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Boise State

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#11 Boise State

Broncos

NATIONAL FORECAST

#11

MWC Mountain Division PREDICTION

#1

HEAD COACH: Chris Petersen, 84-8 (7 years) | OFF. COORDINATOR: Robert Prince | DEF. COORDINATOR: Pete Kwiatkowski

OFFENSE

Boise State has streamlined its offensive playbook to remove what coach Chris Petersen called “dead weight” accumulated during 12 seasons of Petersen as offensive coordinator (2001-05) or head coach (2006-12). The catalyst: A subpar offensive showing last season, when the Broncos averaged 30.2 points per game — the program’s worst output since 1998.

The tweaks should work, given the returning talent. The Broncos have a returning starter at quarterback, senior Joe Southwick, and retained four of last season’s top five rushers and six of the top eight receivers, statistically. The offensive line boasts All-Mountain West center Matt Paradis, third-year starting left tackle Charles Leno Jr. and veteran utility man Spencer Gerke, all seniors.

Sophomore tailback Jay Ajayi, a powerful runner who averaged 6.7 yards per carry as the backup last year, leads a young stable of running backs. Junior Matt Miller, who has 128 catches and 14 touchdowns in his first two seasons, tops a deep receiving corps that could get breakout seasons from senior Geraldo Boldewijn and sophomore Shane Williams-Rhodes. Sophomore tight end Holden Huff, who is 6'5", provides a mismatch over the middle.

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Boise State or Fresno State: Who Wins the Mountain West in 2013?

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DEFENSE

The Broncos have been so good on defense the past five seasons that’s it’s easy to assume the group will be terrific again in 2013. But that was the thought on the offensive side last year. Boise State lost three of its top four defensive tackles, all three starting linebackers and both starting cornerbacks. That exodus includes three All-Mountain West first-teamers.

Junior end Demarcus Lawrence could earn some All-America buzz. The former junior college transfer led the Mountain West with 9.5 sacks last season despite missing two games for a violation of team rules. He also was fifth on the team with 48 tackles and first with four forced fumbles. The other starting end was supposed to be Sam Ukwuachu, who had 4.5 sacks en route to Freshman All-America honors. However, he was dismissed from the team in early May. Senior returning starter Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe leads the tackle rotation.

Junior linebacker Blake Renaud, a hard-hitting 249 pounds, should clog the middle. He’s backed by two returning starters at safety, junior Jeremy Ioane and sophomore Darian Thompson.

Perhaps the biggest concern is at cornerback. Bryan Douglas tore an ACL last season and will have to work back into game shape during fall camp. The rest of the corners have joined the roster in the last year.

Key Player
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Joe Southwick, QB – Southwick made steady progress in his first year as a starter, throwing for 2,730 yards and 19 scores. Expect the senior to thrive in his second season under center.

Demarcus Lawrence, DE – Led Boise State’s defense with 9.5 sacks last season and will be counted on even more with the dismissal of Sam Ukwuachu.

Matt Miller, WR – Earned second-team All-Mountain West honors in 2012. Miller was Boise State’s leading receiver with 66 receptions and five touchdowns.

2013 Schedule

SPECIALISTS

The Broncos are looking for a kicker — again. Junior Dan Goodale, who missed the potential game-winner in 2011 vs. TCU, and sophomore transfer Tyler Rausa are competing. Senior punter Trevor Harman returns. But the most intriguing special teamer is Williams-Rhodes, the ultra-quick, 5'6", 158-pound receiver. He provided a key kickoff return in last year’s bowl win and likely will return punts, too.

FINAL ANALYSIS

The Broncos should be much improved on offense and experience some growing pains on defense — a reversal of last season. Depth could be an issue, particularly on defense.

The key to the season might be how they start. Six of the first eight games are against 2012 bowl teams — and four of those are on the road. The Broncos will compete in the new Mountain Division of the Mountain West, where up-and-coming Utah State and always-tricky Air Force are their top rivals.

As usual, an undefeated run and BCS berth seem possible. Petersen, in fact, has lost a combined total of two games in four seasons with a returning starter at quarterback. But the margin for error may be small with new players providing much of the depth and so many tests on the road.

