Photo by ASP, Inc.

Well, that was … unique.

New-look cars (noses and paint schemes), average speeds well over 200 mph, a surface we knew was Daytona but sure resembled Talladega, two-by-two drafts that evolved into four-car freight trains and the second-place car being deemed the winner.

Yep, NASCAR must be back.

The Budweiser Shootout from Daytona International Speedway typically gives fans and pundits alike a barometer from which to gauge the following weekend’s Daytona 500. But Saturday night’s edition raised more questions than provided answers.

Kurt Busch — long a solid plate racer with a knack for missing the big wreck — scored his first Daytona win, even though he was beat to the finish line by three one-thousandths of a second by Denny Hamlin. However, NASCAR ruled Hamlin ducked below the yellow “out of bounds” line to make the race-winning pass of Ryan Newman. Therefore, Hamlin was relegated to a 12th-place finish due to his transgression.

While the ending raised issues (the nearly-annual yellow line rule will be dissected once again), the average speeds and two-car drafts will be in the spotlight throughout the week. And most expect NASCAR to make changes to the rules package in the interest of safety and — let’s be honest — excitement.

The 200 mph mark has been the ceiling of speed NASCAR has tolerated on the two plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega). Despite safety improvements, there is no way to predict what a car will do when turned sideways or backward at that rate of speed. And following a car-in-the-grandstands near-miss at Talladega two seasons ago, NASCAR is more vigilant than ever about keeping the action within the field of play.

A $20 million repave of Daytona has produced increased grip and low tire wear that, combined with cool temperatures and mechanics’ ingenuity, had in-draft average speeds at 206 mph on Saturday evening. Concurrently, driver ingenuity gleaned from races at Talladega and January testing at Daytona has spawned the two-car draft phenomenon.

Unlike in the past, two cars hooked together are actually faster than a four-, five- or six-car, single-file draft. This due to the lead car acting as the steering wheel and brake, while the follower the engine and spoiler. This new plate-track version of “co-opetition,” as Darrell Waltrip so accurately dubs it, holds true to the old axiom that if “two’s a party, three’s a crowd.” In short, the third car brings nothing to the table, and is actually a liability.

“The front car (in the two-car pack) gets the clean air, the motor,” Second-place finisher Ryan Newman said. “The back car takes the air off the front car's spoiler. Even though he gets the air taken out of his motor, he's still pushing the car in front of him and he's getting that help. If there was that third car he doesn't have the air in the column to help propel him forward, so the front car has got the biggest motor, the second car is just helping push along, and the way the drag works out.”

The question on everyone’s minds, though, is whether NASCAR will make changes to handicap the two-car advantage or adjust spoilers or restrictor plates to bring speeds down. Drivers were varied in their opinions about what, if anything, should be done, while NASCAR’s competition director, Robin Pemberton, gave this insight following the event:

“You can do a lot of things,” Pemberton said. “You have to do what’s best for the large group, whatever that is. We’ve talked to some of the engineers and crew chiefs and solicited some different ideas and talked to them about the methodology of how they do things.

“We’ll have to take all that and put it together. We’ve got some time. That’s the good news, being Saturday. We’ve got some ideas. We just have to get together and talk about them.”

Reading in between the lines, changes are coming. How extensive they are and how they change the complexion of the draft remain to be seen.

Photo by ASP, Inc.

by Mike Neff

There have always been races decided by strategy over speed in NASCAR, but pit calls in 2011 may play a bigger factor in race results than ever before. NASCAR has changed some rules for the upcoming racing season that will make the crew chiefs’ decisions more difficult and more critical than at any time in the past.

E15 fuel and the resulting change in fueling rigs, the elimination of the catch can man and stricter limits on tires during the race will have an impact on what crew chiefs decide during pit stops — and ultimately who wins many of the races this season.

NASCAR changed the fueling rules in the Camping World Truck Series last year, going to a self-venting dump can. With the advent of E15 fuel (an ethanol blend) in all of the national touring series, it became necessary to implement the can in all three touring series to minimize the potential for moisture entering the fuel system. With the self-venting can, the teams no longer need a catch can man over the wall, which has not only put several men out of a job, but thrown a curveball to crew chiefs up and down pit road.

