Michigan State (+6.5) at Iowa
We’re just about halfway through the Big Ten season, and Michigan State, picked no higher than fifth by most media outlets, remains as the league’s only undefeated team. The Spartans have been one of the most consistently solid teams in the country through the first eight weeks; they aren’t great in any one area, but they don’t have many weaknesses, either. Iowa is coming off its first Big Ten loss, a 31–30 setback at home to Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes’ defense, considered one of the best in the country, has given up a total of 329 yards rushing the past two weeks. Slowing down MSU’s two-headed tailback monster of Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell will be the focus this Saturday. Iowa is too good to lose two straight at home.
Iowa 24, Michigan State 21

Missouri (+7.5) at Nebraska
These two Big 12 North clubs both responded in big spots Saturday. Missouri proved that its undefeated start and gaudy defensive stats weren’t a fluke by beating Oklahoma 36–27 in Columbia, while Nebraska bounced back from its loss at home to Texas by outlasting Oklahoma State, 51–41, in Stillwater. The key development for the Huskers was the play of quarterback Taylor Martinez. After basically getting shut out vs. Texas, Martinez was sensational against O-State, throwing for 323 yards (by far his career high) and five touchdowns while adding 112 yards on the ground. Nebraska will be very difficult to beat if Martinez can replicate those passing numbers.
Nebraska 30, Missouri 24

Florida (+2.5) vs. Georgia
It’s the first time the Florida-Georgia showdown hasn’t featured at least one ranked team since 1979. The Bulldogs, however, are playing their best football of the season of late, with consecutive victories over Tennessee (41–14), Vanderbilt (43–0) and Kentucky (44–31). Aaron Murray has been very good at quarterback, and Washaun Ealey is finally emerging as a big-time producer at tailback. Florida, on the other hand, doesn’t have many answers on the offensive side of the ball. The Gators have scored a total of four offensive touchdowns in their last three games — all losses (two at home). Urban Meyer vowed to fix his team’s problems in the bye week, but the Gators just don’t seem to have the right pieces in the right places.
Georgia 27, Florida 17

Auburn (-7) at Ole Miss
Auburn hits the road for just the third time this season, and the Tigers’ previous two trips produced wins by exactly three points, at Mississippi State and Kentucky. Ole Miss has been a difficult team to get a read on. The Rebels have already lost at home to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. The Commodores scored 28 points in Oxford, 18 more than their other three SEC games combined. Ole Miss, though, does have solid wins over Fresno State (55–38) and Kentucky (42–35). While it’s tempting to think upset in this game, don’t forget that the Ole Miss defense is giving up over 30 points per game. Expect another big day from Cam Newton.
Auburn 37, Ole Miss 28

Oregon (-6.5) at USC
USC is an underdog at home for the first time since the final game of the 2001 season against UCLA. The Trojans won that game, 27–0, but it won’t be quite as easy this week against Oregon, the No. 1 team in the nation in both the AP and coaches’ polls. The Ducks are deserving of their ranking, but keep in mind that this team has only one quality win (Stanford at home). The Ducks still have to play at California and at Oregon State and host Arizona, but this trip to USC might be their toughest test. USC already has two league losses, but this is still a talented team that has been playing very well on offense. Over the past two games, sophomore quarterback Matt Barkley has averaged 371 yards with a total of eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Oregon should remain undefeated, but it won’t be easy.
Oregon 38, USC 30

Kentucky (-6.5) at Mississippi State
Mississippi State has quietly won five straight games to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2007 and only the second time since 2000. The Bulldogs are getting it done with a run-first offense and a defense that is giving up only 17 points per game. Kentucky’s offense will be a challenge for Dan Mulllen’s club. The Wildcats have scored 31 points or more in each of their last four SEC games and have the league’s No. 2-ranked passing attack. Defense, however, is where the Cats have serious issues. In five conference games, they are allowing an average of 39.8 points. That will get you beat on most nights.
Mississippi State 30, Kentucky 23