 

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LSU

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#12 LSU

Tigers

NATIONAL FORECAST

#12

SEC West PREDICTION

#3

HEAD COACH: Les Miles, 85-21 (8 years) | OFF. COORDINATOR: Cam Cameron | DEF. COORDINATOR: John Chavis

OFFENSE

Zach Mettenberger is back for his second year as a starter after a junior season that was ushered in with huge expectations — perhaps too big — and wavered between disappointing, mediocre and effective. He wound up with 2,609 passing yards, but only 12 touchdowns against seven interceptions. New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has a reputation as a strong tutor of quarterbacks, and he could be a huge influence on Mettenberger in a season in which LSU needs its quarterback to be productive.

In the backfield, Jeremy Hill exploded as a go-to back midway through his freshman campaign and led the Tigers with 755 rushing yards. His status, however, is in doubt after he was arrested in late April after allegedly punching a man outside of a bar. If Hill is not available, LSU, as usual, has other quality options in the backfield. Alfred Blue and Kenny Hilliard both spent time as the lead back last season.

Receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry were special at times in 2012, but way too ordinary at others. They need to limit their drops and improve their route-running. Junior college transfer Quantavius Leslie could give LSU a home run threat.

The Tigers go into the season with four veterans up front, augmented by a host of promising newcomers. The one major hole is at center, where Elliott Porter takes over for three-year starter P.J. Lonergan. The right side seems fairly locked down, with Trai Turner and Vadal Alexander back at guard and tackle, respectively. 

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DEFENSE

The rebuilding of the defense begins up front, although this isn’t exactly a starting-from-scratch project. In fact, the experienced players back — Jermauria Rasco, Anthony Johnson, Ego Ferguson and Danielle Hunter — may be more athletic and potentially more explosive in terms of generating a pass rush than the recently departed group.

No player was more valuable to the LSU defense in 2012 than departed linebacker Kevin Minter, who more or less took away the middle of the field. A talented six-man 2012 linebacker recruiting class helps fill the gaps along with one of the state’s best prep players, Kendell Beckwith. Senior Lamin Barrow should also be an anchor after he played a strong second fiddle to Minter with 104 tackles.

There will be some new faces in some prominent roles in the secondary. Cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Jalen Collins were forced into action as true freshmen last fall and showed flashes of a bright future. But both also have to get better across the board for the secondary to improve after a late-season fade cost the Tigers wins against Alabama and Clemson. The safety spots seem to be in good hands, with senior Craig Loston — if he can stay healthy — and junior Ronald Martin.

Key Player
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Zach Mettenberger, QB – Showed signs of being an All-SEC-caliber quarterback at times and now has a new offensive coordinator to help him find consistency.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR – The Tigers need Beckham to limit his drops and use his athleticism (16.6 ypc) to produce big plays.

La’el Collins, OL – Gives the Tigers a veteran to plug in at left tackle or one to keep at left guard if a younger lineman emerges. Either way, he is the anchor up front.

Lamin Barrow, LB – Overshadowed by Kevin Minter, but he was one of the stalwarts in a linebacker corps that helped camouflage some inexperience and youth in the secondary.

Anthony Johnson, DT – Blossomed as a sophomore as a run-stuffer and pass-rusher and comes back as LSU’s best and most experienced man on the front four.

2013 Schedule

SPECIALISTS

Yes, LSU even got stung by early departures in the kicking department when wacky but talented punter Brad Wing left for the NFL. But another strong-legged Australian, Jamie Keehn, showed his value in the bowl game when he averaged 44.6 yards per kick. The placekicking spot is up for grabs between junior James Hairston, who has kicked off the last few seasons, and walk-on Colby Delahoussaye. 

FINAL ANALYSIS

The Tigers were hit hard by early departures to the NFL, leaving only 10 starters returning in 2013. The cupboard isn’t bare for Les Miles, but the Tigers are behind Alabama and Texas A&M in the SEC West pecking order. LSU won’t abandon its run-first approach on offense, but Cameron, the new coordinator, is tasked with getting more production from Mettenberger. The defense has plenty of young talent and will get better as the season progresses. However, there will be an adjustment period with the departure of six key linemen, an All-SEC linebacker and two starters in the secondary.

 

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Getting LSU to a spot in the national championship will be even more challenging for Les Miles in 2013, as the Tigers lost a handful of key contributors on defense, and the offense is still a question mark.

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