2011 Driver Countdown

No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet
Team: Richard Childress Racing
Owner: Richard Childress
Crew Chief: Gil Martin

Years with current team: 11
Under contract through: 2012+
Best points finish: 3rd (2010)

Hometown: Bakersfield, Calif.
Born: December 8, 1975

2011 Spin
The second race of 2011 will mark Kevin Harvick’s 10th anniversary in the seat of the No. 29 at Richard Childress Racing. Harvick was a 25-year-old star in the making in 2001, slated to run the then-Busch Series while learning under the tutelage of men like Dale Earnhardt. The future was unclear for a relative unknown who was never expected to carry the weight of a team on his back.

Harvick was forced into the big leagues in only the season’s second week, though, following the death of Earnhardt, and shocked NASCAR Nation with two victories and a ninth-place points finish.

Now, 10 years later, Harvick retains that role of overachiever, going from the brink of divorce with RCR to championship threat after winning the regular season points title and posting arguably the best all-around season of his career.

The question as 2011 dawns is whether the team he works for still believes in a man whose biting criticism left a lasting impression during the Chase campaign. Ditching his pit crew five races into the postseason, the driver nicknamed “Happy” raised hell over their performance, even going out of his way at Homestead, when asked what he’d do different in the Chase, to proclaim, “I would take the first five (Chase races) back with the pit crew that I had the last five.” That over-the-wall group will stay with Clint Bowyer this year, but everyone has to scratch their heads over Harvick’s often aggressive, Bob Knight-style of putting people in their place through the media and over the team’s radio.

Keep in mind — this driver was shopping Shell/Pennzoil around to other teams, ready to bolt before the sponsor’s April bombshell signing with Penske Racing left him forced to re-sign at RCR. In public, Harvick and Childress say all the right things, although in private their relationship, once deemed irreparable in ’09, remains strained at times. Any hint of a struggle will rip the band-aid off these connections, damage healed only by the joys of on-track success and not personal apology. Crew chief Gil Martin is an expert at handling Harvick’s moody moments, but this team remains a powder keg with a driver unafraid to light the fuse at any time.

On the plus side, Harvick’s passion can be a good thing. The man wants to win so badly you can feel it, and when he channels that passion into driving, he can be unstoppable. With that emotional edge, keeping the consistency found in 2010 will be the No. 29 team’s biggest challenge. Harvick has always been streaky, either a title contender or an also-ran, and he needs to prove he can pick up the pieces of what could have (maybe should have) been his championship season in 2010.

Qualifying continues to be this veteran’s Achilles heel, with two poles in 2010 tempered by 15 starts of 26th or worse. Week in and week out, that’s an awful lot of cars for a driver to pass to get to the front, and it might have made the difference in a Chase competition defined by track position.

The other question mark for the year is sponsorship. When Shell/Pennzoil defected, Childress picked up Budweiser in a multi-year deal, but the long-time NASCAR supporter’s funding is only for 20 races. Jimmy Johns, a longtime sponsor of Harvick’s Nationwide Series cars, will pick up the tab for six additional events, but that leaves 10 with no sponsor on the hood. RCR likely will find the decals to fill the space, but the uncertainty threatens to cause a distraction.

At least this much is known: Childress will not let this team go down in flames. Lest anyone forget its heritage, the small number 3 on the door is an instant reminder of six championships won with Earnhardt. Childress would like nothing more than for this car to return to its former glory. RCR equipment is durable, and Earnhardt-Childress engines have been the gold standard in terms of Cup Series horsepower over the last year.

It’s hard to shake Harvick’s inconsistencies, though, and it’s important to note that he has never put together back-to-back top-5 points finishes. With a volatile personality, 2011 has a feast-or-famine look to it, although even in a worst-case scenario it’s hard to see last year’s regular-season points champion missing the Chase.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Harvick has the style of a champion, or at least a champion back before the Chase was implemented in 2004. “Harvick was always the same, from the start of the season to the finish,” says one prominent observer. “He got the best out of the car and brought it home in one piece.”

Adds a rival crew chief, “You know, I think he’s still trying to find his place in NASCAR. There are times when it almost looks like he sees himself as ‘the enforcer’ of the sport. His style earns the respect of some and the alienation of others. But his numbers and his personality don’t match up. He gets in a lot of scraps, but he always manages to get a decent finish anyway. That’s hard to do.”

Another crew chief says, “Kevin’s one of those guys whose personality and numbers don’t mesh. He seems to get in a lot of scraps, but he’s got that knack to work through them and still get a good finish.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: After some lean years, Harvick has become quite the plate racer.
Pretty Solid Pick: Lots of places, but especially Indy, where he has seven top 10s in 10 starts.
Good Sleeper Pick: His 7.9-place average at Homestead is his best, although he has no wins there.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: He’s got an all-star win, but otherwise it’s been pretty ugly at Charlotte.
Insider Tip: Clicked off top 10s even at tracks where he traditionally underperformed in 2010. A good play most weeks.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 3
Top 5s: 16
Top 10s: 26
Poles: 2
Laps Led: 357
Laps Completed: 10,645
Lead Lap Finishes: 32
Bonus Points: 90
Races Led: 16
Average Start: 21.0
Average Finish: 8.7
After First 26 Races: 3rd
Final Points Standing: 3rd
Driver Rating: 98.0 (4th)
 

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 11 FedEx Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Owner: Joe Gibbs
Crew Chief: Mike Ford

Years with current team: 7
Under contract through: 2011
Best points finish: 2nd (2010)

Hometown: Chesterfield, Va.
Born: November 11, 1980

2011 Spin
Sometimes, stats can be deceiving when assessing a driver’s mental state of mind. After a season when your win total equaled the number you had in the previous five years combined, finishing a career-best second in the standings, how would you remember it? On paper, it seems like a reason to throw a party all the way through that speech at the banquet in Las Vegas.

