March 6th Bracket Breakdown

View the March 6th Bracket

ACC (6)

In: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Notes: Virginia Tech is a tough call. It’s hard to ignore a 9–6 record in the very tough ACC, but it also must be noted that the Hokies have played the kindest possible schedule, with only one game vs. North Carolina, Duke, Clemson and Miami. If the Hokies win at Clemson this week, I’d say they are in no matter what happens in the ACC Tournament. A loss, however, might force them to win at least one game in the tourney. Maryland, despite the horrific loss to Clemson last Sunday, still makes the cut. The Terps could really, really use a win at Virginia this weekend.

America East (1)

In: UMBC

A-10 (2)

In: Xavier, UMass
Worth a mention: Dayton, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s, Temple

Notes: The A-10 looked like a four- or even five-bid league about a month ago, but too many teams just haven’t taken care of business. Saint Joseph’s has lost three straight at home and five of seven overall. The Hawks will have a chance to make a statement vs. Xavier tonight in Philly. Temple is closer than you might think to sneaking in. Fran Dunphy’s club has a 10–5 record in the league and has won three straight. They are 2–3 vs. the top 50 and 6–8 vs. the top 100. If they close out the schedule with a Big Five win at LaSalle and win a game or two in the A-10 tourney, they will have a decent argument. Rhode Island ended a five-game skid with a win at La Salle last weekend, but the Rams have dug too deep of a hole. Of their 21 wins, 18 have come against top 100+ teams. Dayton stopped the bleeding with back-to-back road wins at Fordham and Saint Bonaventure. If the Flyers beat Saint Joe’s Saturday, they will be in the discussion.

A-Sun (1)

In: Belmont

Big 12 (6)

In: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Notes: Baylor and Texas A&M are still in decent shape despite some recent struggles. Baylor has nine losses, but eight are against top 50 RPI teams. The win vs. Notre Dame in November looks pretty good now. The Bears (8–7) could use a win in Lubbock Saturday, but a loss wouldn’t eliminate them. Texas A&M, too, doesn’t have many bad losses. The win vs. Texas will really help the Aggies come Selection Sunday. A win over Kansas Saturday would obviously end any doubt.

Big East (8)

In: Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, UConn, Villanova, West Virginia
Worth a mention: Syracuse

Notes: Syracuse was among the final teams left out this week. The Orange picked up a nice win at Seton Hall last night to improve their Big East mark to 8–9. A win over Marquette at home Saturday would probably be enough to get them in. Their flaws are obvious: only one win vs. a top 50 team and some uncommon struggles at home (five losses). But keep in mind that this team only has one loss vs. a top 100+ team. West Virginia is in solid shape, but a win at St. John’s Saturday would help the Mountaineers’ resume. That would give them an 11–7 mark in a very strong Big East. Villanova was one of the final teams in. The Wildcats have four top 50 wins.

Big Sky (1)

In: Portland State

Big South (1)

In: UNC Asheville

Big Ten (5)

In: Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Worth a mention: Ohio State was the final team in the field this week, but the Buckeyes’ position is tenuous. A win at home vs. Michigan State this weekend is a must.

Big West (1)

In: Cal State Northridge

Colonial (1)

In: VCU

C-USA (1)

In: Memphis
Worth a mention: Houston, UAB

Notes: UAB is appearing on some mock brackets, but I just don’t think the Blazers have a solid resume. They have no top 50 wins, and 18 of their 21 victories have come against top 120+ teams. In addition, they have some bad losses: vs. Georgia Southern, at Marshall, at South Florida, at Wichita State. Houston is 1–5 vs. the top 50 and 1–6 vs. the top 100. The loss at ECU last week really hurt.

Horizon (1)

In: Butler

Ivy (1)

In: Cornell

MAAC (1)

In: Siena

MAC (1)

In: Kent State

Notes: Kent State, with a 2–2 record vs. the top 40 and a 7–3 mark vs. the top 100, is in good shape even if it doesn’t win the MAC tourney. That win at Saint Mary’s was enormous.

MEAC (1)

In: Morgan State

MVC (2)

In: Drake, Illinois State
Worth a mention: Southern Illinois

Notes: Illinois State has played its way into the field over the past two weeks with a Bracket Buster win vs. Wright State, a win at home vs. Creighton and a huge win at Southern Illinois. The Redbirds are 2–4 vs. the top 50 (both vs. SIU) and have seven road wins. Southern Illinois has a solid RPI (49) and a great strength of schedule (11), but there are simply too many losses (13) on its resume.

Mountain West (2)

In: BYU, UNLV
Worth a mention: New Mexico

Notes: New Mexico is close, but I think the Lobos need to at least get to the MWC finals. They are 0–2 vs. the top 25, 1–4 vs. the top 50.

Northeast (1)

In: Robert Morris

OVC (1)

In: Austin Peay

Pac-10 (6)

Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
Worth a mention: Oregon

Notes: I think Arizona State is in pretty good shape. Yes, the Sun Devils (18–10, 8–8) have a losing record vs. top 200 teams, but they have five top 50 wins — Xavier, Stanford, Arizona (twice) and USC. Those are some pretty good wins when you compare them to some other bubble teams. Oregon isn’t dead. The Ducks are 7–9 in the league with a 58 RPI, but they have some good wins — Stanford, at Arizona and at Kansas State. If they sweep the Arizona schools this week, they are back in the discussion.

Patriot (1)

In: American

SEC (5)

In: Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Worth a mention: Florida, Ole Miss

Notes: Kentucky has proven that it is a quality team, even without Patrick Patterson. The Wildcats have 11 SEC wins heading into the finale vs. Florida. I can’t imagine an 11-win SEC team not getting into the field. Florida will be back in play if it can win at Rupp this Sunday. The Gators have lost four of six and six of nine. Ole Miss can play its way back into the discussion with a win at Georgia this weekend. That would give the Rebels a 7–9 record with a top 50 RPI heading into the SEC Tournament. They have six top 50 wins, including a win vs. No. 8 Vanderbilt and No. 20 Clemson (on a neutral court). They also beat fellow bubble team New Mexico. 

Southern (1)

In: Davidson

Southland (1)

Stephen F. Austin

Summit (1)

Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (1)

South Alabama
Worth a mention: Western Kentucky

Notes: South Alabama is in good shape for an at-large bid, especially if the Jags get to the Sun Belt finals and the loss is to Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, likely need to win the SBC tourney; they have no top 100 wins.

SWAC (1)

In: Alabama State

WAC (1)

In: Boise State

WCC (2)

In: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

View the March 6th Bracket