Big 12 Notes: Bubble teams hard to predict

But after that it’s darn near impossible to predict what other Big 12 teams — if any — will earn a berth to play in this season’s NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State sure aren’t making things any easier for the committee that selects the field of 65. Just when each school enhances its resume by winning a marquee matchup, it turns around and drops a game that forces it back toward the bubble.

Just look at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have dealt Texas A&M their only two conference losses of the season. But they lost five straight after the first win, and Tuesday they suffered at 29-point slaughtering at the hands of Texas. And did we mention that Bob Knight’s squad has also lost to Baylor and Nebraska?

Bad as Texas Tech has been at times, Oklahoma State is struggling even worse. The Cowboys are 19–8 and tout impressive non-conference wins over Syracuse and Pittsburgh. But they’re just 5–7 in league play and have lost five of their last six. Included in that stretch is a 29-point loss to Texas and a 20-point setback against Texas A&M.

Ouch.

Of the Big 12’s three “bubble” teams, Kansas State would seem to have the best chance of earning a berth in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are 19–9 overall and 8–5 in league play. With games against Colorado, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma remaining, Bob Huggins’ squad seems destined to finish fourth in the league standings, which would mean a first-round bye in next month’s league tournament.

According to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, that doesn’t mean squat.

Noting that the Big 12 South is better than the North, Lunardi pointed out that K-State has an easier league schedule than Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. And the Wildcats tout just two wins over marquee opponents (Texas and USC).

“They have a real chance,” Lunardi said of the Wildcats. “But this is an example of where unbalanced schedules need to be evaluated.

“For them, a bye (in the conference tournament) would be irrelevant. If you asked people to rank the Big 12 teams, most of them wouldn’t have K-State in the top four. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and K-State … K-State is third in that group.”

Maybe that’s the case now — but something tells me it won’t be by the end of the Big 12 season.

Rising Team: Kansas
The Jayhawks are playing as well as any team in the country. Before squeaking out a 71–62 victory at K-State Monday, KU had won its previous four games by an average of 31.8 points. That included a 92–39 win over Nebraska, when Bill Self’s squad outscored the Cornhuskers 51–17 in the second half. This team could win it all — if, of course, they find a way to get past the first round.

Falling Team: Kansas State
Just when it appeared they were NCAA-Tournament bound, the Wildcats suffered a terrible loss at Nebraska and then blew a golden opportunity to beat Kansas in Manhattan for the first time in 23 years. Still, frustrated as Bob Huggins may be, his team can still reach the postseason with a strong finish. That certainly seems possible with remaining games against Colorado, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma — all of which are struggling.

Player of the Week: Keon Lawrence, G, Missouri
Lawrence scored 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting to lead the Tigers to a 75–64 victory at Oklahoma State Saturday. Four days later he hit the game-winner in his team’s 72–68 home win over Oklahoma.

Freshman of the Week: Sherron Collins, G, Kansas
Collins hardly let the raucous environment at Bramlage Coliseum affect his performance in Monday’s victory at Kansas State. A guard, Collins scored 10 of his game-high 20 points in the final 11 minutes as the Jayhawks won for the 23rd straight time in Manhattan.

Games of the Week
Saturday, Feb. 24
Texas at Oklahoma
The Sooners’ NCAA Tournament chances are dead, but that won’t stop them from getting up to play the Longhorns.

Monday, Feb. 26
Kansas at Oklahoma
The Jayhawks are 6–1 in Big 12 road games. KU needs to win out to claim at least a share of the Big 12 title.

Tuesday, Feb. 27
Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Could an NCAA Tournament berth be on the line? Cowboys dropped a home game to Missouri last week, so it could certainly happen against the Wildcats, too.

Wednesday, Feb. 28
Texas A&M at Texas
Texas is looking for revenge on its home court. The Jayhawks will be crossing their fingers that they get it.

They Said It
“You would have thought we were the team that had won two Big 12 games and had nothing to play for. We were in a position with five games left to make the NCAA Tournament, but Baylor kicked us in every area.” — Nebraska’s Doc Sadler, after his team’s loss to previously 2–10 Baylor

“They’re a team that’s got a chance to go to the Final Four. They’ve got all the ingredients that good teams have.” — Oklahoma State coach Sean Sutton, on Texas A&M

“I’ve never seen anyone make a jump from non-conference to conference like he has, and I’ve been around college basketball for awhile. Never seen anything like it.” — Oklahoma’s Jeff Capel on guard Nate Carter, who’s gone from averaging 4.4 points in non-conference play to 17.7 points against Big 12 competition

“There are a lot of great point guards in the country that are freshmen. But I don’t know if there are many that are playing at that high of a level.” — Kansas coach Bill Self on Jayhawks freshman Sherron Collins

Big 12 Power Rankings
1.    Kansas (1) – Last two games — against Oklahoma and Texas — won’t be easy
2.    Texas A&M (2) – Eyes of college basketball will be in Texas for Aggies-Longhorns showdown
3.    Texas (3) – Durant not the only freshman phenom in Austin
4.    Kansas State (4) – Strong finish would catapult Wildcats into tournament
5.    Missouri (9) – Victories over Oklahoma and Okie State have Tigers thinking postseason
6.    Texas Tech (6) – No consistency whatsoever
7.    Oklahoma (7) – NCAA Tournament hopes have all but disappeared
8.    Oklahoma State (6) – A mammoth collapse by the Cowboys
9.    Nebraska (9) – 92–39 to Kansas — and then a loss to Baylor. Nice week, guys
10.    Iowa State (10) – Nice comeback against Buffs
11.    Baylor (12) – Out of the cellar
12.    Colorado (11) – Na-na. Na-na-na-nah. Hey-hey-hey … Good-bye.

Upcoming Games and Predictions
Saturday, February 24
Iowa State at Kansas – Jayhawks by 25
Baylor at Texas A&M – Aggies by 12
Texas at Oklahoma – Longhorns by 13
Missouri at Nebraska – Tigers by 1
Kansas State at Colorado – Wildcats by 11
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech – Red Raiders by 3

Monday, February 26
Kansas at Oklahoma – Jayhawks by 10

Tuesday, February 27
Kansas State at Oklahoma State – Cowboys by 1

Wednesday, February 28
Texas A&M at Texas – Longhorns by 3
Colorado at Missouri – Tigers by 13
Iowa State at Nebraska – Cornhuskers by 8
Baylor at Texas Tech – Red Raiders by 6

Last week: 11–1
Overall: 50–20