But for Denny Hamlin, he spent that night looking longingly at the head table, shaking his head while lamenting a championship that slipped away. It’s the type of disappointing second-place Chase result that sticks with you, attributable to poor fuel mileage, nerves and poorly timed trash talk. Following his eighth win of the season at Texas, Hamlin took the point lead with just two races left but saw a decision to pit for gas a week later come back to bite him, dropping from second to a 12th-place finish at Phoenix while Jimmie Johnson wound up fifth without stopping. Then, a dismal qualifying effort put him behind the eight ball from the get-go at Homestead, as a week’s worth of verbal pressure in the media from rivals Johnson and Kevin Harvick eventually took their toll.

“I’ll be honest with you, I was not nervous at any point until about an hour before the race,” he said afterwards. “That’s really when it hit me.”

Ninety minutes later, he was spinning off of Greg Biffle’s No. 16 car, and his Chase bid was sinking in the Florida swamp. He left Homestead without the big trophy but armed with plenty of questions about whether or not this team could mount another run at the title in 2011 after wiping out a season’s worth of smiles in one fell swoop. Despite a comeback driver of the year performance, when he recovered from ACL surgery in late March to establish numbers that set the standard at Joe Gibbs Racing, Hamlin’s development from occasional contender to weekly threat to reach Victory Lane means little if momentum has truly died on the vine.

That’s where the last in a trio of poorly timed missteps threatens Hamlin the most for 2011. Crew chief Mike Ford took some swipes at the Chad Knaus-led No. 48 team after Hamlin’s Texas win, knocking a decision from afar on how Hendrick Motorsports swapped pit crews mid-race. Team members at HMS publicly and privately claimed that the comments led to internal motivation, a waking-the-sleeping-giant moment that helped beat back the challenge of the No. 11 for good. Combine that with some ugly quotes from the driver after Phoenix — “I can save fuel pretty well, I did my job” — and his relationship with Ford could become an intriguing subplot this spring. The men aren’t friends off the track, lacking the type of deep bond that typically keeps the Johnson/Knaus type of relationship rolling through thick and thin, and Hamlin knows how much those poor decisions killed their title effort.

Another reason that a repeat run is unlikely is the emotional toll the Chase took on Hamlin himself. Still young, entering only his sixth full-time series of Cup competition, he may not have the experience and maturity to bounce back after such a cruel letdown. Long known for being a driver who thinks with his heart, Hamlin had learned to use his head until the fuel mileage folly seemed to throw his confidence for a loop.

“I have to leave Phoenix in Phoenix,” Hamlin said then, although he later admitted he had not. “That’s the thing is you can’t let this … I couldn’t control it. Things didn’t work out for me. I felt like we’ve been the best car over this Chase, and we might not win it.”

That they didn’t says a lot about the 30-year-old’s psyche, a second-place hangover likely to continue, a la Carl Edwards, who had a similar season (nine wins, runner-up points finish in ’08) turn into a winless disaster in ’09. And notice that Hamlin says things “didn’t work out for me.” Not the team, but “me.” Winning in the Sprint Cup Series takes a team effort. No driver, no matter how talented, can do it alone. That’s why 2011 is setting up as a likely down year for the No. 11 team, one in which they’ll need to mature and grow together again before making another serious title run.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

How did Hamlin fall short in the 2010 Chase? “I think (crew chief) Mike Ford did exactly what Chad Knaus did in 2005, the year before Jimmie Johnson’s streak started,” says one rival crew chief. “They were putting their best stuff back and saving it for the Chase all the way back to the spring. I think Ford studied Knaus and tried to peak for the Chase just like Johnson does every year. Hamlin just couldn’t execute the plan as well as Johnson, that’s all.”

Another crew chief adds, “That’s OK, though. They’ll be better prepared the next time around. Hamlin’s just coming into his own. He’s going to get better. Johnson probably isn’t. How could he?”

“I don’t know whether or not Hamlin won over everybody else, but he certainly proved himself to me,” says a team owner. “He showed a lot of guts driving while he was hurt, recovering from knee surgery, and the fact that he didn’t quite win the championship? As far as I’m concerned, he just lost a coin flip. It could’ve gone either way.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: Martinsville and Pocono. Book ’em.
Pretty Solid Pick: The Virginia Ham-lin always steps it up at home in Richmond.
Good Sleeper Pick: Hard to consider Hamlin a sleeper anywhere these days.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Has not been a huge threat on the plate tracks, but you know how that can change when the right guy sticks to your bumper.
Insider Tip: He’s recorded a top-5 finish at every track on the circuit in his short career. That should tell you something.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 8
Top 5s: 14
Top 10s: 18
Poles: 2
Laps Led: 1,184
Laps Completed: 10,530
Lead Lap Finishes: 29
Bonus Points: 125
Races Led: 20
Average Start: 17.2
Average Finish: 12.9
After First 26 Races: 1st
Final Points Standing: 2nd
Driver Rating: 96.2 (5th)
 

Jamie McMurray by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 1 Bass Pro Shops/McDonald’s Chevrolet
Team: Earnhardt Ganassi Racing
Owner: Chip Ganassi/Teresa Earnhardt
Crew Chief: Kevin “Bono” Manion

Years with current team: 2
Under contract through: 2012+
Best points finish: 11th (2004)

Hometown: Joplin, Mo.
Born: June 3, 1976

2011 Spin
During his last two years at Roush Fenway Racing, Jamie McMurray was labeled little more than a lame duck, his career swimming straight into a lake of near irrelevance. However, in his first year back with Chip Ganassi, the Missouri native flourished, claiming victories in two of NASCAR’s biggest races: the season-opening Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400.

The owner’s gamble to re-hire McMurray and give him a second chance after the duo had parted ways following the 2005 season paid off with a year that landed both men in the history books. Ganassi became the lone team owner to win those races and the Indianapolis 500 in the same year (and later the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona), while McMurray is only the third driver to earn the two biggest NASCAR trophies. And, somewhat overlooked but notable nonetheless, McMurray chipped in runner-up showings at Talladega, in the Southern 500, the Coca-Cola 600 and a third in the Bristol Night Race, proving he and the team were able to step up on the sport’s biggest stages.

“If you were to ask me at the beginning of the season: ‘You could make the Chase or you could win these two races,’ I would have chosen these two,” McMurray said last August, a telling indictment on his lack of consistency. Each victory — including a third triumph at Charlotte in the fall — was followed up with a run outside the top 10, a troubling roller coaster defining a points season that ended with his No. 1 ride outside of the Chase in 14th.

Perhaps it was that sort of up and down result that had rumors swirling that Ganassi was considering a switch from Chevy to Ford. Clearly, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing isn’t at the top of the GM food chain; that distinction belongs to teams like Hendrick, Stewart-Haas and Richard Childress Racing. But speculation was put to bed by the end of last season when the announcement was made that ECR was staying with the bowtie boys, an IndyCar partnership in 2012 helping sweeten the deal in order to keep this program in the fold.

Now, the key is to minimize bad days, with McMurray hoping to build on an 18-race streak without a DNF as a sign the organization is over some mechanical and handling miscalculations week-to-week. By Daytona, this team will have achieved much-needed, long-term stability elsewhere. McMurray, as well as sponsors Bass Pro Shops, McDonald’s and others, shored up deals that will keep them with EGR long term. Crew chief Kevin “Bono” Manion will be back on the pit box calling the shots, the second half of an extrovert/introvert duo that has the most surprising chemistry on and off the track of any driver/crew chief set. That familiarity will only pay dividends, especially now that McMurray is no longer having to wait for the other shoe to drop like he did at Roush Fenway. The only worry is to keep the adrenaline up this spring; it’s always tricky to avoid a short-term letdown when everyone goes from a possible pink slip to long-term job security.

The decision to stay with Chevy may or may not pan out. EGR may be a bigger fish in the IndyCar pond but remains a relatively small fish in the stock car ranks as a two-car team. There is also the at-times tumultuous relationship with teammate Juan Pablo Montoya, who certainly didn’t have the type of season he was looking forward to after making the Chase the year before. The former top-level Formula One driver struggled to work together with his overachieving teammate at times last season, but over the long run, they have to find a way to make an awkward marriage work.

So expect McMurray and Co. to be good for another win or two this year, but the trendy pick to make the Chase remains a tricky proposition. There are too many multi-car machines double the size — Gibbs, Hendrick and Childress to name a few — with drivers willing to share information and success all the way into the 10-race playoff.

However, considering the big, flashy wins this team thrives on, will another couple of clutch performances in Victory Lane leave them thinking 2011 was a bad year?
Probably not.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

McMurray clearly has paid his dues and won the respect of most in the garage area. “What a fantastic season,” says one rival crew chief. “McMurray won all the big races. Yeah, sure, he lacks consistency, but that’s still a new program. Jamie went over there and made a huge improvement in that car.”

Another crew chief says, “If you’re not going to make the Chase, that’s certainly the way to do it. He’s earning the big paychecks in the Daytona 500 and Brickyard.”

A third crew chief says, “I think hard times were good for Jamie. When he went through the lean years, I think he learned to appreciate how important it was to be good to those around you. Ever notice how happy his former teammates at Roush (Fenway) are when he wins? That says a lot for him.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: He’s becoming a pied piper of sorts at Daytona and Talladega.
Pretty Solid Pick: Hard to ignore last season’s first- and second-place runs at Charlotte.
Good Sleeper Pick: Third in last year’s Bristol Night Race?! Who saw that coming?
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Atlanta, Pocono and Richmond — totally different tracks that share the same anti-McMurray trait.
Insider Tip: Last year was great, but don’t expect another three-win gem out of this bunch — although another plate win is certainly a possibility.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 3
Top 5s: 9
Top 10s: 12
Poles: 4
Laps Led: 346
Laps Completed: 10,603
Lead Lap Finishes: 24
Bonus Points: 75
Races Led: 15
Average Start: 13.4
Average Finish: 16.4
After First 26 Races: 14th
Final Points Standing: 14th
Driver Rating: 86.5 (13th)
 

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Owner: Rick Hendrick
Crew Chief: Steve Letarte

Years with current team: 4
Under contract through: 2012
Best points finish: 3rd (2003)

Hometown: Kannapolis, N.C.
Born: October 10, 1974

2011 Spin
Something has to give. NASCAR’s perpetual Most Popular Driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr., has endured three years of mediocrity with the sport’s best team, putting his future in question. With finishes of 25th and 21st in points over the last two seasons, the glory of 18 career victories has faded as some question whether The Intimidator’s son even has the talent to run inside the top 10.

Earnhardt is something of an enigma at Hendrick Motorsports, his tenure defined by flashes of brilliance while looking like he’s in over his head far too often. But he’s not simply the spoiled son of a legend as some now believe. Mediocre drivers don’t achieve top-5 points finishes (three), Daytona 500 victories (one), and over 1,000 laps led in three straight seasons. Earnhardt was once one of the best restrictor plate drivers in the business, putting on clinics on how to drive at Daytona and Talladega, and the stats show success on just about every type of track NASCAR has to offer, sans road courses. Clearly, the talent is there; the driver is just no longer connecting to it.

After an ugly ending to 2010, when Earnhardt’s confidence once again dipped considerably, team owner Rick Hendrick knew more major changes were needed. So out went crew chief Lance McGrew, part of a swap among three teams that saw Earnhardt land with Steve Letarte. Calling Letarte his “people person,” Hendrick thinks the duo’s laid-back personas could prove the perfect fit.

