By Paul Hickey

NoOffseason.com

After huge performances by Chargers RB Mike Tolbert and Falcons RB Jason Snelling in Week 2, this stock market report might not be what you’d expect, but then again, I’ve never been a huge fan of being captain obvious.

Believe it or not, I’m not targeting those guys at all this week as risers. While Snelling put up 40 fantasy points in PPR leagues, and Tolbert scored twice, rushing for 82 yards on 16 carries, neither are likely to start in Week 3. Michael Turner (groin) will return, and Ryan Mathews (ankle) will have his status updated on Wednesday after practice. This news leaves these guys in fantasy limbo, which means you should NOT go rushing to the waiver wire to pick these guys up. So, if the two highest performing RBs in Week 2 (other than Jahvid Best) aren’t rising, who exactly is?

RISING

Clay Matthews, LB, Packers - Are you serious? 12 solo tackles — five of them sacks — and a forced fumble in the first to weeks of the season makes the second year man from USC an elite linebacker in “big play” IDP leagues. He’ll be tough for offenses to block all year, and his ability to make regular tackles and not simply rely on sacks makes him more than just your typical “boom or bust” big play backer.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets - Fantasy owners saw the real Keller in Week 2 against the Patriots, as he snagged seven passes for 115 yards and a TD. He may not put up those stats each week, but he certainly will be the Jets' leading receiver, at least until Santonio Holmes returns from suspension. Mark Sanchez loves him, which is a huge factor. Since being taken in the first round three years ago, Keller has been compared to Indy’s Dallas Clark, and he’s not far off. Consider him a solid starting option despite the fact that he faces four top 15 passing defenses over the next four weeks.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos - While I was watching the Denver-Seattle game this past Sunday, I saw #88 come onto the field during the two minute drill before the end of the first half, and for those of you who didn’t watch the game, take my word for it, Kyle Orton ONLY looked “Bay Bay’s” way. Drawing coverage from Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings, the 6′3″ rookie hauled in eight of his nine targets for 97 yards and a score. I’m confident saying he not only resembles his predecessor Brandon Marshall, but he looks a lot like another former Georgia Tech WR, nicknamed Megatron. If he’s available in your seasonal league, snag him immediately. If you’re a Thomas dynasty owner, you have a gem.

Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots - The rookie may not be roster worthy in seasonal leagues just yet, but PPR owners take note, he’s an eventual every-week fantasy starter. In the Patriots’ attack, he’s been lining up as a receiver often, and has already earned the trust of Tom Brady, catching a 45-yard pass in Week 1, and hauling in six balls for 101 yards in Week 2 against the Jets. We’re taking a stance now: He will prove to be the more fantasy-worthy of the Pats’ two rookie TEs.

Devin Hester, WR, Bears - After being blanketed by the Lions’ defense in Week 1, Hester had a coming out party in Week 2, catching four balls for 77 yards and a score. And if you saw the TD catch in the corner of the end zone from Jay Cutler, you’ll agree that Hester has improved immensely as a wide receiver. Even with the Bears spreading the targets around, Hester will clearly be among their top two pass catchers each week. Count on him as a WR3 with upside moving forward.

Donald Brown, RB, Colts – Let’s face it, when the Colts commit to the run, they can truly pound the rock. Brown, a second-year former first rounder from UConn, had probably the best game of his pro career in Week 2 against the Giants, rushing 16 times for 69 yards and a TD. Look for him to continue to eat into Joseph Addai's carries, and eventually become the Colts’ featured back.

FALLING

Jerome Harrison, RB, Browns - A week after complaining about getting only nine carries against Tampa Bay, Harrison toted the rock 16 times against the Chiefs, but gained only 33 yards. He has lost goal line duties to Peyton Hillis, and does not appear to have the trust of the coaching staff at all. Though three weeks ago he looked like a lock to be a fantasy stud after Montario Hardesty blew out his knee, he’s now a shaky fantasy play at best.