In the past, the catch can man made all of the chassis adjustments during pit stops while holding the catch can in place. Whether making a wedge or track bar adjustment, the crewman would engage the can and then use a long-handled ratchet to alter the chassis settings that were accessible through the rear window. With the catch can now out of the equation, the person making the alterations will differ depending on the team. About half of the crew chiefs surveyed during the recent NASCAR Media Tour felt that the rear tire carrier would make the adjustments no matter what the call. However, the other half had a far different view of the new choreography of a pit stop.

The various scenarios that arise during a stop will cause different people to have different responsibilities when the car makes its way to pit road. If a team is only changing two tires, then the tire carrier should have plenty of time to make chassis changes. However, during a four-tire stop the tire carrier needs to quickly get back to the left side of the car, thus slowing the stop if a chassis adjustment is needed. If the car doesn’t need a full fuel load, the fuel man may be responsible for dumping one can and then making chassis changes.

Some teams are even experimenting with utilizing two men who will act as fuel men and tire carriers. In this instance, the right side tire carrier will come back and grab the second can of gas while the first will dump his can, make the changes, then grab the left-rear tire.

As you can see, the scenarios can build up quickly, and some crew chiefs are exploring every possible aspect to minimize the amount of time spent in the pits. The chiefs at Stewart-Haas Racing are even considering having their crew members wear wrist bands like NFL quarterbacks with different numbered “plays,” depending on what the situation calls for, with each member having different duties for different scenarios.

One other aspect of the new dump can that will cause some serious heartburn for crew chiefs is the fact that the flow of fuel out of the can is slower than it was under the old system. New cans take approximately 14 seconds to dump a full fuel load into a car. With teams routinely clicking off sub-13 second pit stops, crew chiefs must decide whether they want to have a full fuel load or better track position. If a team waits for the full load, other teams will beat them off pit road by pulling their fuel can as soon as the rear tire changer is finished.

The teams will be forced to spend even more time studying individual race history, trying to determine the possibility of runs going green for a full fuel load or if caution flags will interrupt the race in the waning laps, allowing for an extra stop. Whatever the trends, there will always be situations where the race doesn’t go according to Hoyle. The call to fill or not to fill is going to factor numerous times throughout the season.

NASCAR is also limiting the number of tires teams are allowed to use during practice and the race. In the past, there was a soft limit, but teams were allowed to “borrow” tires from other teams that dropped out of a race, so theoretically they had more tires than they could possibly use.

With the new rule, there will be different amounts of tires depending on the track and the length of the race, but every team will be limited to what they’re allotted and will not simply be able to change tires during each stop — a no-brainer in the past. In addition, teams will be limited on the number of tires they can use for practice sessions, which will put an emphasis on time management because practice times are now used to determine qualifying order. Timing practice schedules so that they have a fresh set of tires to bolt on when the conditions are optimal to lay down a fast lap will be the order of the day. The limit on tires will most likely have an impact on the fueling strategy, as well, because teams that don’t take tires will be limited by the time it takes to dump fuel and may only take one can to limit time spent on pit lane.

The crew chief has been a critical link in the racing chain for years, but the pressure to make the right calls is going to be greater than ever in 2011. Tony Gibson, crew chief of the No. 39 team, was asked whether he believes that calls from the pit box could ultimately decide who wins the championship in 2011.

“Absolutely,” was his quick and sure-fire response.

Cup racing has always been a copycat sport, and this season — especially over the first month — will witness more pit road procedural theft than at any time in the past. If Gibson is correct, how each team handles the new rules will not only determine how individual races unfold, but how a championship is won.
 

Kyle Busch by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 18 M&M’s/Wrigley Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Owner: Joe Gibbs
Crew Chief: Dave Rogers

Years with current team: 4
Under contract through: 2012
Best points finish: 5th (2007)

Hometown: Las Vegas, Nev.
Born: May 2, 1985

2011 Spin
It is often said that a man can be his own worst enemy. At times, it seems like that particular phrase was written explicitly for Kyle Busch. There is no doubting that Busch has talent to spare. In 2010 alone, he scored 24 wins in NASCAR’s top three series, a modern-era record, and on any given weekend he has the capability to dominate a race. But Busch is just as likely to make headlines on Monday morning for his erratic behavior and temper, the key reason this talented young driver is never given serious consideration as a true title contender where it matters most: Sprint Cup.

