HEAD COACH: Will Muschamp, 18-8 (2 years) |
OFF. COORDINATOR: Brent Pease |
DEF. COORDINATOR: D.J. Durkin
Will Muschamp’s second team in Gainesville won games through physical play and a grinding style, but its passing game did not put up a vintage Florida performance. The Gators’ 146.3 passing yards per game were their second-lowest for a season since 1979.
Unquestioned as the primary quarterback, Jeff Driskel will need to improve his field vision and ability to read defenses. The junior is mobile, but he needs to do his part to decrease Florida’s sack totals. Driskel could be an improved quarterback, but he may not have the receivers and tight ends to showcase his ability. The Gators are looking at cornerback Loucheiz Purifoy and incoming freshmen, led by Demarcus Robinson, to boost the receiving corps.
At running back, Matt Jones established himself as the top option in the spring, distancing himself from junior Mack Brown and freshman Kelvin Taylor. A physical back at 6'2", 226 pounds, Jones can run through contact and could be an anchor for Florida’s ball control offense. Taylor, the son of Florida legend and NFL running back Fred Taylor, broke Emmitt Smith’s state career rushing record as a junior.
One of the most optimistic developments during the offseason for the Gators’ offense could be the improvement of the line. With Maryland transfer Max Garcia at guard and tackle D.J. Humphries adding weight, the left side of the line could be especially improved. At 280, Humphries is the only projected starter weighing less than 300 pounds.
Is Jeff Driskel one of the SEC's top-five quarterbacks?
Muschamp would prefer to have all his best players on the field at the same time, which presents an interesting dilemma with both Dante Fowler Jr. and Ronald Powell best suited for the “Buck” position, an end/linebacker hybrid. One could end up playing outside linebacker. Dominique Easley, who led the Gators with four sacks last season, can play both defensive end and tackle. If the Gators are thin anywhere up front, it’s at tackle where Sharrif Floyd and Omar Hunter departed.
Linebacker will be the most untested part of the defense, but there’s room for optimism. Sophomore Antonio Morrison moves from outside linebacker to the middle. He’ll be the Gators’ best hitter. Freshman linebacker Daniel McMillian was one of the breakout players of the spring. He has a nose for the ball and could become a starter as a rookie.
Depth is strong at cornerback, enabling Jaylen Watkins and Cody Riggs to play safety. They have a combined 33 career starts, mainly at cornerback. Marcus Roberson is a solid cover corner while Purifoy, who had three forced fumbles and two blocked kicks last season, is the top playmaker. Brian Poole, a special teams contributor as a true freshman, and incoming freshman Vernon Hargreaves III will be tough to ignore even in a crowded backfield.
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Jeff Driskel, QB – The junior became the first quarterback in FBS history to throw four TD passes while passing for fewer than 100 yards when he did so against South Carolina last season.
Loucheiz Purifoy, CB – He’s a returning starter at cornerback, where his nose for the ball prompted Florida coaches to test him at receiver during the spring.
Dominique Easley, DL – His ability to play end or tackle will be an asset for Gators’ line. He led the team with four sacks in 2012.
Antonio Morrison, LB – Big hitter came off the bench to help seal a Florida win over Florida State in Tallahassee last year.
Jaylen Watkins, S – Senior who started 19 games the last two seasons can play corner, safety and nickel.
A ball control offense needs a good punter, and the Gators have that in Kyle Christy. The junior averaged 45.8 yards per kick for a team that finished ninth nationally in net punting. The major question will be at kicker where the Gators will need to find a replacement for Caleb Sturgis, who made 24-of-28 field goals last year. Brad Phillips is the frontrunner for the job.
Florida’s final record looked like a typical season in Gainesville at 11–2 and a Sugar Bowl appearance, but the Gators were a high-wire act for most of the year. What’s most encouraging is that Florida improved in key areas such as physical play and turnover margin (from minus-12 to plus-15).
Expect another tough running game and salty defense, but without an above-average passing attack, the Gators are built for another season of grind-it-out games.
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Recruited as a quarterback, Collinsworth began his Gator career with a bang when he threw a 99-yard touchdown pass in his first career game – which remains tied for the longest touchdown pass in NCAA history. He then switched to wide receiver and posted three consecutive All-SEC seasons – including an All-America campaign in 1980. That year the Gators posted the biggest turnaround in NCAA history, going from 0-10-1 to an 8-4 bowl team. Collinsworth finished with 120 receptions for 1,977 yards and 17 total touchdowns. He was inducted into the Gator Hall of Fame in 1991.
After a stellar freshman season – 873 yards and eight touchdowns – Taylor battled injuries and loaded depth charts for the next two seasons. He played in six games as a sophomore and only seven as a junior, helping the Gators play in back-to-back National Championship games (winning the 1996 title over Florida State). As a senior, and Captain, Taylor rushed for 1,292 yards and 13 touchdowns, earning the team’s MVP award, first-team All-SEC and first-team All-America honors. The school’s fourth-leading rusher of all-time put a stamp on his career in his final game against arch-rival Florida State. In 1997, the Noles were unbeaten and ranked No. 1 in the nation when they faced Gators, who were a 31-point underdogs. The back and forth classic was one of Taylor’s finest moments as he carried the Gators to an upset victory with 162 yards and four touchdowns. Many believe it was the greatest game ever played in the Swamp.
This four-year starter helped lead the Gators to three SEC championships in 1991, 1993 and 1994. After two straight All-SEC seasons, Carter was a consensus All-American as a senior after 11.5 sacks in 1994. He was a Lombardi Award semifinalist and one of five Defensive Player of the Year finalists. His 42.5 career tackles for a loss rank seventh in school history, and his 21.5 career sacks rank him fifth all-time. He started 38 of his last 39 games in college. The Gator Hall of Famer was selected with the sixth overall pick of the 1995 NFL Draft by the St. Louis Rams.
Marshall was a three-time All-SEC selection (1981-83) and a two-time consensus All-American (1982, 1983). He was a two-time finalist for the Lombardi Trophy and was named National Defensive Player of the Year by ABC Sports in 1983. In 2008, Marshall was inducted into the NCAA Football Hall of Fame. He finished his Gator career with 343 tackles, a school-record 58 tackles for a loss and 23 sacks. He is also one of only 10 players in NFL history to register at least 20 sacks and 20 interceptions.
Remarkably, Kearse began his Florida career as a safety – a testament to his raw athletic ability. He redshirted during Florida’s run to the national title game (a loss to Nebraska). But in 1996, Kearse earned his nickname “The Freak” as he helped the Gators return to the National Championship game – this time getting the win over Florida State. After 38 tackles and 6.5 sacks, Kearse earned All-SEC honors in 1997 before entering his senior season. The Freak’s final season in Gainesville saw Kearse lead the team in sacks (7.5) for the second time. He posted 54 tackles, was named All-SEC, the league’s Defensive Player of the Year and a finalist for the Butkus, Bednarik and Lombardi Trophies. Despite leaving early for the NFL, Kearse finished his UF career with 145 tackles, 16.5 sacks and 34.5 tackles for a loss. The Freak was selected with the 16th overall pick in the 1999 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans.
After redshirting, Brown began his UF career as an outside linebacker backing up Jevon Kearse. As a sophomore, Brown earned the starting spot, registering 56 tackles, 7.5 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss en route to All-SEC, Walter Camp All-America and Lombari Award recognition. Brown was a team Captain for the 2000 SEC championship team, recording 50 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 14 tackles for a loss playing at defensive end. As a senior, Brown earned consensus All-America honors after a 45-tackle, 13-sack season. He was named SEC Defensive Player of the Year, was a finalist for the Lombardi Trophy (for the third year in a row) and Nagurski Trophy. He finished his career with 161 tackles, 47 tackles for a loss and a Gator-record 33 sacks.
In his first varsity action as a sophomore, Youngblood made an instant impact along the defensive line at end and tackle as well as handling the kicking duties (including a game-winning 42-yard field goal in his first-ever game). As a junior in 1969, Youngblood led the Gators to a 9-1-1 mark by setting a single-season school record with 14 sacks. As a senior, Youngblood once again led the team in sacks with 10 and was named an All-American. The Outland Trophy finalist claimed SEC Lineman of the Year honors that season as well. Youngblood is regarded by many as one of the most complete defensive ends in NCAA football history. He was inducted into the NCAA Hall of Fame in 1992 and drafted by the Los Angeles Rams with the 20th overall pick in the 1971 NFL Draft.
