February 28th Bracket Breakdown

ACC (6)

In: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Worth a mention: Virginia Tech

Notes: Maryland is limping down the stretch. The Terps have lost three of four, including a troubling loss at home to Virginia Tech. Tonight’s game at Wake Forest is huge, for both teams. Maryland currently only has one win vs. a top 60 team, but it was a big win — at North Carolina. Also, 12 of the 17 wins have come against teams ranked 100 or lower in the RPI. Wake sneaks in this week on the strength of a 2–3 record vs. top 25 teams, including a victory over No. 5 Duke. Virginia Tech has an 8–6 record in the league, but the Hokies have a kind league schedule (only play UNC and Duke once), and they have no wins over top 65 teams.

America East (1)

In: UMBC

A-10 (3)

In: Saint Joseph’s, UMass, Xavier
Worth a mention: Dayton, Rhode Island

Notes: Dayton has lost two straight, four of five and eight of 11. Yes, injuries have been a factor, but a 5–8 record (as of Thursday) doesn’t warrant a bid. If the Flyers get to 8–8, which is a possibility, they will be back in play. Rhode Island’s free-fall continued last night with a loss at GW. The Rams have lost five in a row. UMass, despite being only one game over .500 in the league, is in pretty good shape. Saint Joe’s plays three of its final four at home, with a home game vs. Xavier highlighting the slate, and they close the regular season at Dayton. Winning three of the final four would make the Hawks breathe easy on Selection Sunday.

Atlantic Sun (1)

In: Belmont

Big 12 (6)

In: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Notes: Baylor has helped itself with wins over Kansas State and at Colorado this past week. The Bears are 7–6 in the league, and they play two of their final three at home. A 2–1 finish would put them in great shape. Oklahoma dipped under .500 (6–7) by losing consecutive games at Texas and Nebraska. With five top 50 wins, the Sooners should be in solid position as long as they get to 8–8. Texas A&M is sliding at the wrong time, with three losses in its last four games. And the closing schedule is brutal, at Oklahoma, at Baylor and vs. Kansas. A 1–2 record would get the Aggies to 8–8, which should be good enough in the year of the weak bubble.

Big East (8)

In: Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, UConn, Villanova, West Virginia
Worth a mention: Seton Hall, Syracuse

Notes: Villanova was one of the final teams in the field this week. The Wildcats are 7–8 in league play with a huge game at Louisville on Sunday, followed by a home game with South Florida and a trip to Providence. The Cats have four top 50 wins and six of the their 10 losses have come against top 50 teams. If they don’t make the field, the loss at home to Rutgers (RPI 205) will be the reason. Syracuse, too, is 7–8, and the Orange could have a tough time getting to .500 with games vs. Pitt and Marquette at home and a trip to Seton Hall. Syracuse has a marquee win vs. Georgetown, but there isn’t much else to get excited about on its resume.

Big Sky (1)

In: Portland State

Big South (1)

Winthrop

Big Ten (4)

In: Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Worth a mention: Ohio State

Notes: Ohio State gets left out for now due to a lack of quality wins (one vs. top 50 teams, No. 49 Syracuse), but the Buckeyes end the regular season with home games against No. 27 Purdue and No. 16 Michigan State. Win those two, and Thad Matta’s club has something to brag about.

Big West (1)

In: Cal State Northridge

Colonial (1)

In: VCU

Conference USA (1)

In: Memphis
Worth a mention: Houston, UAB

Notes: Houston and UAB — both 10–3 in the league — were among the final teams left out. UAB has better wins than Houston (plus a win over Houston), but the Blazers have worse losses than the Cougars. Houston is a very non-descript team. The Cougs have very few good wins (none vs. top 50) but very few bad losses (none vs. 70-plus). A win over Memphis for either team in the C-USA tourney would be good enough to push either team into the field.

Horizon (1)

In: Butler

Ivy (1)

In: Cornell

MAAC (1)

In: Niagara

MAC (1)

In: Kent State

Notes: Kent State’s win at Saint Mary’s in the Bracket Busters was huge. The Golden Flashes have a strong RPI (28) and two solid non-home wins — at SMC and vs. Illinois State. Also, two of their five losses have been at North Carolina and vs. Xavier. They are probably in the field even if they don’t win the MAC Tournament, assuming they don’t implode down the stretch.

MEAC (1)

In: Morgan State

MVC (2)

In: Drake, Southern Illinois
Worth a mention: Illinois State

Notes: I have broken my own rules with the Valley this week. Normally, I don’t project a team to win the conference tournament title that isn’t currently in first place, but I did so with Southern Illinois. The hard-charging Salukis wouldn’t have made the field this week as an at-large, but because no team from the Valley has won both the regular season and the conference tournament title in the same season since 1998, it’s likely two teams from this league will get in. I was having trouble finding a final team in this week — due to the soft bubble — so I went ahead and projected two from the Valley even though Drake is the only team (right now) with a strong enough resume. Illinois State could put itself in play with a win at SIU in the regular-season finale this weekend. That would put the Redbirds at 13–5 in the league, and you figure their RPI would jump into the low 30s. ISU only has one top 50 win (vs. SIU) and only has one road win vs. a top 125 team.

Mountain West (2)

In: BYU, UNLV
Worth a mention: New Mexico

Notes: UNLV is one of the final teams in the field. The Rebels are 1–3 vs. RPI top 50, with a win over conference rival BYU (No. 23). They only have one bad loss, at No. 176 Air Force. A win at New Mexico early next week would be huge for Lon Kruger’s club. New Mexico let a huge opportunity get away with an agonizing one-point overtime loss at home to BYU on Wednesday night. The Lobos have no wins vs. RPI top 60 teams.

Northeast (1)

In: Robert Morris

OVC (1)

In: Austin Peay

Pac-10 (6)

In: Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
Worth a mention: Cal, Oregon

Notes: Cal, with an RPI of 83 and an overall mark of 15–10, has plenty of work to do, but if the Bears somehow close with a 3–1 record that would leave them at 9–9 in the nation’s best conference. The Bears do have a nice win at Washington State, but they are 3–6 vs. Pac-10 teams with a .500 or better record. Don’t give up on Oregon just yet. The Ducks are 6–9, but they finish at Oregon State and at home vs. the Arizona schools. If they win out, they would have four top 50 wins, including two on the road. Arizona State has a high RPI (79) and a horrible non-conference SOS (305), but the Sun Devils should be okay as long as they maintain a .500 mark in the league. They have four top 20 RPI wins.

Patriot (1)

In: American

SEC (5)

In: Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Worth a mention: Florida

Notes: Kentucky sneaks into the field for the first time all season. The Cats’ RPI is up to 60; they have four top 50 wins (all at home), and they have an impressive 10–3 record in the league. A win Sunday at Tennessee would be huge, though it’s not critical. If UK beats South Carolina (on the road) and ends with a home win vs. Florida, that would leave the Cats with an 12–4 record, which would should be good enough to get them in. Florida was one of the final teams out, but the Gators have a chance to help themselves. They close with Mississippi State (RPI 41) at home, Tennessee (RPI 1) at home and at Kentucky (60). Only one of the Gators’ seven losses (LSU at home) has come against an RPI 75-plus team.

Southern (1)

In: Davidson

Southland (1)

In: Stephen F. Austin

Summit (1)

In: Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (1)

In: South Alabama
Worth a mention: Western Kentucky

Notes: Western Kentucky boasts a gaudy 21–6 record, but only one win (vs. No. 96 Nebraska) vs. a top 100 team.

SWAC (1)

In: Alabama State

WAC (1)

In: Boise State

WCC (2)

In: Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga