Big Ten: Ready for redemption

As conference tournament action commences this afternoon, several Big Ten teams will have an opportunity to prove they’re better than either their record or the public’s perception suggests they are.

Case in point: fans and ‘experts’ still don’t buy Purdue as a serious contender, even though they twice beat Wisconsin and won 24 games this year.

And who can blame naysayers for giving a thumbs down to Michigan State? The team picked by many to dominate the conference, Michigan State has stumbled all season. Should the Spartans put together a three-game winning streak this weekend, however, that will all change.

There is no greater opportunity for redemption than the present, and there is no conference tournament with as many teams fighting to prove they belong as this one.

Here’s a look at how the Big Ten tournament field shapes up:

No. 1 seed: Wisconsin (26-4, 16-2)

First game: The Michigan/Iowa winner

Why they’ll win it: The Badgers are the conference’s most balanced teams and most experienced in pressure situations. They’re also as well coached as any team in America.

Why they won’t: For whatever reason the frontrunner in this tournament has a history of stumbling, and Wisconsin is a likely candidate for that, perhaps in the second round where they’ll meet the winner of Michigan State/Ohio State – two clubs clawing for their lives.

No. 2 seed: Purdue (24-7, 15-3)

First game: The Penn State/Illinois winner

Why they’ll win it: Well, they’re the only Big Ten club to have defeated the tournament’s top seed, Wisconsin, and they have a lot of spark.

Why they won’t: Youth. The Boilermakers’ inexperience started to show down the stretch, and it could be argued that they’re ripe for a huge March letdown.

No. 3 seed: Indiana (25-6, 14-4)

First game: The Minnesota/Northwestern winner

Why they’ll win it: There is no more talented team in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have the league’s top two players – Eric Gordon and D.J. White – and they have extra incentive to prove they’re still worthy of a good seed in the Big Dance. And, oh yeah, they have a slight advantage over the other programs due to the tournament’s location.

Why they won’t: Drama. Some might suggest that this team put the Kelvin Sampson fiasco behind it already – but that’s not the case. Other teams have switched coaches mid-season and gone on to have success in March, but those teams didn’t lose to Penn State in overtime.

No. 4 seed: Michigan State (24-7, 12-6)

First game: Ohio State

Why they’ll win it: The Spartans have a favorable path to the title game. In fact, Ohio State might present a stiffer test than likely round two opponent, Wisconsin.

Why they won’t: See below under the heading, ‘Most Disappointing Team.’

No. 5 seed: Ohio State (19-12, 10-8)

First game: Michigan State

Why they’ll win it: There wasn’t a hotter Big Ten team down the stretch (outside of top seed Wisconsin, of course). The Buckeyes have one of the league’s most polished players (Jamar Butler) and several ‘no-name’ types able to do some damage in a three-game stretch.

Why they won’t: Of all the teams to play in the first game, the worst possible matchup for Ohio State is Michigan State. The Spartans are the only Big Ten team with as much to gain (and lose), and it’s doubtful Ohio State can duplicate the success it had against Tom Izzo’s club in the season finale.

No. 6 seed: Minnesota (18-12, 8-10)

First game: Northwestern

Why they’ll win it: Tubby Smith knows a thing or two about success in March.

Why they won’t: Has this team delivered once all year?

No. 7 seed: Penn State (15-15, 7-11)

First game: Illinois

Why they’ll win it: Martians might swoop into Conseco Fieldhouse and kidnap the other 10 teams, allowing the Nittany Lions to win by default.

Why they won’t: Penn State used up all of its heroics in the overtime thriller against Indiana.

No. 8 seed: Iowa (13-18, 6-12)

First game: Michigan

Why they’ll win it: Should they beat Michigan (probable) and somehow win a low-scoring affair with Wisconsin in round two, the Hawkeyes have already proven they can beat either of their two possible third round opponents, Ohio State/Michigan State.

Why they won’t: Sounds nice, doesn’t it? Now it’s time to return to reality …

No. 9 seed: Michigan (9-21, 5-13)

First game: Iowa

Why they’ll win it: This is a growing team waiting to explode. During the year it beat Ohio State and Iowa, and kept close to Wisconsin.