Vince Young, QB, Titans - Speaking of an up-and-down start to the season, Young’s first two weeks epitomizes it. After completing 13 of 17 passes for 154 yards and two scores, VY threw for only 66 yards and two picks on seven of 10 completions in Week 2. The fact that he was benched for Kerry Collins doesn’t bode well either. Even though he’s expected to keep his starting job in Week 3, it shows that Jeff Fisher is not afraid to pull him. Nothing is set in stone moving forward for Young.

Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders - Campbell’s numbers don’t look horrible, but he was pulled for Bruce Gradkowski in Week 2, who proceeded to lead the Raiders to a win over St. Louis. As a result of his benching, we would recommend dropping Campbell in all formats.

By Matt Schauf

RapidDraft.com

Here’s the thing about writing to a broad fantasy audience. There can be so much variation by league that it’s difficult to know what people know.

For instance, if you’re reading this and see a recommendation to pick up Tampa Bay rookie receiver Mike Williams off the waiver wire, you’ll probably think: “Yeah, thanks. Now how about someone that didn’t actually get picked in the middle of my draft.”

Well, as of Monday morning, the youngest of the NFL Mike Williamses can be found on rosters in less than 40 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Now, we all know that the broad, free audience of Yahoo! fantasy players includes very shallow leagues, plenty of newbies and a fair number of teams that never get touched after August (if that late). Nevertheless, there are some out there who can find Williams freely available after he has grabbed touchdowns in each of his first two pro outings. If you happen to be one of those people, get to grabbing. If you aren’t, just remember to frame player values by the particulars of your league and scoring system. On to some other guys worth claiming this week …

Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay

Why not move next to the guy getting Williams the ball? Freeman hasn’t exactly faced a stifling pair of defenses in Cleveland and Carolina, but he has posted four touchdown passes versus just one interception. That beats the heck out of his 18 picks and 10 fumbles (just two lost) over the final nine games of last year and is particularly encouraging when you remember that Freeman was iffy for Week 1 after missing the exhibition slate with a thumb fracture. I liked Matt Moore before the season (he admits, ashamedly), but I’ve seen enough to swap him out for Freeman as a fantasy backup.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver

Unless you need a quarterback right now, your first target this week should be this Broncos rookie. In his first NFL regular-season game, Thomas saw four more targets than any of his teammates and finished with eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. Granted, Seattle tends to be a positive matchup, but there’s a reason Denver drafted this guy ahead of Dez Bryant. Agree with that decision or not (and I don’t), the pick was made because they really like Thomas. Whether he’s a top route runner or not, Thomas has terrific speed and size and brings playmaking ability that the team would be lacking without him. Thomas figures to be a bit inconsistent, but he also figures to be a central element of this passing game as long as he’s healthy – certainly more central than Brandon Lloyd, at least.

Dustin Keller, TE, N.Y. Jets

There was some talk before the season of Keller turning into Mark Sanchez’s “go-to guy” … whatever that means for an unreliable passer. Through two weeks, Keller has led the team or tied for the lead in targets twice, including Sunday’s seven-catch, 115-yard outing. If Brian Schottenheimer continues to let Sanchez actually throw passes beyond the line of scrimmage, we could see this connection continue to blossom after displaying some late flashes in 2009.

Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville

Lewis didn’t have nearly as good a day as Keller in Week 2, but his five receptions topped any one-week total he put up last season and follow a two-touchdown performance. Jaguars camp broke with predictions of a breakout season for Lewis, and he has done nothing to dispel such hopes in one of the league’s most maddeningly inconsistent offenses.

Earl Bennett, WR, Chicago

This recommendation isn’t so much because Bennett tied for the team lead with five catches at Dallas on Sunday. That’s not really a number worth getting excited about. At the same time, though, Devin Aromashodu saw nary a target against the Cowboys, and Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times said via Twitter after the game that Bennett appears to have passed Aromashodu on the depth chart. Bennett will need to do more before proving fantasy-start worthy, but it only helps him that he and Jay Cutler go all the way back to their college days at Vanderbilt. In an offense with no clear No. 1 wideout and an odd distaste for tight ends, it’s foreseeable that Bennett becomes Cutler’s safety blanket. At the least, he’s worth picking up in PPR leagues right now, just in case.

