontez Stitt), accurate outside shooters (K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby) and big guys who can finish in traffic (Trevor Booker and James Mays).

Weaknesses: They’re called free throws, but those shots have proven costly to Clemson in recent years. The Tigers rank No. 312 of 328 Division I teams in free-throw percentage (.624), meaning no lead they have down the stretch is safe. And while Clemson has four seniors in its starting lineup, none of those players knows what it’s like to play in an NCAA Tournament game.

Notable: The Tigers are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998.

Quotable: “I was pleased with the No. 5 seed. We feel like we’ve got a really good basketball team and deserved a high seed based on our body of work for the entire year but also with the way we’ve played down the stretch.” — Clemson coach Oliver Purnell.

First-round opponent: No. 12 seed Villanova (20-12), Friday, 9:50 p.m. ET.

Bracket analysis: Clemson heads to sunny Tampa, Fla., to begin its NCAA journey, and the environment is somewhat familiar. The Tigers played there last year in the ACC Tournament, losing to Florida State 67-66 in an opening-round game that doomed their NCAA Tournament hopes. They have a chance to win in Florida this year against Villanova, the lowest-seeded at-large team in the NCAA Tournament field. A potential second-round matchup against No. 4 seed Vanderbilt would be interesting. The Commodores rank among the nation’s top 25 in 3-point field-goal percentage and assist-turnover ratio, so their offensive strength will be matched against Clemson’s defensive strength.

Final destination: Tampa. The Tigers have lost six games by five points or fewer or in overtime this season, and their poor free-throw shooting leaves them vulnerable to another defeat of that kind against Vanderbilt. While the pick here is for the Commodores to squeak past Clemson, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Tigers won that toss-up game and advanced to the Sweet 16 in Detroit. Top-seeded Kansas should win that regional semifinal — no matter the opponent — on its way to the Final Four.

Miami Hurricanes

Region: South.
Seed: No. 7.
Record: 22-10 (8-8 ACC regular season).
Trend: The Hurricanes have split their last six games, including losses in two of their last three outings, since putting together a four-game winning streak in February.

Starters: G Jack McClinton (17.0 ppg, .426 3FG, .908 FT), G James Dews (10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, .907 FT), F Dwayne Collins (8.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .562 FG, G Lance Hurdle (7.9 ppg, 2.4 apg, 2.1 rpg), C Anthony King (7.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.4 bpg).

Key reserves: G/F Brian Asbury (9.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .386 3FG), C Jimmy Graham (5.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 bpg), F Raymond Hicks (5.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg), G Eddie Rios (3.5 ppg, 2.1 apg).

Strengths: Miami plays a stingy brand of positional defense, led by its core of big bodies on the interior. Anthony King, Dwayne Collins, Jimmy Graham and Raymond Hicks allow Miami to give opposing post players a number of different looks, and the Hurricanes do a good enough job getting out on shooters that they hold opponents under 41 percent from the field (third in the ACC). Offensively, Miami makes 38.4 percent of its 3-point shots (second in the ACC) and features one of the nation’s top shooters in guard Jack McClinton.

Weaknesses: McClinton has come up big time after time for the Hurricanes, but they are too reliant on him for scoring. One bad shooting night for McClinton likely would be enough to knock Miami out of the tournament because the team lacks another go-to player. As good as Miami’s post players are defensively and on the glass, Dwayne Collins is the only member of the group who is a legitimate offensive force.

Notable: Miami, which was picked during the preseason to finish in last place in the ACC, is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002. The Hurricanes went 14-2 in nonconference play this season.

Quotable: “We always thought something special was going to happen. We stayed humble and hungry and went out there and got some wins, and now we’re going to be dancing.” — Miami guard Jack McClinton

First-round opponent: No. 10 seed Saint Mary’s (25-6), Friday, 12:30 p.m. ET.

Bracket analysis: Miami faces a capable but struggling opponent in Saint Mary’s, which enters tournament play in Little Rock, Ark., having lost three of its last five games. The Hurricanes should be able to pull of a win in that contest, but their reward will be a date with No. 2 seed Texas.

Final destination: Little Rock. The Miami-Texas game features an interesting storyline — Miami coach Frank Haith served as an assistant under Texas coach Rick Barnes from 2001-04 — but a victory by the Hurricanes would be one of the biggest stories of the tournament. It likely won’t happen. Haith knows how Barnes thinks, but the Longhorns have a stellar backcourt in D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams that makes them difficult to beat. Texas appears poised to meet Memphis in the regional final in Houston, where the Longhorns can feed off their home crowd and earn another in-state trip to San Antonio for the Final Four.

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