Take 2010 as an example. As “focused” as Busch was, making a NASCAR-high 81 starts in the Cup, Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series, he was just as busy making new “friends.” First, there was the chiding of Boris Said in Atlanta following a practice wreck that did little more than cosmetic damage. Then, there was the All-Star Race accident with Denny Hamlin in May that even had Busch spewing death threats toward his teammate on the radio. Three months later, it was Busch vs. Brad Keselowski at Bristol in the Nationwide Series, followed by Busch vs. David Reutimann at Kansas that effectively ended any championship hopes he had.

But the kicker for Kyle was an incident at Texas, where a single-finger salute to a NASCAR official and a tirade over the radio summarize why, until he grows up, Busch will fall short of championship material. His emotions run wild, a type of petulant, childish behavior when things go wrong that leaves everyone struggling to remain supportive in times of crisis.

“(Kyle) gets so uptight that, every now and then, he makes mistakes,” said team owner Joe Gibbs after Busch was given a two-lap penalty, fined, and placed on probation for the Texas incident. “We’ve got to do everything we can to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

It’s easier said than done, even with a great motivator like Gibbs leading the way. And how much longer will crew chief Dave Rogers want to put up with it before he looks to follow Steve Addington out the door? An uneven ending to the season for that partnership with sniping on the radio has many wondering just how good the chemistry is behind closed doors. Even Hamlin has voiced frustration with the way Busch communicates; it’s an internal rivalry that seems to leave most siding with Gibbs’ veteran driving leader — not NASCAR’s Bad Boy.

On the plus side, Busch returns in 2011 with his team virtually intact, with strong sponsorship from M&M’s, Wrigley and Interstate Batteries and a multi-year contract of his own in hand. However, an insistence to race in all three series, considering Busch also serves as owner/driver for his Truck Series operation, can leave him both temperamental and worn out heading into Cup races. Sponsorship problems remain on the Truck side, too, leaving Busch with financial strain and additional stress he doesn’t need.

His Cup team has a few kinks to work out on mile-and-a-half tracks — Busch hasn’t won on one since Las Vegas in March 2009 — but to be honest, he has the equipment needed to win. The one gaping weakness that must be fixed is one place no mechanic can reach: his head.

“Even in my relatively short time here in NASCAR, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that I wear my emotions on my sleeve,” Busch said in a statement after the Texas trouble. “Sometimes that passion has allowed me to find that little something extra I needed to win, and other times it’s made me cross the line.”

Those words make it seem, albeit for a moment, like Busch is learning. But considering he ended the season with another wrecked racecar following a run-in with Kevin Harvick, after which the two exchanged verbal jabs, it doesn’t seem like he can stay on the good boy wagon for long.

People may criticize Jimmie Johnson for being “too vanilla” and “boring,” but he is the one currently looking for a place to stash a fifth straight championship trophy. For Busch to take his game to the next level, he needs to back up what he says with his actions on the track, because while winning races is nice, it doesn’t bring titles.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Busch is seen by some as the uncrowned champion in waiting. “I’d work with him in a heartbeat,” says another driver’s crew chief. “He’s got so much talent that you can’t help but wish you had that guy in your car. A guy who can drive like that takes pressure off his crew chief because the car doesn’t have to be perfect.”

Another says, “I laugh every time I hear somebody say something about ‘the new Kyle Busch.’ He’s just one wreck, one bad break, away from showing his ass again. But part of that’s what makes him such a winner. He hates to lose, and it’s not just talk.”

Another crew chief says, “He’s either going to wind up as this great talent who never quite fulfilled it, or he’s going to get his head on straight and reel off some championships. I know it’s getting old to say this, but he’s still got plenty of time.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: Most anywhere. He’s streaky, so let the previous two or three runs guide you.
Pretty Solid Pick: He’s currently the King of Bristol. Although it runs in shifts.
Good Sleeper Pick: If he can avoid the wreck, he could win the Daytona 500.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: He’s typically thrown in the towel by Homestead. Or gotten wrecked there.
Insider Tip: What are we going to do with you, Kyle? Channel all that emotion into the right place and you could win every other race.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 3
Top 5s: 10
Top 10s: 18
Poles: 2
Laps Led: 1,271
Laps Completed: 10,607
Lead Lap Finishes: 29
Bonus Points: 115
Races Led: 19
Average Start: 15.8
Average Finish: 14.0
After First 26 Races: 4th
Final Points Standing: 8th
Driver Rating: 98.2 (3rd)
 