Mario Manningham, WR, N.Y. Giants

Four catches a game doesn’t sound exciting, but it’ll put you right around 60 by the end of the season. That’s what Manningham has done each of the first two weeks, despite Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks both being around and the Giants only playing from behind in one of those contests. Perhaps more encouraging, though, is that he has caught eight of 10 passes thrown his way so far. That small a sample doesn’t really tell us a whole lot, but even those small results can’t hurt a guy who displayed inconsistent hands last year. Combine this with his big-play upside (54-yard touchdown Sunday night) and the injury risk following Hakeem Nicks, and Manningham looks like a nice player to stash on fantasy benches in any format.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots

At some point every season, there gets to be a premium on ownable running backs and folks start blowing FAAB budgets on guys they didn’t even consider at draft time. (Just check out how much your leaguemate paid for Brandon Jackson last week.) That makes it worthwhile to try to get ahead of the curve if you have room on the roster, and the guy with infinite names could present some value later in the season. No one should get excited about the 19 yards Green-Ellis managed on 10 carries Sunday, but there also shouldn’t have been any fantasy owners starting him against the Jets. It’s worth noting, however, that his 10 attempts doubled the totals for Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk. It’s also worth noting that Green-Ellis tallied five touchdown runs just two years ago amid 74 carries. That’s at least some goal-line back precedent.

Faulk and Taylor remain closer to usable in fantasy going forward, but consider Green-Ellis a buy-low option who can be easily dropped again if you need the roster spot.

By Paul Hickey

NoOffseason.com

Finally we can stop speculating. Finally, we have some current, real life data to play with. Now, it's easy to jump to unwarranted conclusions after Week 1, as anomalies do certainly occur, but we are confident in the following predictions. In a column that probably could have gone on forever, heading into Week 2, we have chosen only the cream of the crop risers, and the unfortunate but true fallers.

RISING

Arian Foster, RB, Texans

Are you kidding me? 231 yards and three TDs against the Colts in Week 1 makes Foster the fantasy player of the week by a landslide. If you started him in a basic seasonal league, there's a good chance he won your matchup for you single handedly. The scary thing is that the Texans didn’t even really need to use their incredibly potent passing attack. While the yards may not be there every week, the touchdowns will. Look for Foster to continue to play at a high level again next week against the Redskins.

Austin Collie, WR, Colts

Perhaps one of my best calls was telling fantasy owners honestly that the second year man from BYU is a better fantasy option than Pierre Garçon. Even after his 10-catch, 131-yard, TD performance against the Texans in Week 1 you may think I'm crazy, but in PPR leagues, Collie is a must-own and a borderline must-start. With Peyton Manning not seeing much time to throw due to a banged up offensive line, he'll continue to look Collie’s way often. Collie proved to be the more efficient receiver, catching 10 of 11 targets, as Garçon contributed a few key drops against the Texans. The Colts host the Giants in Week 2, and Collie is a solid WR3 in PPR formats. On top of all of this, Anthony Gonzalez went down with an ankle injury in Week 1, which means Collie is further cemented in as the Colts primary slot receiver.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants

Week 1 began to confirm that the 2009 first round pick truly is the Giants number 1 receiver, as he hauled in four balls for 75 yards and three TDs, looking a lot like Randy Moss —unstoppable against one-on-one coverage. After this performance, he should be an automatic start moving forward.

Wes Welker, WR Patriots

Well, any doubts about just how healthy Welker was heading into Week 1 have been completely erased after his eight-catch, 64-yard, two-TD performance against the Bengals. After most fantasy players underrated him due to health concerns, there's no reason to leave him on your bench moving forward.