“Letarte and Junior have a relationship. I’m not sure if it’s from online racing or fantasy football,” Hendrick joked last fall before turning serious. “Junior has lot of respect for Steve, and Steve has a lot of insight on Junior because he’s mentioned it to me a couple of times in debriefs. I feel like Dale needs a guy he can communicate with, who has a proven track record and a really great team. (Letarte) knows how to get close to people.”

Getting close to Junior is the ultimate challenge. He can be difficult to communicate with even in the best of times, with the last three years defined by requests for changes that made his car worse. Frustration doesn’t sit well with Earnhardt; once there’s agitation, things can spiral rapidly downhill. Earnhardt needs a delicate balance of cheerleader and taskmaster, one Hendrick hopes he’s found in Letarte, who called the shots for Jeff Gordon in 2010. Gordon and Letarte had an ugly year, defined by poor pit calls that cost them wins. And with former crew chief Tony Eury Jr. and Letarte holding similar personalities, is buddy/buddy really the answer for a driver who’s only excelled with a disciplinarian like father figure Tony Eury Sr. on top of the pit box?

The Letarte partnership means Earnhardt moves up the hill at the Hendrick complex this year, taking over what was Gordon’s team and chassis. He and Letarte will be paired with champion teammate Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. The two teams collaborate heavily, and Earnhardt’s driving style is more similar to Johnson’s than former shopmate Mark Martin’s. If the teams can work closely, Earnhardt will benefit from their vast knowledge, a truly enviable position when coupled with the quality of Hendrick chassis and engines.

Despite his woes in 2010, Earnhardt finished all 36 events, the best among the Hendrick stable and a reminder that he still takes care of equipment. Plenty of support remains from sponsors AMP Energy Drink and the National Guard, as well as his huge fan base.

The difficult part will be to sort these changes out quickly. There was little rhyme or reason to Earnhardt’s 2010 season. The only places where he showed real consistency were Daytona and Loudon, two vastly different tracks. The logical place to start will be the intermediate program, but short tracks, road courses and even restrictor plate strategy must be addressed.

The question at Hendrick is how many people still genuinely believe in Earnhardt, whose contract runs through 2012. Clearly, the owner feels he’s now given the driver everything needed to make it work. It’s now a matter of whether Earnhardt’s style is simply a round peg that will never fit inside an organization of Hendrick squares.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

The term that best describes Dale Jr. is “stressed out.” “He’s got the world’s biggest monkey on his back,” says a rival crew chief. “(New crew chief) Steve Letarte may help him shed that monkey. Stevie’s good at building confidence, and he may be exactly what Junior needs.”

Another crew chief says, “OK, it’s established that he’s got the ability to win races, so why can’t he do it anymore? The losses have piled up on him. He’s got to find his self-confidence.”

Another says, “I’m not so sure about that. If he’s choking under pressure, then he’s fooling me. I just think you’ve got have the right combination, and he hasn’t really had it since ‘Pops” (Tony Eury Sr.) worked with him. He’s got to find another combination that really works, and half the guys in this sport are in the same boat. It’s nothing like as simple as people on the outside think.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: Despite all the plate talk, Richmond is statistically a better play.
Pretty Solid Pick: OK, the plate tracks: Some of the magic is gone, but the ability is still there.
Good Sleeper Pick: He may not win Bristol, but he can still click off top 10s.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Homestead and Infineon are the only tracks where he’s failed to score a top 10.
Insider Tip: The CoT has really thrown Junior for a loop. We’ll see if Steve Letarte’s presence makes a difference.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 3
Top 10s: 8
Poles: 1
Laps Led: 185
Laps Completed: 10,710
Lead Lap Finishes: 24
Bonus Points: 40
Races Led: 7
Average Start: 19.0
Average Finish: 18.6
After First 26 Races: 19th
Final Points Standing: 21st
Driver Rating: 75.7 (22nd)
 

Mark Martin by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Owner: Rick Hendrick
Crew Chief: Lance McGrew

Years with current team: 3
Under contract through: 2011
Best points finish: 2nd (1990, ’94, ’98, ’02, ’09)

Hometown: Batesville, Ark.
Born: January 9, 1959


2011 Spin
Is the best driver in NASCAR without a title simply a lame duck in 2011? Mark Martin enters his third and final year at Hendrick Motorsports knowing the No. 5 Chevy will be passed to Kasey Kahne in 2012, and historically, that hasn’t been a good omen for drivers. But Martin has been here before — two past retirement announcements (2005-06) never fazed his Roush Racing team, despite knowing the end was near. Now, with what appears to be his last full-time effort finally at hand, Martin enters 2011 just as hungry as he was when he first strapped into a Cup car a full 30 years ago.

Car owner Rick Hendrick says that his commitment to Martin remains unchanged, asserting in a November press conference that the 52 year-old driver would get the same commitment Hendrick has towards the other three teams in his stable. “He’s not getting the short end of the stick,” the owner assured. “He’s going to get all the stick he wants.”

But is that verbal assessment accurate? After ending the season with momentum, reestablishing a special chemistry with head wrench Alan Gustafson that led to five wins and a runner-up points finish in 2009, Martin will start anew in 2011 after Hendrick made sweeping driver/crew chief changes to three of his four cars. Moving over to the former No. 88 stable, Martin gets crew chief Lance McGrew, who has just one Cup Series victory to his credit. In addition, the “new” No. 5 chassis he inherits scored just two top-10 finishes in the last 18 races of 2010, a far cry from the gains the “old” No. 5 team made in scoring two top 10s in its last three races alone.

To be fair, Martin gets reunited with some familiar faces from that ’09 campaign, crew members taken in an effort to kickstart Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s listless tenure at HMS. Most notable is engineer Chris Heroy, reassembling a perfect pairing of technical excellence with the most knowledgeable chassis driver in the sport. And he’ll have a new shopmate in four-time champion Jeff Gordon, who moves into the new “5/24” building on the Hendrick campus. Both veterans, the two should work well together and be able to share information successfully. Durability is also strong, as Hendrick engines caused zero mechanical DNFs for Martin in 2010.