Few college players have even been as productive or decorated as Wuerffel, who left Florida with the record for career passing yards with 10,875, which was good for fifth all-time (since broken). He set the Florida and SEC single-season passing yards mark with 3,625 (since broken). He also set an SEC record with 114 career touchdown passes – good for second-best in NCAA history. His finished his career with an NCAA-record 163.56 QB-rating and won the most coveted trophy in all of sports in 1996 when he claimed the Heisman Trophy. That year, he also led the Gators to the National Championship. Wuerffel was a two-time All-America selection and won back-to-back Davey O’Brien national QB of the Year Awards. As a two-time first-team Academic All-American, Wuerffel is the only Heisman winner to also claim the Draddy Trophy, which is presented by the NCAA Hall of Fame to the nation’s top scholar-athlete.
The NFL’s all-time leading rusher left Gainesville — after only three seasons — with 58 Florida Gator school records. His 3,928 yards were tops in school history and fifth in SEC history (at the time). In his first career game at Florida, Smith promptly broke the Florida school record for rushing yards in a game with 224 yards on 39 carries against Alabama. A three-time All-America selection, Smith started with National Freshman of the Year honors after 1,341 yards and 13 touchdowns in his first year. After battling a knee injury as a sophomore, he earned consensus All-America honors as a junior after a 1,599-yard, 14-TD campaign in 1989. He broke/set records for single-season rushing, single-game rushing (316 yards against New Mexico), longest rushing play (96 yards against Mississippi State) and career rushing touchdowns (39) among many others. He was named SEC Player of the Year and finished seventh in the Heisman voting. Despite the injury, he led the Gators in rushing three straight seasons. The NCAA Hall of Famer was selected with the 17th overall pick in the 1990 NFL Draft by the Cowboys.
Few players have ever impacted the college football gridiron more than Tim Tebow. His cult following began with his recruitment process and grew during his freshman season, when he played his jump-passing back-up role perfectly and enjoyed being a part of an SEC and National Championship in 2006. In his first season as the starter, Tebow shattered all expectations with 3,286 yards passing, 895 yards rushing and 55 total touchdowns (32 pass, 23 rush). Tebow was a consensus All-American, Davey O’Brien winner and became the first underclassmen to ever win the Heisman Trophy. As a junior, Tebow led the Gators back to the SEC and National Championship, breaking Emmitt Smith’s rushing touchdown record along the way. He finished with 2,747 yards passing, 30 TDs and only four INTs to go with his 673 rushing yards and 12 more rushing trips to paydirt. He was third in the Heisman balloting despite landing more first-place votes than any other finalist. As a senior, the legend led the Gators to an unbeaten regular season before falling just short of a third SEC and BCS national title berth at the hands of the Crimson Tide. Tebow rushed for an SEC record 57 TDs over his career. In 985 passing attempts, he threw only 15 career interceptions. Tebow ended his career with a 176.0 QB rating, 9,286 yards and 88 passing TDs to go with 692 carries for 2,947 yards and 57 TDs on the ground.
The Gators rallied in the final minutes to stun No. 2 Florida State 32-29 and prevent the unbeaten Seminoles from playing for the national title. Doug Johnson hit Jacquez Green for a 63-yard gain that set up Fred Taylor's fourth touchdown with less than two minutes left in front of one of the wildest crowds in the history of The Swamp.
Following a 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss, Tim Tebow gave a speech at his press conference where he promised, among other things, that fans 'will never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season.' Properly inspired, the Gators did not lose for the remainder of the year and defeated Oklahoma in January to win their third national title.
Steve Spurrier kicked a 40-yard field goal with 2:12 remaining to give Florida a 30-27 win over Auburn and raise the Gators' record to 7-0. Spurrier completed 27 of 40 passes for 259 yards that day -- which was one week before the Heisman votes were due. The performance clinched the school's first Heisman Trophy.
The Gators smoked undefeated and top-ranked Ohio State 41-14 in the BCS national championship game, giving Urban Meyer a national title in just his second year in Gainesville. Florida led 34-14 at halftime and held the Buckeyes, led by Heisman winner Troy Smith, to just 82 yards of total offense.
Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel threw for three TDs to Ike Hilliard and ran for another as the Gators whipped rival Florida State 52-20 in the Sugar Bowl. The win avenged a 24-21 loss to FSU in late November and gave the Gators the first national title in school history.
Brady Hoke should have Michigan in the mix for a BCS bowl.
After recording an 11-2 record in Brady Hoke’s first season, Michigan slid to an 8-5 mark in 2012. A challenging schedule certainly hurt the Wolverines’ win total, as they lost to Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Ohio State and South Carolina.
With a lighter slate coming for 2013, Michigan should have a chance to get back into the mix for 10 victories.
Michigan’s most decorated lineman of the post-Schembechler era, Jake Long was one of the nation’s most dominant linemen for two years. In 2006-07, the last two seasons for title-winning coach Lloyd Carr, Long was a two-time consensus All-American, two-time Big Ten lineman of the year and a finalist for the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy (LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey won both in 2007). In 2008, Long was second to none in the NFL draft when he was the first offensive lineman to go No. 1 overall since Orlando Pace in 1997.
Steve Hutchinson is one of two Wolverines to be named first-team All-Big Ten all four seasons (the other was defensive tackle Mark Messner). As a freshman, Hutchinson started for the 1997 national champions. After his rookie season, Hutchinson only became more dominant. He didn’t allow a sack in his final two seasons and was a consensus All-American, Lombardi Award finalist and Big Ten lineman of the year in 2000. Hutchinson was the key blocker for running back Anthony Thomas, who left school as Michigan’s all-time leading rusher.
Edwards ably stepped into the shoes of Anthony Carter and Desmond Howard and topped them, at least as far as the record books are concerned. Edwards left Michigan with school records for career receiving yards (3,541, breaking Carter’s record) and three of the top 10 single-season receiving marks in school history. His school-record 1,330 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2004 earned him the Biletnikoff Award, a trophy that had yet to be established when Howard and Carter played. Edwards also finished his career with a Big Ten record 39 touchdown catches.
Canton, Ohio, was a fitting birthplace for an offensive tackle who landed in both the College Football Hall of Fame and the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He was one of Michigan’s key players early in Bo Schembechler’s tenure in Ann Arbor, earning All-Big Ten honors in Schembechler’s first two seasons of 1969-70. Along with All-American guard Reggie McKenzie, Dierdorf anchored a line that led Michigan to a 17-4 overall record and 12-2 in the Big Ten his final two seasons. A consensus All-American in 1970, Dierdorf led an offense that averaged 30.5 points and 248 rushing yards per game in 1969-70.
Standing apart from Michigan’s history of productive running backs is a tall task, but Hart manages to do so. Hart finished his career as one of four Big Ten backs to rush for 5,000 yards in his career – the other three are Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne, Ohio State’s Archie Griffin and Indiana’s Anthony Thompson. A four-year starter, Hart averaged 117.2 yards per game in his career as one of only two Michigan players to average 100 rushing yards per game. Hart was a two-time finalist for the Doak Walker award, but he had the poor luck of playing at the same time as Arkansas’ Darren McFadden, who twice beat out Hart for the award.
Rick Leach started 48 consecutive games, including three Rose Bowls and an Orange Bowl. Although Michigan lost all four of those bowl games, Leach ended a four-game winless streak against Ohio State with a 22-0 win in Columbus in 1976. A three-time All-Big Ten selection, Leach finished his career as one of Michigan’s most prolific quarterbacks with 4,284 passing yards and 2,176 rushing yards. Leach’s 34 rushing touchdowns were the most in school history for a quarterback until Denard Robinson broke the record with 35 last season. Leach’s mark is still No. 6 on Michigan’s all-time list. Leach also remains fifth in Michigan history in total offense, ahead of Jim Harbaugh, Tom Brady and Brian Griese.
Brown was one of the key players on Michigan’s most dominant defensive teams. Twice during Brown’s tenure, the Wolverines allowed the fewest points in the country. In Brown’s three seasons, only one team scored more than 16 points (Wisconsin with 20 points in 1974). Brown’s defenses shut out more teams (11) than it allowed teams to score in double figures (seven). Brown finished his career with nine passes and four special teams touchdowns (three punt returns, one kickoff return). In 1973-74, Brown became Michigan’s first two-time consensus All-American since 1956. A three-time All-Big Ten selection, Michigan went 30-2-1 with Brown at safety. Alas, the 0-2-1 part was against Ohio State.