Greg Biffle by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 16 3M Ford
Team: Roush Fenway Racing
Owners: Jack Roush/John Henry
Crew Chief: Greg Erwin

Years with current team: 9
Under contract through: 2011
Best points finish: 2nd (2005)

Hometown: Vancouver, Wash.
Born: December 23, 1969

2011 Spin
There comes a time in each driver’s career when he finds himself at a crossroads, and 2011 could be that year for Greg Biffle. Both his sponsorship and contract run through the end of the season, which could be a blessing or a curse depending on how well the situation is handled.

You might think it foolish for Roush Fenway Racing to let go of a driver who has finished in the top 10 in points the last three seasons and remains hungry in his bid to become the first driver to win a title in each of NASCAR’s three top series. But at 41 years old, Biffle is advancing in age to the point that sponsorship isn’t a slam dunk in the boardroom, especially since he’s not exactly Mr. Personality and is more comfortable welding sheet metal than pitching product.

To get the right type of financial backing over the long term, he must perform at a title-contending level throughout the year. Step one in that process is for the Greg Erwin-led No. 16 team to step off the rollercoaster and back on solid ground. After posting six top-10 finishes to start 2010, Biffle never had more than two straight until November, becoming an expert in between at snuffing out momentum before it started. His two victories were followed by finishes of 24th and 41st, respectively, the perfect example of how this team zigzagged all over the chart.

When it’s on, there’s potential for the 16 bunch to be the best Blue Oval team in camp. Only Carl Edwards matched Biffle’s two-victory total at Roush, and with 16 overall wins in nine seasons he’s quietly racked up some quality stats. The Erwin-Biffle pairing is nearly four years old, a stability that trickles down inside a four-car organization that plans to return the same driver, sponsor and head wrench lineup for 2011. With Biffle bringing up the rear of an RFR four-five-six points finish, it’s important to note that RFR’s three top teams remained successful even in a down year. And just like his teammates, Biffle ended last season on a hot streak with three straight top 10s, leaving him hopeful for 2011.

“I think we are positioned really good for (this) year. I expect a lot of exciting things for 2011,” he said last November. “Maybe four or five wins and a run for the title, I hope.”

Let’s hope the parts and pieces get that message. Mechanical failures seem to hit Biffle at the worst possible time, two costly engine DNFs mixed with countless other complaints about brakes, drive trains … seemingly every part under the sun. And as Denny Hamlin showed last year, it’s not the number of wins that will finally dethrone Jimmie Johnson and the Hendrick juggernaut, but rather consistency in the final 10 races. That’s something Biffle has struggled with, earning only nine top 10s in the last 20 Chase races coupled with four results outside the top 20.

Reliability issues boil down to the FR9 engine, prepped and ready for its first full season of competition in 2011. The horsepower it’s produced has been magical, but despite delays in production, a handful of failures late in the postseason leave many wondering if further tuneups are needed. The transition at Richard Petty Motorsports could also play a factor with Biffle, who credits research from that “B” program with turning around the organization last summer. With only a two-car program, new investors and a different support system, it’s unclear how much help it will be should RFR engineering fall behind in 2011.

Biffle and the Ford camp certainly have reason to be optimistic based on how the season ended, but so do teammates Edwards and Matt Kenseth, both of whom have found more success late in the season. While the talent and equipment are there to get the job done, when there are more attractive options to choose from within your own program, chances are the title won’t tilt your way. Just call it “The Jeff Gordon Rule.”

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

The recurring word used to describe Biffle is “fast.” A crew chief says, “Roush Fenway’s whole operation was off for the first half of the year, then the whole team started improving. Usually that carries over. That was the case with RCR last year, and it’s probably going to be a big year for Roush Fenway for the same reason.”

Another crew chief says, “You know what? Biffle is as close to a throwback as any driver out there. He paid his dues, didn’t get to Cup when he was a kid, and his attitude, that gritty determination, reminds me of guys from a couple decades back.”