California (+2.5) at Oregon State
Cal continues to be one of the most schizophrenic teams in the nation. In the last five weeks, the Bears have lost at Nevada by 21, lost at Arizona by 1, beaten UCLA by 28, lost at USC by 34 and beaten Arizona State by 33. The defense has held five of its seven opponents to 17 points or less but got lit up for 52 and 48 in the other two games. Good luck trying to figure out what is going to happen in Corvallis this weekend. Oregon State hit a speed bump two weeks ago, losing at Washington, 35–34, in double-overtime, but this is a team that has played very well in October and November under Mike Riley.
Oregon State 30, Cal 24

Baylor (-7) at Texas
The Baylor Bears are bowl-eligible for the first time since 1995 after improving to 6–2 with a 47–42 win over Kansas State. Led by the underrated Robert Griffin at quarterback, Baylor rolled up 683 yards of offense en route to its third Big 12 win of the season. Getting win No. 4 won’t be easy this week, despite Texas’ recent struggles. Baylor has lost 12 straight to Texas, and the average margin of defeat has been an astounding 37 points. Don’t count on a lopsided Texas victory this season. The Horns have lost three of their past four and have not scored more than 24 points in their five games vs. BCS conference opponents. After the latest loss (28–21 at home to Iowa State), Mack Brown threw both his players and assistant coaches under the bus, saying you “can’t trust your team, can’t trust your coaches when they’re not getting things ready to go.” The pressure will be on Texas this Saturday.
Texas 28, Baylor 20

Michigan (-3) at Penn State
It’s quite an indictment on Penn State that the Lions are a three-point underdog at home to a Michigan team that has lost eight of its last nine conference games dating back to last season. Penn State broke a two-game losing streak last week with a 33–21 win at Minnesota, but this is a team that struggles to put points on the board. Prior to the win at Minnesota, the Nittany Lions’ season-high against FBS competition was 24 points vs. Kent State in Week 3. And with uncertainty at quarterback — it looks like Matt McGloin will get the start — it’s hard to envision PSU scoring enough points to beat Denard Robinson and the Wolverines.
Michigan 33, Penn State 24

Florida State (-3.5) at NC State (Thu)
NC State has had a week off to recover from its crushing overtime loss at East Carolina. The Pack are clearly an improved team in 2010, but if you want to take the next step as a program you have to beat East Carolina, even on the road. That loss, however, did not hurt the Pack’s standing in the ACC Atlantic Division race, where they are one game behind Florida State in the loss column. A loss Thursday night would all but end NC State’s title hopes. The Seminoles were a bit sluggish in their last game — a 24–19 win at home over Boston College — but they had been playing very well leading up to that game. This one is tough to call; let’s go with the Pack in the mild upset.
NC State 34, Florida State 30

Last week: 6–4 overall (5–5 against the spread)
Season: 52–28 overall (39–37–4 against the spread)
 

Lattimore will be back on the field this Saturday.

Tennessee (2–5, 0–4) at No. 17 South Carolina (5–2, 3–2), 12:21 p.m. CT
TV: SEC Network

Holy role reversal. Typically, it’s Tennessee hanging around in the SEC race and South Carolina treading water (OK, maybe not this badly). But it’s at least rare — in fact it hasn’t happened — that the Volunteers are the easiest conference opponent for the division-leading Gamecocks.

Tennessee has managed to hang around for some first halves this season against good teams, like last week against Alabama and Oregon earlier in the year, but you’ve got to figure they’ll eventually run out of steam for even that. Maybe now? Injuries and suspensions have really stripped down this team to Derek Dooley’s Comedy Tour. You almost want the presumed blowout to be worse, just to see what Dooley says next.

The Vols couldn’t cover Julio Jones (221 yards) last week. They will not be able to cover Alshon Jeffery (121.1 yards a game), either. That’s not even taking into account South Carolina’s emerging run game, with Marcus Lattimore (89.7 ypg) back from a gimpy ankle.

