Bracket Breakdown: Final Four

Projected Starters:
G – Taurean Green (13.3 ppg, 84.5 FT %)
G – Lee Humphrey (10.1 ppg, 45.5 3-pt %)
G/F – Corey Brewer (13.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.9 spg)
F – Al Horford (13.2 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.9 bpg)
C – Joakim Noah (12.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg)

Will win the national title if… the Gators do not get caught up in their place in college basketball history. Florida must play the type of unselfish game that has the Gainesville school in position to join the football team as 2007 national champs and become the first team to win back-to-back NCAA Tournament titles since Duke did so in 1991 and 1992.

Will lose to UCLA on Saturday if… they underestimate how hungry the Bruins are to avenge their embarrassing 73–57 loss to the Gators in last year’s title game. Florida must match the intensity level of UCLA, a team that plays solid defense and is capable of dethroning the reigning champs if UF starts slow like it did against Purdue, Butler and Oregon.

UCLA Bruins
2006-07 Record: 30–5 (15–3 Pac-10)
Head Coach: Ben Howland

Projected Starters:
G – Darren Collison (12.7 ppg, 5.9 apg, 2.3 spg)
G – Arron Afflalo (16.7 ppg, 80.0 FT%)
G – Josh Shipp (13.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 77.5 FT%)
F – Luc Mbah a Moute (8.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg)
C – Lorenzo Mata (6.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 65.3 FG%)

Will win the national title if… the Bruins are able to clamp down on defense and get the Gators’ post players in early foul trouble. The secret to Florida’s success is its inside-outside game. UCLA must frustrate Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green with perimeter defense, and force Al Horford or Joakim Noah to the bench by aggressively attacking the basket on offense.

Will lose to Florida on Saturday if… they are forced to fight fair against a more talented group of Gators. If UCLA has to match up with Horford, Noah, Green, Humphrey and Corey Brewer for an entire game, it might turn into deja vu for the Bruins. If last year’s title game is any indication, Florida knows what it takes to beat UCLA under the bright lights.

Ohio State Buckeyes
2006-07 Record: 34–3 (15–1 Big Ten)
Head Coach: Thad Matta

Projected Starters:
G – Mike Conley Jr. (11.0 ppg, 6.1 apg, 2.2 spg)
G – Jamar Butler (8.6 ppg, 85.5 FT%)
G/F – Ron Lewis (12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 77.8 FT%)
F – Ian Harris (7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg)
C – Greg Oden (15.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.7 bpg, 61.6 FG%)

Will win the national title if… the Buckeyes can keep freshman center Greg Oden on the floor for an entire game. Due to early foul trouble, the 7-foot intimidator was limited to 18 minutes vs. Tennessee and 24 minutes vs. Memphis. Without Oden, OSU is forced to rely on the perimeter shooting of Ron Lewis and Mike Conley Jr., who have been lights out.

Will lose to Georgetown on Saturday if… Lewis cools off or Conley Jr. starts to play like a rookie. The Buckeyes have become overly reliant on Lewis, who has been unstoppable in pressure situations. Meanwhile, Conley Jr. is a 19-year-old who has played like a veteran but would be the first freshman point guard to win it all since Mike Bibby led Arizona in 1997.

Georgetown Hoyas
2006-07 Record: 30–6 (13–3 Big East)
Head Coach: John Thompson III

Projected Starters:
G – Jonathan Wallace (10.9 ppg, 86.8 FT%)
G – Jessie Sapp (8.9 ppg)
F – DaJuan Summers (9.0 ppg)
F – Jeff Green (14.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.2 bpg, 50.6 FG%)
C – Roy Hibbert (12.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 67.3 FG%)

Will win the national title if… the Hoyas can get big games from their star players. Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert are difficult assignments on both ends of the floor. If Green gets going early and Hibbert is able to stay out of foul trouble, the Hoyas will have two go-to guys and plenty of opportunities for role players to make a mark in the Final Four.

Will lose to Ohio State on Saturday if… they are unable to pull off the type of late game magic that allowed Georgetown to escape close calls against Vanderbilt and North Carolina. Execution under pressure will be critical against a battle-tested Ohio State team that has survived almost certain elimination twice already during March Madness.