Jordan Shipley, WR, Bengals

The third round slot receiver from Texas recorded five catches for 82 yards in his first ever NFL game. Even though the Bengals don't figure to be down by nearly 30 points heading into the second half most weeks, it's still impressive that Shipley was this involved in the Bengals game plan. Dynasty owners should consider him a potential Wes Welker/Austin Collie in 2011 after Terrell Owens' contractual obligation is up.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears

Any doubts about Forte "being a Mike Martz guy" can be thrown out the window, as screen passes to him were a crucial component of the Bears offense against the Lions in Week 1. The third year RB caught seven balls for 151 yards and two scores, while also adding 50 on the ground. It looks like he's well on his way to being Chicago's leading receiver, and a must start RB2 in all leagues.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks

The 34 year old looked rejuvenated, throwing for 170 yards and two scores and rushing for another. The Seahawks also happen to face the Denver Broncos’pass defense in Week 2, followed by the Chargers and Rams —all three of whom don't necessarily have the best passing defenses in the league. As long as he's healthy, consider Hass a solid fantasy play.

Michael Vick, QB, Eagles

Well, the Kevin Kolb era didn't last long in Philly. Now, don't get me wrong, Andy Reid is still saying that Kolb is the starter when healthy. It's the "when healthy" part that concerns me. Kolb (concussion) isn't expected to practice until Friday, which really puts his Week 2 status in doubt, which is too bad, because the Eagles play the Lions, who have the worst secondary in the league. Then, there's the fact that Vick just flat out looked phenomenal at times against the Packers. He passed for 175 yards and a score, while rushing 11 times for 103 yards. I just have a feeling that it could be the Mike Vick show for a few more weeks in Philly. if you own Kolb, add Vick (without dropping Kolb).

Patrick Chung, SS, Patriots

Wow. The second rounder from Oregon really took advantage of his Week 1 start, racking up 12 solo tackles and four assisted. I'd say he more than solidified the starting gig moving forward, and the really scary thing is that he kind of looks like the next Rodney Harrison.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers

A guy I've written about more than a few times this offseason as a potential sleeper has just rocketed up waiver wire lists heading into Week 2. The 24-year-old fourth year former second rounder from Nebraska has looked good when filling in for Ryan Grant. Now he'll have a real opportunity with the starter out with an ankle in Week 2.

FALLING

Lions WRs

Unfortunately, with potential star QB Matthew Stafford suffering a shoulder injury in Week 1, it looks like Shaun Hill will be the team's QB for the near future, which doesn't bode well for receivers Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. Not that you should bench Megatron necessarily, but his ceiling will be much lower as long as Stafford is out.

By Matt Schauf

RapidDraft.com

The biggest mistake many fantasy owners make after Week 1 is to put aside all the observations and expectations they carried into the season and overrate what happened in the first set of real games.

I love to comb to free-agent market after the league has run through its first set of adds and drops to see which players have already been orphaned. That’s the biggest thing to watch for this week. One good or bad week doesn’t paint a full-season picture.

Of course, football also presents the shortest season, so Week 1 performances can’t be ignored either. Here are some little-owned guys worth grabbing if you have a spot. (Just don’t go cutting C.J. Spiller to create that spot.)

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars

He was twice a subject of my sleeper columns in this space and a solid fantasy performer before this season. Yet, Garrard ended Sunday night owned in just 23 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Three touchdown passes in the first week will change that in a hurry, and it’s not as if Garrard loaded up against a terrible defense. Last year, at least, Denver allowed the third fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This is obviously a new year, but the Broncos start the same secondary as they did in 2009. Garrard’s 76.2 percent completion rate made the performance look even better.

Mark Clayton, WR, Rams

One game certainly does not tell us the whole story on target distribution, but Clayton drew a team-high 16 looks in Sunday’s loss to Arizona less than a week after joining the team. Everyone’s numbers were inflated by the 55 pass attempts, which certainly won’t be the norm (or else we’ll be talking about Sam Bradford’s untimely death by Week 6), but Clayton led by any measure.