Hendrick’s 10 championships do count for something, allowing a driver with an AARP card to gain funding in a business dominated by young guns. Martin will have sponsorship from CarQuest, Delphi and GoDaddy.com once again along with Quaker State. However, this car’s financial backing remains the worst of the four HMS entries, causing a troublesome hierarchy.

Martin’s best asset as a driver is his ability to win races while driving cleanly — so cleanly, in fact, he was criticized earlier in his career for not being aggressive enough. When push comes to shove, Martin usually doesn’t shove, a philosophy that eliminates controversy. But while that has earned him the respect of the garage, it also causes him to be run over from time to time.

Martin’s success became one-dimensional in 2010, as his best finishes came on flatter tracks like Martinsville, Loudon, Fontana and Phoenix. He’ll need to step up performance on the faster-banked ovals, remastering intermediates while navigating tricky restrictor plate waters.

Another thing to keep in mind: Hendrick has showered the veteran with distractions from the second his “full-time retirement” firmed up. After he signed Kahne in April 2010, his quest to find Kahne a ride led to a three-month inquisition as to whether Martin would step out of Hendrick a year early. Who knows what other bombshells may drop as that team prepares for 2012?

This year is likely Martin’s last, best shot to shed that title of best driver without a championship, but he’ll need all the pieces to come together early and often to make that happen. Otherwise, expect Hendrick to get Kahne on the brain all too quickly through a circus that ends with Martin a retirement sideshow.


What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Few drivers command more respect than the grand old veteran. “He’s probably the greatest driver never to have won a championship,” says an admirer in the garage. “I don’t know if the shakeup at Hendrick is going to help Mark. Lance McGrew is a sharp guy, but it will depend on the chemistry.”

A crew chief says, “Mark may have more concern for his team than anybody in the sport. He’s one of those guys who knows how to save his equipment. I think that’s a talent most of the younger drivers are never going to have to learn.”

Another says, “No one is more determined. Mark’s that rare driver who races hard every lap but not in a way that ticks everybody else off. Everybody knows where they stand with him.”


Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: Dude loves Dover.
Pretty Solid Pick: Phoenix has been his best track, statistically, since the advent of the CoT.
Good Sleeper Pick: No wins at Pocono, but he’s a virtual lock for a top 10 twice a year.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Hasn’t won in 51 starts at Daytona. Actually, he did in 2007, but NASCAR (for once) didn’t throw the rag.
Insider Tip: His unequaled chassis knowledge paired with his old engineer, should pay off on the big intermediates this year.


2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 7
Top 10s: 11
Poles: 1
Laps Led: 148
Laps Completed: 10,646
Lead Lap Finishes: 24
Bonus Points: 65
Races Led: 12
Average Start: 14.9
Average Finish: 15.3
After First 26 Races: 15th
Final Points Standing: 13th
Driver Rating: 82.8 (16th)
 

Jeff Burton by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet
Team: Richard Childress Racing
Owner: Richard Childress
Crew Chief: Todd Berrier

Years with current team: 8
Under contract through: 2011
Best points finish: 3rd (2000)

Hometown: South Boston, Va.
Born: June 29, 1967


2011 Spin
If 2010 was a season of “almosts” for Jeff Burton, will 2011 be “now or never”? For Burton, time is running short for a championship, and he has a lot of teams to climb over to get there. The 43-year-old is in the final year of his contract with Richard Childress Racing, a make-or-break season in a sport where 40-somethings find the unemployment line in record numbers.

Most frustrating for the garage’s unofficial driver spokesman is a troubling inability to find Victory Lane, an ugly zero during a season when RCR put all three of its cars in the Chase. Burton’s 539 laps led were the highest total for him in four years, but an inability to close the deal headlines a 77-race winless drought, a number that needs to change for him to be considered a serious contender. There was the flat tire at Martinsville in March, running over the air hose at Darlington in May and bad pit calls at Loudon not once, but twice. All these incidents went against Burton’s longtime career philosophy of putting himself in position for victories. Instead, self-inflicted wounds bulldozed the Caterpillar Chevrolet.

“We have to have better pit stops,” he said unequivocally in November. “I have to do a better job at making decisions on the race track. Todd (crew chief Berrier) has got to do a better job at making decisions on the pit box. I really think that we can go fast enough to win the championship next year, but ...”

A trail of “what ifs” haunts a man who once seemed primed and ready to assume the role now filled by Jimmie Johnson. Still, the leader of the RCR organization will once again enjoy a prime opportunity for success. He’ll carry Caterpillar, a longtime NASCAR sponsor whose contract is also up after 2011, on the sides once again. Berrier, in his second season with the No. 31, along with the core crew of mechanics and engineers will also return. If Berrier has a fault, it’s the tendency to tune out a driver’s wishes, but that hasn’t been as big of an issue with the veteran Burton.

The duo also has an organization behind them that knows how to win. Childress backed six championship teams with Dale Earnhardt and has 94 victories over 37 years in the sport as an owner. He remains as committed as ever, and his teams retain the best horsepower in the business with Earnhardt-Childress Racing engines.

Such stability combined with a veteran’s experience usually pays off on-track, where Burton is often given the benefit of the doubt in situations that would have the competition hot under the collar. A Mark Martin-like driver, he’s earned that label from a career of knowing when to use a bumper and when to back off, both literally and figuratively, in his dealings with NASCAR and the competition. In the end, that means consistency, perhaps his greatest asset: Burton has registered four DNFs or fewer in all but two of his last 15 seasons in Sprint Cup. Still “old school,” he drives in a conservative yet effective way that, until five years ago, still worked.

