Picking the best Sprint Cup fantasy drivers at Michigan so you don't have to.
To help guide you through the 2013 Fantasy NASCAR season, Athlon Sports contributor Geoffrey Miller will be offering his best predictions for each race. And because Yahoo's Fantasy Auto Racing game is arguably the most popular, he’ll break down the picks according to its NASCAR driver classes — A-List, B-List, C-List. The main picks are designed to make optimal use of Yahoo!’s 9-start maximum rule over the course of the season. The “also consider” section ranks unmentioned drivers strictly by expected result without consideration of start limitations.
It’s round one of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan International Speedway this weekend — and the one year anniversary of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s most recent win. Oh, that’s the only thing everyone is talking about this week? Sorry about that. Jump in, make your picks and, hopefully, make us look like we know what we’re talking about.
A-List (Pick two, start one)
Jimmie Johnson Johnson was so, so good at Pocono Raceway. Without a differing pit strategy from Ryan Newman, there’s a good chance Johnson could have led all but about 10 laps or so thanks to the green flag pit stops. Most worrisome for the field is that Johnson discussed after the race how the car’s demands are really sharpening in to focus for that team. In other words: Johnson and crew chief aren’t trying out new setup theories at this point, they’re improving on what’s already working. There’s a good chance Johnson erases his distinction of never winning at Michigan come Sunday.
Denny Hamlin Hamlin didn’t quite come through at Pocono like expected, and he’s now starting to reach desperation mode if the summer comeback from the four races he missed is going to happen. It was just two years ago that Hamlin drove away from the field to win at Michigan, and remember he was injured in a crash while battling for the lead earlier this year at Auto Club Speedway — Michigan’s sister track in shape and design. Last year, his Michigan race ended in a fire on pit road — knocking his average finish at MIS to 13.6.
Also consider: Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne
B-List (Pick four, start two)
Greg Biffle I didn’t really see a second-place finish coming for Biffle at Pocono last week, and after the race he seemed to be surprised about it, too. Still, Biffle comes to the track where owns three career wins and the series’ best average running position in the last 16 races with a nice boost of confidence. Biffle’s driver rating in the last eight seasons is the best among all drivers at Michigan.
Carl Edwards Edwards may be Biffle’s most ardent challenger for the top Ford driver at Michigan on Sunday. His average finish of 8.2 is best among active drivers and has two wins in 17 starts. Edwards has been remarkably consistent at Michigan, too. He’s finished 100 percent of his starts and has just one finish not on the lead lap. His percentage of laps run inside the top 15 is second-best in the series.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Okay, I’ll fall for the trap. Yes, I think Dale Earnhardt Jr. will fare well Sunday. I’m not positive he can win — but then again, no one expected his dominating performance last year, either. That said, he’s been driving well lately and his team’s communication with the astoundingly-good No. 48 has apparently been improving. Earnhardt had a top 5 at Auto Club earlier this year and owns the fourth-best Michigan average finish among B-listers.
Mark Martin Martin didn’t perform as expected last week at Pocono, but he returns to Michigan after racing really well there last fall before getting caught in that scary crash on pit road. I like using him this weekend because Toyota’s engine situation is still somewhat volatile both with performance and reliability. Yes, Martin drives a Toyota, but the thinking goes that if the Toyota blows up or underperforms, losing a start from Martin in the season’s 15th race isn’t as painful as losing one to Kyle Busch. Head to head, Busch is only on average one spot better than Martin at Michigan in the last 16 races.
Also consider: Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Jamie McMurray, Joey Logano
C-List (Pick two, start one)
David Ragan Going purely on Ragan’s history at Michigan, the No. 34 could make for a decent return on C-List points if he can replicate his results from Fontana earlier this season. He was 24th that day — not great, of course — but better than most in this group. In his career, Ragan has an average finish of 18.2 in 12 Michigan starts.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. With the gamut of races coming (including Infineon and Daytona), starting Stenhouse at Michigan could turn some decent value. He’s never raced there in Sprint Cup, but turned a top-20 finish at Auto Club earlier in the season. At the least, one would think Roush Fenway would have a little extra focus on the track so close to Ford in Detroit and the traditional home of Jack Roush’s racing operations.
Also consider: Trevor Bayne, AJ Allmendinger, Casey Mears, David Reutimann
by Geoffrey Miller
Follow Geoffrey on Twitter: @GeoffreyMiller