Bo Schembechler called Anthony Carter the best player he ever coached. That’s with good reason. Carter was such an impressive wide receiver, he forced Schembechler’s hand in embracing the passing game. Michigan had never passed for 2,000 yards in a season until Carter stepped on campus in 1979. Although Carter was third on the team in receiving as a rookie that year, the best was yet to come. Carter was a two-time consensus All-American in 1981-82 and left school as the league’s first 3,000-yard receiver (3,076 yards). Although Carter is now 10th on the Big Ten’s career receiving list, eight of the nine ahead of him caught at least 210 career passes. Carter caught 161 passes with an average of 19.1 yards per catch.
Howard’s Heisman pose following a punt return for a touchdown against Ohio State is one of college football’s most iconic images, but Howard didn’t stop at the Heisman for postseason hardware. Howard swept major national awards, picking up the Maxwell and Walter Camp awards and UPI and Athlon Sports player of the year. Michigan’s first Heisman winner since Tom Harmon in 1940, Howard earned the award with one of the most lopsided votes in Heisman history. The 5-foot-9, 176-pound receiver also became the first wideout to lead the Big Ten in scoring (90 points in 1991), caught 30 touchdown passes his final two years (19 in 1991, 11 in 1990) and went 13 consecutive games with a touchdown catch. Howard’s 23 touchdowns in 1991 remains a school record.
Woodson remains the last defensive player to win the Heisman trophy, beating out Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning in 1997. Woodson didn’t win the Heisman on his cover skills alone. He won the award thanks to a punt return for a touchdown and an interception against Ohio State in the final game of the regular season. In his Heisman-winning year, Woodson accounted for four touchdowns (two receiving, one rushing, one on a punt return) for Michigan’s only undefeated team since 1973 and only national title since 1948. The Wolverines won the Associated Press national title that season after defeating Washington State 21-16. Woodson intercepted eight passes in 1997 and 18 in his three seasons at Michigan. In addition to the Heisman, Woodson won the Walter Camp, Nagurski, Bednarik and Thorpe awards.
Michigan is tied with huge underdog Indiana, 21-21, with 0:06 remaining, when QB John Wangler connects with freshman wideout Anthony Carter on a crossing pattern at the Hoosier 20. Carter avoids two defenders immediately after the catch, eludes another at the five-yard line and scores to give Michigan a 27-21 victory.
Desmond Howard returns a punt 93 yards for a touchdown in Michigan’s 31-3 rout of visiting Ohio State and strikes the Heisman pose in the end zone. The victory gives U-M the Big Ten title and puts an exclamation point on Howard’s Heisman Trophy-winning season.
Game MVP Butch Woolfolk rushes for 182 yards and scores a TD to lead Michigan to a 23-6 win over Washington, giving Bo Schembechler his first Rose Bowl victory after five unsuccessful tries. The Wolverines do not allow a touchdown for the fifth straight game.
Brian Griese throws three TD passes, and Michigan’s defense holds Washington State’s high-powered offense to its lowest point total of the season in a 21-16 Rose Bowl victory that gives the Wolverines its 11th national title and first since 1948.
Thanks to a pair of Garvie Craw touchdowns and a defense that intercepts six Ohio State passes, Michigan rolls to a 24-12 victory over the top-ranked and heavily favored Buckeyes, winning the Big Ten title and snapping visiting OSU’s 22-game winning streak before the largest crowd ever to see a college football game.
David Smith crunches the numbers for the million-dollar payday.
Matt Kenseth is on an intermediate track roll. (ASP, Inc.)
The NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race isn’t a typical all-star event.
Unlike the stick ‘N’ ball all-star “breaks” that feature lackadaisical effort and are more celebrated for the parties that supplement the fan activities rather than the actual contests, the Sprint Cup Series version of an all-star event pits recent race winners and champions in a race comprised of dash-style formats which has a $1 million carrot dangling on the end of a stick. It’s wild, unpredictable and in no way resembles a normal NASCAR race.