In 2011, though, Burton will need more than a methodical approach to take that final step. With parity among top teams at an all-time high, he’s up against 20 others that can run off a string of victories. No Chase champion has taken the title with fewer than three, a number Burton has never posted during his seven previous years with RCR. It seems a change of philosophy is needed. Burton needs to be more willing to do whatever it takes to win, even if that means making the competition angry. As proven by Jeff Gordon, zero victories and a slew of top-5 finishes aren’t enough to automatically attract the sponsorship and long-term commitments needed to stay in the sport.

Perhaps we got a preview last October that such a change was in order. A scuffle with Gordon at Texas highlighted a Chase in which Burton refused to go down quietly. It was a reminder to anyone watching that he still has the fire and the will to win, and he’ll need that in 2011, because the competition will be stiffer than ever.


What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Burton is the closest thing NASCAR has to a voice of reason. “He’s one of the drivers I respect the most in the business,” says a crew chief. “Here’s a guy who was struggling and getting up in years, and he rejuvenated his career. Burton’s as mentally tough as they come. RCR has really come back. They’ve got great horsepower, great cars, but I’d be willing to bet some of that improvement came about from having Burton around.”

Another says, “Burton has a great knack for holding things together. He’s a guy who’s been around and really uses all that knowledge, that experience, he’s picked up along the way.”

A third crew chief says, “I don’t think Burton gets enough credit for his driving ability. Most of what you read is about his personality, but he’s as competitive as it gets. He’s definitely one of those drivers who gets the best out of his car.”


Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: A pair of runner-up showings in Dover last season was encouraging.
Pretty Solid Pick: JB has averaged an 11.4-place finish in 28 trips to Darlington. That’s impressive.
Good Sleeper Pick: Could make some early season noise in Sin City. He’s done so twice before.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: One top-5 finish in 17 Infineon starts? No thanks.
Insider Tip: His consistency is unquestioned, but he won’t deliver a ton of wins. A return to 2006-08 form would be nice.


2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 6
Top 10s: 15
Poles: 0
Laps Led: 539
Laps Completed: 10,556
Lead Lap Finishes: 30
Bonus Points: 95
Races Led: 17
Average Start: 16.6
Average Finish: 15.1
After First 26 Races: 8th
Final Points Standing: 12th
Driver Rating: 96.2 (6th)
 

Ryan Newman by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 39 U.S. Army/Tornados Chevrolet
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
Owner: Tony Stewart/Gene Haas
Crew Chief: Tony Gibson

Years with current team: 3
Under contract through: 2011
Best points finish: 6th (2002, ’03, ’05)

Hometown: South Bend, Ind.
Born: December 8, 1977


2011 Spin
As a shy 25-year-old out of Indiana, NASCAR’s introverted intellectual was the sport’s hottest commodity. Ryan Newman won the 2002 Rookie of the Year and followed it with a sophomore season that was anything but a slump, scoring eight wins and an eye-popping 11 poles. It was only a matter of time, it seemed, until the Purdue graduate reached the top with powerhouse Penske Racing. Surely, he would win a title before 2002’s rookie runner-up, Jimmie Johnson. Right?

Fast-forward to 2011, and the now-33-year-old Newman has seen those tables turn. As Johnson has risen to the pinnacle of success, Newman is searching for the right direction on his career GPS. The only thing remaining red hot about this man is his temper, as Joey Logano and Kasey Kahne found out during awkward post-race confrontations last fall.

As he enters his third year with Stewart-Haas Racing, putting a cap on that frustration seems to be the key to Newman’s future. After two ugly Talladega wrecks in two years, he’s gone on a personal crusade against plate racing, hammering NASCAR to the point that it levied a “secret fine” against Newman that publicly embarrassed both sides. At least in public, the enjoyment he sought so desperately upon leaving Penske in 2008 has eluded him.

“I told Tony, ‘I’m here to have fun. I want to have fun with you,’” he said in 2009. “That’s what racing hasn’t been a whole lot of for me lately due to the fact we had success in ’02, ’03, part of ’04, and since then it hasn't been as successful. I look forward to having fun again.”

Will those days ever come? SHR initially breathed new life into Newman, when he jumped to ninth in points his first year in the No. 39. However, inconsistency, combined with handling horrors, relegated his 2010 finish to 15th. Getting back to the top from there won’t be easy, simply because of his place in the pecking order. One could argue he’s sixth on a totem pole of chassis and engine alliances between four-car Hendrick Motorsports and two-car team SHR.

The man is smart enough to know his nemesis: inconsistency. Even in that brilliant 2003 campaign he fell victim to it, collecting 22 top-10 finishes that were offset by finishes of 22nd or worse in 11 others, including seven DNFs, and that ugly pattern remains.

So what does Newman have going for him? For starters, he and Stewart may be the closest set of teammates in the business. They work well together, and Newman was widely credited with the boss’ shocking 2010 summer turnaround. Second, Hendrick Motorsports’ hand-me-down equipment still holds its value. After all, HMS has produced six championships in the last decade, so the leftovers are certainly going to taste better.

Newman is also a mechanical engineer who understands how racecars work. Drivers have become specialized, and many have never poked their heads under the hood on their own cars like the rough ’n’ tumble sort of years gone by. Not only can Newman turn a wrench, he can also thoroughly analyze a car’s performance, maintaining a wealth of chassis knowledge.

But brain cells can’t substitute for cold, hard cash, and Newman’s team had to rely on co-owner Gene Haas’ automation company for funding in several 2010 events. That scenario will happen again, with Haas picking up at least a dozen races along with the U.S. Army’s 15 and Tornados’ half dozen (to be fair, the organization maintains that this car is financially sound). It’s not that his sponsors don’t back Newman 100 percent — it’s a worry that he doesn’t have sponsorship 100 percent of the time.

If he and crew chief Tony Gibson can get out of the starting gate quickly, they could surprise. Gibson is a veteran of nearly 30 years and no stranger to winning, having worked with Jeff Gordon and Alan Kulwicki in title runs.