Player to Watch: Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina RB. Almost like a midseason breather last week for Lattimore. Expect him to come back strong.

Florida (4–3, 2–3) vs. Georgia (4–4, 3–3), 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Any other season, and neither of these teams would be in the East mix at this point. But, then again, they’re the teams who have won all but two of the division titles this decade. So, we’re just not accustomed to this mediocrity from the division, as a whole.

But, in reality, this is an East Division elimination game. Georgia has won three in a row; Florida has lost three straight. The Gators, as you know, have dominated this series in recent years. What gives in this one?

Seven games it, it seems apparent that Florida’s offense will simply not click this season. We’ve given up on it. Given the personnel and stubborn coaching philosophy, it will never get going. And, as most expected, Georgia’s defense has settled in pretty nicely with that 3-4. Linebacker Justin Houston is putting together an all-SEC season without much fanfare.

Aaron Murray, A.J. Green and Washaun Ealey? Georgia just has more weaponry than Florida. Been a long time since you could say that. Like, since the 1980s?

Player to Watch: Chris Rainey, Florida RB/WR. Is he really going to play? If he does, will he make a difference?

No. 3 Auburn (8–0, 5–0) at Ole Miss (3–4, 1–3), 5 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN2

The key there is the word “at.” See how Auburn is to the left of that word? That means it’s playing a rare away game. The Tigers — now the new No. 1 in the BCS — play only four games away from Jordan-Hare. This week’s game at Ole Miss is the third (Alabama is the fourth). The first two? Three-point wins at Mississippi State and Kentucky.

As you see, it hasn’t been easy. Then again, many of Auburn’s games, even the home ones, haven’t been easy. Ole Miss could test the Tigers, but the Rebels don’t have enough ammo for four quarters. And, true to every week’s outlook, Ole Miss has no one to stop Cameron Newton. He’ll do to the Rebs what he’s done to everyone, taking over the game late.

Player to Watch: Cam Newton, Auburn QB. Why not?

Kentucky (4–4, 1–4) at No. 23 Mississippi State (6–2, 2–2), 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPNU

Remember when people thought Kentucky was a legitimate division contender? Oh, right, that was last week. At 1–4, Joker Phillips has acknowledged the Wildcats are now interested in the best available bowl. That’ll first require two more victories. Charleston Southern is one. Vanderbilt is a definite possibility for two. How much would Kentucky like to beat Spurrier and Tennessee in one season?

A bowl game is on Mississippi State’s mind, as well. The Bulldogs would love to go to one in Dan Mullen’s second year after narrowly missing one a season ago. And they will after getting past a Kentucky team that has no defense and is still missing Derrick Locke.

Player to Watch: Derrick Locke, Kentucky RB. Point blank: Locke (shoulder) has to play for the Wildcats to have a chance. But that doesn’t seem likely.

Vanderbilt (2–5, 1–3) at No. 19 Arkansas (5–2, 2–2), 6 p.m. CT
TV: FSN

Sort of like South Carolina with Lattimore a week ago, Arkansas will likely be careful this week with a couple of its most important offensive players, receivers Greg Childs and Joe Adams. Both have ankle injuries, like Lattimore. The Razorbacks can get by without their top two receivers against Vandy.

The Hogs would love for Ryan Mallett, who’s nursing a bruised shoulder himself, to get a chance to watch some in the second half. This has been a physically taxing season already for Mallett, who needs to be healthy for the tests ahead, against South Carolina, Mississippi State and LSU.

Player to Watch: Knile Davis, Arkansas RB. Davis and the run game got going a week ago against Ole Miss (176 yards, three TDs). Could be a similar story this week.

There should plenty of offense in Bloomington.