A familiar face in the garage says, “I like Biffle’s no-nonsense style. He’s a straight shooter. He always gives it his best. Biffle reminds me of Mark Martin sometimes.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: He’s really turned it on at Kansas the last four years with two wins and two third-place finishes.
Pretty Solid Pick: Biffle has 10 top 10s at both Michigan (16 starts) and Dover (17).
Good Sleeper Pick: He’s not thought of as a short tracker, but he has 10 top 10s in 16 starts at Bristol.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Martinsville. Just stay away.
Insider Tip: Thirteen of his 16 career Cup wins have come on the 1.5- and 2-mile ovals. He’s basically Carl Edwards without the backflip. Or the muscles.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 2
Top 5s: 9
Top 10s: 19
Poles: 0
Laps Led: 543
Laps Completed: 10,410
Lead Lap Finishes: 25
Bonus Points: 70
Races Led: 12
Average Start: 15.9
Average Finish: 15.4
After First 26 Races: 7th
Final Points Standing: 6th
Driver Rating: 88.4 (12th)
 

Martin Truex Jr. by ASP, Inc.

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 56 NAPA Toyota
Team: Michael Waltrip Racing
Owner: Michael Waltrip/Rob Kauffman
Crew Chief: Pat Tryson

Years with current team: 2
Under contract through: 2011+
Best points finish: 11th (2007)

Hometown: Mayetta, N.J.
Born: June 29, 1980

2011 Spin
Normally, showing up the boss isn’t the best career move. But in the case of Martin Truex Jr., not only was that process encouraged, but it was hailed as progress after owner/driver Michael Waltrip stepped out of the now-No. 56 seat. Following a dismal 2009 season, Waltrip made the decision to step back from behind the wheel and let someone else take over, luring Truex from a plum ride at Earnhardt Ganassi Racing as a replacement. It’s a move that saw limited results. But there is promise on the horizon as the team is expected to fully mature in 2011.

A look at the 2010 stats shows a Chase bid this year might be a long shot, with just one top-5 finish, seven top 10s, 88 laps led and a 22nd-place finish in the final standings. But consider the stats with Waltrip the past three years: a total of one top 5, six top 10s and no points finish higher than 29th. Considering Truex was a surprise postseason contender — he was 16th in points before some unlikely contact with Jeff Gordon helped derail his Chase bid at Infineon last June — how quickly they righted this downtrodden program bodes well for the future.

That focus starts squarely in the shop with the guiding, reasoned hand of crew chief Pat Tryson. A veteran who has seen success with the likes of Kurt Busch and Mark Martin, Tryson has formed an instant chemistry with Truex, and both parties fully believe in each other.

“We’ve continued to fight. We’ve never given up and made some noise this season,” said Truex of his year last November. “We've got some stuff to work on, but we know what we need to work on so I expect to come out of the box strong in 2011.”

Atop the list is something as simple as fixing TRD’s engine program. Michael Waltrip Racing endured seven DNFs for engine failures among drivers Truex, David Reutimann, and JTG Daugherty affiliate Marcos Ambrose, along with over a half-dozen races in which cars went behind the wall for other mechanical issues. You can’t have consistency without reliability, a fault that has seemed to dog MWR since the start of its program in 2007.

Truex also needs to stand up for himself, a trait he learned after Gordon spun him without retribution in a momentum-stealing moment that ruined his season. Often known as the quiet guy, Truex is well liked off the track but perceived to be one of the most passive guys on it, someone who can be pushed around for position. Reutimann, his teammate, shares that trait. Of the two, Truex is more likely to build the backbone needed for success.

“Nice guys finish last,” he said at Loudon last June. “The nice guy gets pushed around, and I’m tired of being the nice guy. I haven’t seen much respect all year, to be honest with you, at the racetrack. Guys take advantage of you every chance they get. We get put in a difficult position because the field is close, every spot means so much, the clean air situation … there’s so much pressure to get everything we can get. I think guys just cross the line too much. I don’t know the answer and how to fix that. I just know how I’m going to do it. I’m just going to do what everyone does to me every week.”

Should Truex live up to his word — getting aggressive when it matters most — the keys are in place for long-term success. He and Reutimann have similar personalities and mesh well together. He’s run well at a variety of tracks, scoring at least one top 10 at a short track, intermediate, flat and restrictor plate ovals in 2010, and is expected to race out of the box strong during Speedweeks in February. Remember, if there’s one thing his boss knows how to help with, it’s winning the Daytona 500. Waltrip’s biggest claim to fame is as a two-time champ, in 2001 and ’03.