Newman has something to prove in 2011. Competitive at both short tracks and flat intermediates, he must step up at both the banked 1.5-milers and plate tracks that prove disastrous for him. Mainly, though, Newman needs consistency to kick this career out of neutral.


What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Stardom is slip-sliding away from Newman. “I think this is a big year for Newman and for his future with Stewart-Haas,” says a prominent crew chief. “I think he needs a good solid year — more than one win, make the Chase — or else he’s going to grow weary of playing second fiddle to Tony Stewart.”

“Remember,” says another, “Ryan Newman is the guy who beat out Jimmie Johnson for Rookie of the Year in 2002. You’ll never get Newman to admit it, but I think, at some level, that eats at him.”

A team owner says, “If he decides he wants to move along again, and I certainly don’t think he has, but he’ll find another good ride because, quite simply, he’s talented. There aren’t many people out there who ever won eight races in a single year (2003). And, by the way, Tony Stewart ain’t one of them.”


Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: No wins at Darlington yet, but Newman has eight finishes of ninth or better in 12 starts.
Pretty Solid Pick: He’s a top-10 performer at Bristol.
Good Sleeper Pick: Not known for his road-racing prowess, but in actuality, the results aren’t bad.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: The Brickyard hasn’t made for a good home-track advantage for this Hoosier.
Insider Tip: Top 10s are always a possibility with Newman, but the wins are becoming fewer and fewer.


2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 1
Top 5s: 4
Top 10s: 14
Poles: 1
Laps Led: 63
Laps Completed: 10,522
Lead Lap Finishes: 28
Bonus Points: 40
Races Led: 8
Average Start: 11.9
Average Finish: 15.7
After First 26 Races: 13th
Final Points Standing: 15th
Driver Rating: 82.2 (18th)
 

Juan Pablo Montoya by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 42 Target Chevrolet
Team: Earnhardt Ganassi Racing
Owner: Chip Ganassi/Teresa Earnhardt
Crew Chief: Brian Pattie

Years with current team: 5
Under contract through: 2011+
Best points finish: 8th (2009)

Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Born: September 20, 1975

2011 Spin
After making a surprising leap into the ranks of the Chase in 2009, Juan Pablo Montoya and the No. 42 team had targeted another bid in 2010, but came up far short of that goal despite a career year from teammate Jamie McMurray. How did the world’s fastest Colombian win last year’s Fallback 500? One quick glance at the stat sheet gives an easy answer. In ’09, Montoya was running at the end of all 36 races. Last year, he failed to finish eight. So why the big difference? Bad luck? Faulty equipment? Over-aggression? Or is Montoya still feeling growing pains adjusting to stock car racing?

The first two are racing obstacles any driver has to deal with, so that doesn’t set Montoya apart. His talent is undeniable; the former open-wheel veteran acclimated himself to big, beefy stock cars sooner than most thought he would as evidenced by his two wins and five poles in his relatively brief career. So that leaves over-aggression as the culprit in the decline.

At times, Montoya’s emotions continue to cause distractions, and he doesn’t act in his best interests on the track and off it when dealing with his fellow Sprint Cup drivers.
One in particular is his teammate, McMurray. The two have a history, stemming from an incident at Bristol a couple years back that makes them NASCAR’s version of The Odd Couple. Things got so bad at Las Vegas in late February after McMurray caused both of them to wreck that Montoya’s wife tweeted in Spanish that McMurray was driving like a giant chicken. But like it or not, they have to find a way to co-exist, as each one is expected to stay over the long term.

McMurray is not the only driver on Montoya’s “hit list,” either. There was an on-track brouhaha with Mark Martin at Chicago, where Montoya offered to give Martin driving lessons. And there was the ugly season-finale when he made contact with Joey Logano. That ended with Montoya getting wrecked under caution in a burst of retaliation. Of course, when you talk to the man he’ll often say none of those incidents was his fault. But bottom line: A driver with a “take no prisoners” attitude has been taking himself out all too often in the process.

“(In 2009), we made the Chase,” he said last October. “This year, we had a lot of wrecks. I think we had the speed to make it, but we didn’t and it’s a bit of a shame. It is what it is.”

The problem with those comments is there’s seemingly no initiative on Montoya’s part to change either his style of driving or his attitude. It’s a worst-case scenario for a team that needs its driver to recognize mistakes — the ugly truth that with eight, nine, 10 wrecks per season, you can’t be the innocent victim in every one.

Montoya’s poor performance is even more shocking when you consider how well he qualifies. An 11.6-average start trailed only Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch in 2010. The No. 42 car once qualified eighth or better in 11 consecutive races, but in that same stretch, finished only two of those in a higher spot — once in winning at Watkins Glen, the other a seventh-place finish after starting eighth at Bristol.

On the plus side, the team enjoys stability from Chevrolet, spurning Ford for 2011, while crew chief Brian Pattie leads a talented returning group of over-the-wall veterans. And just 35, Montoya should be at, or slowly reaching, his prime.

Going forward, the big question seems to be whether Montoya can let his racing do the talking, not his mouth or emotions. Wrecked racecars and tirades certainly aren’t going to put points on the stat sheet, after all. How he handles the adversity will be a gauge on whether or not 2009’s Chase appearance was a sign of things to come or simply a flash in the pan.


What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Montoya is as highly regarded for his talent — no, his brilliance — in NASCAR as he was in Indy cars and Formula One. But the results haven’t been there. “No one has bad luck all year,” says a crew chief. “It all evens out, but not for Juan Pablo. He won a race, but it was on a road course and that’s where he’s supposed to win. His talent is undeniable, but I’m not sure his judgment has improved in four years. A stock car racer has to learn how to pick his spots, and I’m not sure Montoya ever will.”

Another says, “God, I could watch that guy race all day every week. I can’t tell you why he doesn’t win more. He’s not your typical road racer come to NASCAR. He’s got the skill to win at any track.”


Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: The roadies, of course.
Pretty Solid Pick: JPM has gotten pretty good at playing chess on the plate tracks.
Good Sleeper Pick: Atlanta, where that Earnhardt-Childress horsepower pays dividends.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Vegas, one of only two tracks (Homestead being the other) where Montoya has not notched a top 10.
Insider Tip: After two near misses, he’s going to get a Brickyard trophy soon.


2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 1
Top 5s: 6
Top 10s: 14
Poles: 3
Laps Led: 411
Laps Completed: 10,217
Lead Lap Finishes: 22
Bonus Points: 95
Races Led: 17
Average Start: 11.6
Average Finish: 18.0
After First 26 Races: 16th
Final Points Standing: 17th
Driver Rating: 90.9 (11th)

Brad Keselowski

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge
Team: Penske Racing
Owner: Roger Penske
Crew Chief: Paul Wolfe

Years with current team: 2
Under contract through: 2012+
Best points finish: 25th (2010)

Hometown: Rochester Hills, Mich.
Born: February 12, 1984

2011 Spin
NASCAR 2010 was the rebirth of the Bad Boy in NASCAR, and right at the forefront of the “Boys, Have at It” movement was one Brad Keselowski. The second-generation racer from Michigan has had some noteworthy tangles in his short career, including scuffles with some of Sprint Cup’s biggest stars in Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. That he isn’t afraid to stare down anyone in the sport is both a bane and blessing for the 26-year-old, who roars into 2011 with the confidence of a Nationwide Series title under his belt.

“That championship lays a foundation for success,” he says of succeeding in the second-tier division. “It’s a brand of excellence that carries way more than just your own confidence or even ability. It carries into attracting and keeping top talent that can help you get to (the next) level in Cup.”

That on-track development, combined with a fiery independence, allows Keselowski not to be pushed around on the racetrack, unlike talented young peer Joey Logano. He isn’t going to back down if there is a win to be had, and that could be a huge advantage for Keselowski as he moves into the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge this year — a ride that has been piloted by known hotheads for 20 seasons. After being driven by Rusty Wallace and Kurt Busch, the Blue Deuce is almost expected to be at the center of something big.

On the other hand, Keselowski isn’t making a lot of friends, and that can get lonely fast in the Cup Series. It also paints a target on his back, and, deserved or not, that’s not something that helps a guy get a great points finish. The wreckers or checkers philosophy will win some races, but it rarely brings season-long success in a Cup Series where consistency is as important as ever. Aggression requires a certain measure of give-and-take, and Keselowski hasn’t yet mastered the “give” part of the equation. His five DNFs in 2010 — all for wrecks — were more than double the two top-10 finishes he recorded.

What he does have going for him in 2011 is a dedicated sponsor and car owner. The Miller Brewing Company has as much tenure as any sponsor in the sport, and as an organization, Penske Racing has enjoyed 58 NASCAR wins with two teams in the last 20 seasons.

Also in his favor is the promotion of his NNS crew chief, Paul Wolfe, to the Cup operation. The chemistry between the two is unmistakable — the Nationwide title is proof of that — and Wolfe is viewed as one of the can’t-miss up and coming crew chiefs in the garage. As an added bonus, Penske’s motors have been some of the most durable in NASCAR in recent years (the organization suffered only a single engine failure in 2010).

Dodge is also dedicated, albeit shorthanded in the number of teams it supports. The manufacturer has all its eggs in Penske’s basket, although the future partnership of the two can be questioned with Penske’s upcoming Chevy commitment in IndyCar. Finally, the fact that Penske took team-building advice from Keselowski when he arrived from the Hendrick fold says a lot for the driver’s level of talent and understanding of what makes a team successful. The Nationwide program, an expanded workforce in the shop and engineering improvement can all be attributed to Keselowski’s consistent nagging to change the team’s internal culture.

Now, it’s time for the driver himself to mature. His hot temper puts him in some bad situations. One such incident last year came at Atlanta, where a perceived slight of Edwards resulted in Keselowski’s launching into a spectacular airborne flip.

One thing that needs to be questioned is Keselowski’s commitment to a full Nationwide Series schedule in 2011 — regardless of the rules. Historically, this has hurt drivers’ Cup efforts more than it’s helped, and in Keselowski’s case, some festering feuds have had their roots in that series. While a few double-duty drivers have successfully made the Chase, they haven’t won Cup titles. And with the Miller Lite backing carrying sky-high expectations with it, Keselowski may need to make a decision in the near future about where his dedication lies, for 2011 will be a season in which he is tested at NASCAR’s top level — and he needs to pass.


What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Everyone is waiting for Keselowski to become regularly competitive in Sprint Cup. “It seems really important to Keselowski that he assert himself,” says a crew chief, “and that gets him in a lot of trouble at the Sprint Cup level. He’s got what it takes to be a championship contender, but I think he’s just got to learn to be at home and comfortable in Cup. It’s hard to say whether his struggles are driver or car, but my suspicion is that it’s car. Another year might make all the difference in the world.”

Another crew chief says, “He’s made some enemies by sort of acting like, ‘Hey, I’m not taking nothing off nobody,’ but now he’s got to realize, OK, he’s shown everybody he’s got some toughness. Now he’s got to settle down and act like he belongs.”


Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: The plate tracks — particularly Talladega.
Pretty Solid Pick: The more physical the better. Watch him at Bristol and Martinsville.
Good Sleeper Pick: Surprisingly, the youngster runs well at Darlington. Not many do.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Not surprisingly, he’s still got a way to go to hang with the Cup boys on the road courses.
Insider Tip: He’s still learning the ropes and the team is still coming together. Use in select events only.


2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 0
Top 10s: 2
Poles: 1
Laps Led: 41
Laps Completed: 10,410
Lead Lap Finishes: 16
Bonus Points: 30
Races Led: 6
Average Start: 23.0
Average Finish: 22.4
After First 26 Races: 26th
Final Points Standing: 25th
Driver Rating: 65.1 (26th)