In just the first half, Clayton drew 10 targets, twice as many as any other Ram to that point. Add that to word that he and Bradford spent some off-season time practicing together, plus Laurent Robinson’s injury history (he left Sunday’s game at one point but returned), and Clayton should be picked up this week in any league of reasonable depth. That’s especially true in point-per-reception formats, which will downplay a likely lack of touchdowns. Clayton has been an inconsistent performer throughout his career, but his talent hasn’t been questioned.

Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars

Jacksonville’s No. 2 wideout was No. 1 on opening day, tallying twice as many receptions (six) as any teammate and drawing seven targets to Mike Sims-Walker’s two. Thomas didn’t snag any of Garrard’s three scoring passes, but the PPR value is obvious, and if he stays near this usage level, enough touchdowns (at least five or six) should come. According to FootballOutsiders.com, Thomas presented the league’s best catch rate last year among wide receivers with at least 30 receptions.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers

Consider this a prime argument for drafting a handcuff. Ryan Grant left Sunday’s victory at Philadelphia with a sprained ankle, which he says he doesn’t expect to keep him out in Week 2. Players say a lot of things, though, and we can’t always (ever?) trust them.

It’s impossible to know at this point whether Grant will be ready for next Sunday, and Jackson had already drawn praise from his coaches for a strong camp and preseason. He stepped in for 18 carries (63 yards) and a pair of receptions against the Eagles and would draw Buffalo in Week 2 if he fills in again. Even if Grant is able to go, can we trust the ankle to not be a problem again? Of course not. Give Jackson a shot where possible.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals

A second tight end isn’t for every league. If you don’t have a flex position (or at least one that includes tight ends) or have fairly shallow rosters, then you get one guy at the position and move on. Others, though, should take notice at the level of use for Gresham in his first game.

The rookie tight end was the third most targeted Bengal, getting 10 passes and catching six for 25 yards and a touchdown. Like with the Rams example above, the totals here are skewed by the 50 pass attempts for Carson Palmer in a game in which Cincinnati trailed big and quickly. Still, Gresham drew four targets through the first half compared with just two for Chad Ochocinco (eight for Terrell Owens) and caught the Bengals’ first touchdown pass of the year.

There’s no question about the talent or size on the guy who was drafted in the first round despite missing the 2009 season, so the only wonder is whether he can get the ball enough. Sunday provided encouragement on that front.

Wait and watch

Waiting back on potential breakout performers can leave one missing out, but that doesn’t mean you need to find a roster spot for everyone who had a good first week. Peyton Hillis, for example, scored Cleveland’s lone rushing touchdown against Tampa but also garnered just nine carries and fumbled twice. That workload matched Jerome Harrison’s, James Davis figures to factor in at some point and even Josh Cribbs’ three rushes should increase based on his 2009 carries and current role. Fumbling twice also doesn’t help a running back’s case, particularly for goal-line touches. Hillis shouldn’t be dropped by those who own him and may well have a strong season. Just don’t trip over your current backs trying to claim him.

Out in Denver, meanwhile, fantasy owners are looking for an answer at receiver. Eddie Royal is owned in most leagues, and those who took a late-round shot have to be pleased with his eight-catch opener. That was exactly the kind of game envisioned last year when he was going in Round 5 or 6. Keep in mind, though, that this one came against a Jacksonville defense that played horribly against the pass last year -- to the point that it’s probably not fair to say the Jags even played ”against” it. It’s too early to say that’ll be the case this year, too, but they’re guilty until proven innocent in this court. This is even more relevant when you find yourself getting excited about Brandon Lloyd’s 117 yards. We’ve seen this before from Lloyd, who went for 124 yards in a single week in 2008 and finished 2009 with a 95-yard effort. Through eight NFL seasons, though, he has never reached 50 catches. He has the talent but doesn’t deserve benefit of the doubt.

By Matt Schauf

RapidDraft.com

The biggest mistake many fantasy owners make after Week 1 is to put aside all the observations and expectations they carried into the season and overrate what happened in the first set of real games.