We wouldn’t recommend any more “NAPA Know How” karaoke commercials (that might be better left to the boss, too), but the Truex/Tryson relationship is one that could go far, as Waltrip breeds positivity within the No. 56 ranks. In fact, the next song all parties might be singing is in celebration of making the Chase come September.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Truex, who left Earnhardt Ganassi Racing a year ago, suffers in comparison to his successor at his previous team. “I hate to say it and wouldn’t have predicted it,” says a crew chief, “but Jamie McMurray really made Truex look bad. Martin’s a good guy and a real good driver. Maybe his team has made progress that just hasn’t shown itself yet.”

Another says, “That team (Michael Waltrip Racing) is always overrated. It always gets more attention that it deserves. People always predict it’s going to do better than it actually does.”

A rival team owner says, “Truex gets the job done behind the wheel. The team may have to get its act together, but he’s definitely a driver who ought to be winning races.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: Always shows up at his home track of Dover.
Pretty Solid Pick: A versatile sort, Truex can notch top-5 results on most any type of track ...
Good Sleeper Pick: ... even on the road courses.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Bristol, which is surprising considering he runs so well at Dover — a ’roid’d up Bristol.
Insider Tip: Nagging mechanical issues are the one thing holding the Truex/Tryson duo back. Once corrected, they’ll be tough.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 1
Top 10s: 7
Poles: 1
Laps Led: 88
Laps Completed: 10,327
Lead Lap Finishes: 25
Bonus Points: 45
Races Led: 9
Average Start: 17.1
Average Finish: 18.8
After First 26 Races: 20th
Final Points Standing: 22nd
Driver Rating: 82.2 (19th)
 

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet
Team: Richard Childress Racing
Owner: Richard Childress
Crew Chief: Gil Martin

Years with current team: 11
Under contract through: 2012+
Best points finish: 3rd (2010)

Hometown: Bakersfield, Calif.
Born: December 8, 1975

2011 Spin
The second race of 2011 will mark Kevin Harvick’s 10th anniversary in the seat of the No. 29 at Richard Childress Racing. Harvick was a 25-year-old star in the making in 2001, slated to run the then-Busch Series while learning under the tutelage of men like Dale Earnhardt. The future was unclear for a relative unknown who was never expected to carry the weight of a team on his back.

Harvick was forced into the big leagues in only the season’s second week, though, following the death of Earnhardt, and shocked NASCAR Nation with two victories and a ninth-place points finish.

Now, 10 years later, Harvick retains that role of overachiever, going from the brink of divorce with RCR to championship threat after winning the regular season points title and posting arguably the best all-around season of his career.

The question as 2011 dawns is whether the team he works for still believes in a man whose biting criticism left a lasting impression during the Chase campaign. Ditching his pit crew five races into the postseason, the driver nicknamed “Happy” raised hell over their performance, even going out of his way at Homestead, when asked what he’d do different in the Chase, to proclaim, “I would take the first five (Chase races) back with the pit crew that I had the last five.” That over-the-wall group will stay with Clint Bowyer this year, but everyone has to scratch their heads over Harvick’s often aggressive, Bob Knight-style of putting people in their place through the media and over the team’s radio.

Keep in mind — this driver was shopping Shell/Pennzoil around to other teams, ready to bolt before the sponsor’s April bombshell signing with Penske Racing left him forced to re-sign at RCR. In public, Harvick and Childress say all the right things, although in private their relationship, once deemed irreparable in ’09, remains strained at times. Any hint of a struggle will rip the band-aid off these connections, damage healed only by the joys of on-track success and not personal apology. Crew chief Gil Martin is an expert at handling Harvick’s moody moments, but this team remains a powder keg with a driver unafraid to light the fuse at any time.

On the plus side, Harvick’s passion can be a good thing. The man wants to win so badly you can feel it, and when he channels that passion into driving, he can be unstoppable. With that emotional edge, keeping the consistency found in 2010 will be the No. 29 team’s biggest challenge. Harvick has always been streaky, either a title contender or an also-ran, and he needs to prove he can pick up the pieces of what could have (maybe should have) been his championship season in 2010.