Northwestern at Indiana, Saturday, 11 a.m. CT

It’s likely the Wildcats are still licking their wounds from last week’s second-half letdown against Michigan State. An upset and all-important sixth victory slipped through their grasp. Funny, last year when the Wildcats and Hoosiers met it was Indiana that blew a big second half lead and lost on a last-second field goal, 29–28. Coach Pat Fitzgerald is a master at getting his guys to maintain focus, and he should be able to rally the Wildcats for this one. Indiana has its own reason for motivation: A look ahead on the Hoosiers schedule suggests their best chances to win the two games they need for a bowl berth are this one and Purdue in the finale. To win, Indiana must take better care of the football than it did in last week’s loss (five turnovers). One key stat that is in Indiana’s favor: The Wildcats rank 10th in pass defense. Ben Chappell and Indiana’s terrific trio of receivers will be dreaming about that fact this week.

Purdue at Illinois, Saturday, 11 a.m. CT

Purdue has already lost one quarterback, so it was good news this week when the coaching staff announced Rob Henry would probably play after slicing up his throwing hand in last week’s loss. Henry hasn’t been the most efficient passer in the Big Ten this year, but he has his moments, and his versatility as a runner makes him a tough assignment for opposing defenses. Of course, Illinois has its own dual threat player under center. Nathan Scheelhasse is making a strong pitch for freshman of the year honors, and he just might have his way against a Boilermaker defense giving up 24.4 points per game. It’ll be important for Ryan Kerrigan and the Purdue defense to keep Scheelhasse in check. Speaking of defenses, is there a more under-rated unit in the Big Ten than the Illini? The unit ranks fourth in sacks in third in scoring defense. That’s bad news for a Purdue squad that has managed just 32 points total in its three road contests this year.

Michigan State at Iowa, Saturday, 2:30 p.m. CT

The Big Ten’s best game once again features Iowa, which lost at home last week due to poor clock management. Kirk Ferentz won’t let that happen again, not with his team’s January bowl hopes hanging by a thread. The key matchup in this one pits Spartan backs Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker against an Iowa run defense allowing just 92.1 yards per game. A total of five points has determined the last two games between the two teams — both played in East Lansing — and the last game in Iowa City was decided in overtime. Yep, this one is going to be a dandy. Too bad for Michigan State they may be without one of their best playmakers; receiver/returner Keshawn Martin is recovering from an ankle/foot injury that could keep him on the sideline.

Ohio State at Minnesota, Saturday, 7 p.m. CT

Another prime time game to showcase TCF Bank Stadium, another easy Big Ten test for the Buckeyes. Ohio State played with a chip on its shoulder in last week’s shutout of Purdue, and probably figures it has nothing to lose in its remaining games. Terrell Pryor’s arm should have success against a Gopher secondary allowing opposing passers a 69.5 completion percentage. Minnesota will need a mighty effort from its experienced passer, Adam Weber, because heaven knows the running game will have to be abandoned before half — at least if this game resembles recent ones in the series. Over the last four years Ohio State has beaten Minnesota by a combined score of 146 to 35, the closest margin being 13 points (two years ago).

Michigan at Penn State, Saturday, 7 p.m. CT

Pay no attention to the Nittany Lions’ woes this season — no team wishes to play in Beaver Stadium in an evening affair, and certainly not a Michigan squad that has dropped its last two contests by a combined 27 points. The Wolverines need to get back to the ground attack that earned them early favor among pollsters. For whatever reason, Denard Robinson has not been as dazzling — or as hard to catch — in recent weeks as he was at the season’s start. Penn State’s run defense could be a cure, as the unit is allowing an uncharacteristic 143.9 yards on the ground per game. The Nittany Lions offense has more problems than Michigan does on both sides of the ball combined. Evan Royster is still a no-show, and the unit has produced just seven scores through the air. Making matters worse, Penn State probably won’t have quarterback Rob Bolden in the lineup due to what has been labeled a head injury. The team must hope its rowdy crowd can offer the spark that’s been absent all season.