It also doesn’t have much bearing on the following week’s Coca-Cola 600, which, like the All-Star Race, takes place at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
3 in 13 Dating back to 2000, a span of 13 races, the All-Star Race winner has gone on to win the next week’s Coca-Cola 600 just three times.
Though they take place at the same facility, the two races don’t actually coalesce. The 600 not only requires a car capable of thriving on extended green-flag runs, but also a team that has built a setup to survive in both day and night conditions. The All-Star Race simply requires a setup for short runs, making the drivers and teams that excel at such a thing instant favorites.
3.2 Matt Kenseth has the highest average race rank (3.2) among all drivers in speed early in green-flag runs.
Kenseth, who also ranks first in the series in speed on restarts, has been a juggernaut at the drop of the green flag and for the ensuing 25 laps. While the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 team has been stellar on intermediate tracks this season — two of its three wins came at Las Vegas and Kansas — it will be its affinity for immediate speed that separates it from the rest of the field in Saturday night’s event.
6 in 13 In the last 13 All-Star Races, six were won by drivers that had visited victory lane at an intermediate track in one of the prior races that same season.
The fact that Kenseth has captured two 1.5-mile (intermediate) track victories this season provides no guarantees for Saturday. It doesn’t take numbers — just common sense — to understand that this race is its own beast. A stout intermediate program like the one JGR is currently flaunting is always good to have, but the varying formats of the race don’t lend it to easy prognostication. If Kenseth becomes the victor, it will be because of the combination of car strength and short-run ability.
The All-Star Race format should benefit Kyle Busch. (ASP, Inc.)
56.89% With a 56.89 percent pass efficiency, Kyle Busch is the most efficient passer in the Cup Series.
Busch is in a good spot for this race. Not only is his No. 18 team good early in green-flag runs (it ranks second to Kenseth), but he has also been able to pass at will all season. That comes in handy when a driver is aiming for a $1 million winner’s purse. It also makes him a favorite in the bonus purse — a driver that wins all four segments of the event gets an additional $1 million — which will take both explosions out of restarts and, if that fails, adept passing. If there’s a pick to click for this unprecedented purse, it’s Rowdy.
54.55% Busch and his No. 18 team have finished in the top half of fields in six of 11 races, or 54.55 percent of the time.
So Busch is one of my drivers to watch for the All-Star race, but how about the championship? Presently there is a consistency problem, seen in that 54.55 number, which is on par with the likes of Jeff Burton and the No. 31 team and Kurt Busch and the No. 78 team. Aside from mechanical maladies, Busch has the second-worst crash frequency in the series (0.55), keeping them from recording high finishes in five races. That low of a percentage is something that can intervene in the team’s quest for a championship; it is the lowest percentage among drivers currently inside the top 12 in points.
0.64 Marcos Ambrose’s crash frequency of 0.64 is the worst in the series.
This year has been a house of horrors for Ambrose, who is currently sporting a replacement-level Performance in Equal Equipment Rating of 0.659 and sits 23rd in the standings while Aric Almirola, the driver of Richard Petty Motorsports’ sister car, is in Chase contention. It should be noted that Ambrose’s contract with RPM is up at season’s end. This likely isn’t the sort of start to the season for which the free agent-to-be was hoping.
Ambrose, by way of his 2012 victory at Watkins Glen, is entered in this weekend’s All-Star Race. It might be Hail Mary time for the struggling No. 9 team.
$1 million The winner’s share for this event, a cool $1 million, would benefit David Ragan and his Front Row Motorsports team in spectacular fashion.
Sponsorship has been hard to come by for the underdog organization that captured the surprise victory two weekends ago at Talladega. Ragan’s No. 34 team pocketed $3,524,091 in winnings during the 2012 season. It would take some radical setup strategy and a car unlike any they’ve ever had to score the $1 million jackpot, but that sum of money would represent roughly 28 percent of last year’s take. For them to earn that kind of money in one night’s work would be a miraculous achievement and go down as one of the greatest upsets in the sport’s history.
Who are the best young professional athletes in all of sports?
To suggest that any player in any sport after just a few seasons is a lock to make the Hall of Fame is ridiculous. But it is always fun to look at athletes who have had instant success and try to extrapolate long-term potential.