Qualifying continues to be this veteran’s Achilles heel, with two poles in 2010 tempered by 15 starts of 26th or worse. Week in and week out, that’s an awful lot of cars for a driver to pass to get to the front, and it might have made the difference in a Chase competition defined by track position.

The other question mark for the year is sponsorship. When Shell/Pennzoil defected, Childress picked up Budweiser in a multi-year deal, but the long-time NASCAR supporter’s funding is only for 20 races. Jimmy Johns, a longtime sponsor of Harvick’s Nationwide Series cars, will pick up the tab for six additional events, but that leaves 10 with no sponsor on the hood. RCR likely will find the decals to fill the space, but the uncertainty threatens to cause a distraction.

At least this much is known: Childress will not let this team go down in flames. Lest anyone forget its heritage, the small number 3 on the door is an instant reminder of six championships won with Earnhardt. Childress would like nothing more than for this car to return to its former glory. RCR equipment is durable, and Earnhardt-Childress engines have been the gold standard in terms of Cup Series horsepower over the last year.

It’s hard to shake Harvick’s inconsistencies, though, and it’s important to note that he has never put together back-to-back top-5 points finishes. With a volatile personality, 2011 has a feast-or-famine look to it, although even in a worst-case scenario it’s hard to see last year’s regular-season points champion missing the Chase.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

Harvick has the style of a champion, or at least a champion back before the Chase was implemented in 2004. “Harvick was always the same, from the start of the season to the finish,” says one prominent observer. “He got the best out of the car and brought it home in one piece.”

Adds a rival crew chief, “You know, I think he’s still trying to find his place in NASCAR. There are times when it almost looks like he sees himself as ‘the enforcer’ of the sport. His style earns the respect of some and the alienation of others. But his numbers and his personality don’t match up. He gets in a lot of scraps, but he always manages to get a decent finish anyway. That’s hard to do.”

Another crew chief says, “Kevin’s one of those guys whose personality and numbers don’t mesh. He seems to get in a lot of scraps, but he’s got that knack to work through them and still get a good finish.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: After some lean years, Harvick has become quite the plate racer.
Pretty Solid Pick: Lots of places, but especially Indy, where he has seven top 10s in 10 starts.
Good Sleeper Pick: His 7.9-place average at Homestead is his best, although he has no wins there.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: He’s got an all-star win, but otherwise it’s been pretty ugly at Charlotte.
Insider Tip: Clicked off top 10s even at tracks where he traditionally underperformed in 2010. A good play most weeks.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 3
Top 5s: 16
Top 10s: 26
Poles: 2
Laps Led: 357
Laps Completed: 10,645
Lead Lap Finishes: 32
Bonus Points: 90
Races Led: 16
Average Start: 21.0
Average Finish: 8.7
After First 26 Races: 3rd
Final Points Standing: 3rd
Driver Rating: 98.0 (4th)
 

2011 Driver Countdown

No. 11 FedEx Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Owner: Joe Gibbs
Crew Chief: Mike Ford

Years with current team: 7
Under contract through: 2011
Best points finish: 2nd (2010)

Hometown: Chesterfield, Va.
Born: November 11, 1980

2011 Spin
Sometimes, stats can be deceiving when assessing a driver’s mental state of mind. After a season when your win total equaled the number you had in the previous five years combined, finishing a career-best second in the standings, how would you remember it? On paper, it seems like a reason to throw a party all the way through that speech at the banquet in Las Vegas.

But for Denny Hamlin, he spent that night looking longingly at the head table, shaking his head while lamenting a championship that slipped away. It’s the type of disappointing second-place Chase result that sticks with you, attributable to poor fuel mileage, nerves and poorly timed trash talk. Following his eighth win of the season at Texas, Hamlin took the point lead with just two races left but saw a decision to pit for gas a week later come back to bite him, dropping from second to a 12th-place finish at Phoenix while Jimmie Johnson wound up fifth without stopping. Then, a dismal qualifying effort put him behind the eight ball from the get-go at Homestead, as a week’s worth of verbal pressure in the media from rivals Johnson and Kevin Harvick eventually took their toll.

“I’ll be honest with you, I was not nervous at any point until about an hour before the race,” he said afterwards. “That’s really when it hit me.”