Why they won’t: Michigan can be beaten in every facet of the game by just about every team in this conference. After all, it’s the only team to have lost to Northwestern.

No. 10 seed: Illinois (13-18, 5-13)

First game: Penn State

Why they’ll win it: Let’s map out the Illini’s path … first, they’ll beat a Penn State team lacking playmakers. Next, they could upset a young Purdue team looking ahead a round. After that, a bit of revenge against Indiana for stealing away Eric Gordon. Then a Cinderella performance in the final. There you have it.

Why they won’t: Illinois is soft, dealing with injuries, and deflated after a monstrous season. There you have it.

No. 11 seed: Northwestern (8-21, 1-17)

First game: Minnesota

Why they’ll win it: I’ve employed a team of MIT thinkers to come up with a theory for how Northwestern could sneak through the conference tournament. I’m still waiting for a response …

Why they won’t: This team can be fun to watch at times, but it’s rarely ever competitive. While I do believe the Wildcats could pull off magic in round one, this team only has so many tricks in its bag.

Big Ten Tournament Picks

First round
Iowa over Michigan
Illinois over Penn State
Minnesota over Northwestern

Quarterfinals
Wisconsin over Iowa
Michigan State over Ohio State
Purdue over Illinois
Indiana over Minnesota

Semifinals
Michigan State over Wisconsin
Indiana over Purdue

Finals
Indiana over Michigan State

-- 2007-08 Big Ten Awards --

Most Surprising Team: Purdue

The Boilermakers might have been the biggest surprise in the country, let alone the conference. Road losses to Indiana and Ohio State (overtime) stole away some of this team’s thunder, but even so no other conference team can compare. Purdue shocked us all.

Most Disappointing Team: Michigan State

With false optimism I’ve waited ... and waited ... and waited for things to turn around, but alas, it was not to be. Perhaps the Spartans will take command of the Big Ten tournament and make believers out of us all. Wait, there I go again …

Player of the Year: D.J. White, F, Indiana

The word ‘complete’ comes to mind. The conference’s leading rebounder and third-leading scorer, White can hurt teams inside and out, on both ends of the floor. His 19 double-doubles really say it all. A no-brainer for this award.

Freshman of the Year: Eric Gordon, G, Indiana

Believe it or not, this pick wasn’t as easy as it should have been. Purdue’s Robbie Hummel was a difference-maker and Michigan’s Manny Harris was fourth in the conference in scoring – often his team’s only offense. Gordon was simply too good to ignore, even on his ‘off-nights.’ He led the conference in scoring – the only player to average more than 20 points per game – and still has plenty of room for growth.

Most Underrated Player: E’Twaun Moore, G, Purdue

For all that was written about the Boilermakers this season, freshman Robbie Hummel seemed to get the most ink. Yet fellow freshman Moore scored more points, played more minutes, and was comparable in virtually every other category. The reason for Purdue’s success had a lot to do with the contributions of both players, even if Hummel stole a few more headlines.

Coach of the Year: Bo Ryan, Wisconsin

What? Were you expecting Matt Painter of Purdue? He’d make a fine selection, too, but let’s not forget that the Badgers were a team expected to plummet after the departure of superstars Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor. Purdue was a young and talented team not yet expected to compete. Purdue’s success is one part coaching, one part advanced player progression. Wisconsin’s success is almost all to the credit of Ryan, who is college basketball’s master of getting the most out of the least to work with. Who replaced Tucker’s scoring? No one. Who replaced Taylor’s floor leadership? No one (Trevon Hughes is not yet the leader Taylor was, nor may he ever be). Nope, the Badgers have lived off of Ryan’s disciplined style and game-by-game approach.

First-team All-Big Ten

Eric Gordon, G, Indiana
Jamar Butler, G, Ohio State
D.J. White, F, Indiana
Raymar Morgan, F, Michigan State
Brian Butch, F/C, Wisconsin

Second-team All-Big Ten

E’Twaun Moore, G, Purdue
Drew Neitzel, G, Michigan State
Robbie Hummel, G/F, Purdue
Marcus Landry, F, Wisconsin
Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State

Wisconsin-based writer Mike Beacom covers the Big Ten for Athlon

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