Ninety minutes later, he was spinning off of Greg Biffle’s No. 16 car, and his Chase bid was sinking in the Florida swamp. He left Homestead without the big trophy but armed with plenty of questions about whether or not this team could mount another run at the title in 2011 after wiping out a season’s worth of smiles in one fell swoop. Despite a comeback driver of the year performance, when he recovered from ACL surgery in late March to establish numbers that set the standard at Joe Gibbs Racing, Hamlin’s development from occasional contender to weekly threat to reach Victory Lane means little if momentum has truly died on the vine.

That’s where the last in a trio of poorly timed missteps threatens Hamlin the most for 2011. Crew chief Mike Ford took some swipes at the Chad Knaus-led No. 48 team after Hamlin’s Texas win, knocking a decision from afar on how Hendrick Motorsports swapped pit crews mid-race. Team members at HMS publicly and privately claimed that the comments led to internal motivation, a waking-the-sleeping-giant moment that helped beat back the challenge of the No. 11 for good. Combine that with some ugly quotes from the driver after Phoenix — “I can save fuel pretty well, I did my job” — and his relationship with Ford could become an intriguing subplot this spring. The men aren’t friends off the track, lacking the type of deep bond that typically keeps the Johnson/Knaus type of relationship rolling through thick and thin, and Hamlin knows how much those poor decisions killed their title effort.

Another reason that a repeat run is unlikely is the emotional toll the Chase took on Hamlin himself. Still young, entering only his sixth full-time series of Cup competition, he may not have the experience and maturity to bounce back after such a cruel letdown. Long known for being a driver who thinks with his heart, Hamlin had learned to use his head until the fuel mileage folly seemed to throw his confidence for a loop.

“I have to leave Phoenix in Phoenix,” Hamlin said then, although he later admitted he had not. “That’s the thing is you can’t let this … I couldn’t control it. Things didn’t work out for me. I felt like we’ve been the best car over this Chase, and we might not win it.”

That they didn’t says a lot about the 30-year-old’s psyche, a second-place hangover likely to continue, a la Carl Edwards, who had a similar season (nine wins, runner-up points finish in ’08) turn into a winless disaster in ’09. And notice that Hamlin says things “didn’t work out for me.” Not the team, but “me.” Winning in the Sprint Cup Series takes a team effort. No driver, no matter how talented, can do it alone. That’s why 2011 is setting up as a likely down year for the No. 11 team, one in which they’ll need to mature and grow together again before making another serious title run.

What The Competition Is Saying
Thoughts from anonymous garage-area owners, crew chiefs and team members.

How did Hamlin fall short in the 2010 Chase? “I think (crew chief) Mike Ford did exactly what Chad Knaus did in 2005, the year before Jimmie Johnson’s streak started,” says one rival crew chief. “They were putting their best stuff back and saving it for the Chase all the way back to the spring. I think Ford studied Knaus and tried to peak for the Chase just like Johnson does every year. Hamlin just couldn’t execute the plan as well as Johnson, that’s all.”

Another crew chief adds, “That’s OK, though. They’ll be better prepared the next time around. Hamlin’s just coming into his own. He’s going to get better. Johnson probably isn’t. How could he?”

“I don’t know whether or not Hamlin won over everybody else, but he certainly proved himself to me,” says a team owner. “He showed a lot of guts driving while he was hurt, recovering from knee surgery, and the fact that he didn’t quite win the championship? As far as I’m concerned, he just lost a coin flip. It could’ve gone either way.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers: Martinsville and Pocono. Book ’em.
Pretty Solid Pick: The Virginia Ham-lin always steps it up at home in Richmond.
Good Sleeper Pick: Hard to consider Hamlin a sleeper anywhere these days.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Has not been a huge threat on the plate tracks, but you know how that can change when the right guy sticks to your bumper.
Insider Tip: He’s recorded a top-5 finish at every track on the circuit in his short career. That should tell you something.

2010 Stats
Starts: 36
Wins: 8
Top 5s: 14
Top 10s: 18
Poles: 2
Laps Led: 1,184
Laps Completed: 10,530
Lead Lap Finishes: 29
Bonus Points: 125
Races Led: 20
Average Start: 17.2
Average Finish: 12.9
After First 26 Races: 1st
Final Points Standing: 2nd
Driver Rating: 96.2 (5th)