COMMENTS

College Football Stats: A Closer Look

COMMENTS

CFB Fantasy: Week 10 Start or Sit

Stanzi has been excellent of late. And look to the SEC for QB help this week.

Each week, Athlon will take a deeper look at the fantasy matchups that affect your lineup. Some players will deserve a second look from managers, while others could create some concern. Check out Athlon's College Fantasy Start or Sit for Week 10:

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QB — Deserves A Second Look

Ricky Stanzi, Iowa (@ Indiana)

The Hawkeye quarterback is very quietly having an excellent season. He has curtailed the turnovers and has thrown at least one TD in 15 straight games. Recently, though, he has taken it to a new level. He has thrown three touchdowns passes in five of his last six contests. With the talent at receiver to work with, Stanzi is an excellent play this weekend.

Aaron Murray, Georgia (Idaho State)

In only his first season in college football, Murray has thrown for at least 220 yards in six of nine starts (and six of his last seven). And prior to last weekend, he had only three INTs (the Gators will do it to most QBs). Against lowly Idaho State, Murray should have a decent shot at 250-2. The emergence (finally) of Orson Charles, his high school teammate, should help for the rest of the season.

Mike Hartline, Kentucky (Charleston Southern)

Much like Stanzi, Hartline has transformed himself from game manager to legitimate fantasy option. He has topped the 300-yard mark in three of his last five games and has 10 TD tosses in his last three. Charleston Southern should offer plenty of fantasy opportunities.

Tyler Bray, Tennessee (@ Memphis)

Are we beginning to see a theme in the SEC? Bray, in his first career start, actually has a chance to succeed in the fantasy world. He rallied the Vols on the road against South Carolina (albeit coming up short) and finished with 159 yards and 2 TDs in roughly one half of action. Against a Memphis team that has allowed no fewer than 41 points four weeks in a row, Bray should be able to excel — especially with the emergence of Denarius Moore, Luke Stocker and Da'Rick Rogers.

Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois (@ Michigan)

The Illini quarterback is changing from a fun freshman to watch into a relevant fantasy starting option. Over his last two games, Scheelhaase has six TDs and 163 yards rushing. The Wolverines defense just allowed Matt McGloin to throw for 250 yards and Evan Royster to rush 150 yards. Most Illini are solid options this weekend.

Austyn Carta-Samuels, Wyoming (@ New Mexico)

After a monster first weekend, ACS, in his second season, has turned into a fantasy bust. But he showed signs of life last weekend when he threw for 186 yards and 3 TDs while adding 51 yards rushing and another trip to paydirt on the ground. If you know anything about fantasy, it's play those who are playing the Lobos. They rank 118th in total defense, 119th in scoring defense, and Carta-Samuels posted a tidy 232-3 passing line with 54 yards rushing last season against New Mexico.

QB — Better Think Twice

Andy Dalton vs. Jordan Wynn (TCU @ Utah)

These are two of the top six defenses in the nation, and TCU boasts the country's best scoring and total defense. The last time these two hooked up in Salt Lake City, they combined for a total of 23 points. Dalton, as only a sophomore, threw for 251 yards, no scores and two INTs. Brian Johnson was the hero that night, and I do not expect Wynn to be able to replicate that performance.

Taylor Potts, Texas Tech (Missouri)

It finally appears the Red Raider quarterback pendulum has swung away from Potts. He has averaged less than 15 total fantasy points over his last three contests — two of which were losses. Expect Steven Sheffield to get a look at some point, so Potts is not worth starting against the Big 12's No. 1 total defense.

Dan Persa, Northwestern (@ Penn State)

The Nittany Lions are surprisingly stingy against the pass. They are allowing less than 190 yards per game through the air, and Northwestern has not proven that it can run the ball consistently. Yes, Persa is the entire offense and has been incredibly efficient, but expect a line similar to that of last year's match-up. Persa and Mike Kafka, who was knocked out of the game, combined for 243 yards and no scores.

Ben Chappell, Indiana (@ Iowa)

Despite throwing the ball 102 times over the last two weeks, Chappell has managed only two TDs (and less than 600 yards). He has also thrown four INTs over that span, and Iowa made Kirk Cousins look bad last week. Chappell posted a middling 227-2-3 line last season against Iowa. Don't expect him to match even that modest output this season.

Christian Ponder, Florida State (North Carolina)

Ponder really has not been consistent enough to be fantasy starter this season. But he is on this list just in case anyone out there was fooled by his 23.94 TFP performance last weekend or his 395-3 line against the Heels last fall. He has not topped 200 yards passing since Week 4 against Wake Forest, and UNC is giving up a measly 189 yards passing per game.

RB — Deserves A Second Look

Jarred Hassin, Army (Air Force)

Playing an Army running back will always be risky, but Hassin has delivered three weeks in a row in a big way. He has topped 100 yards and scored in all three while getting 18.3 carries per game over that span. To top it off, he has also added some receiving production with six catches for 98 yards as well. Now, there may only be a dozen pass attempts in the game between two option attacks, so that could bode very well for the runners. And Hassin looks to be the go-to guy for Army. The Falcons, by the way, rank 109th against the run this season at over 205 ypg.

J.J. Di Luigi, BYU (UNLV)

Di Luigi has been a solid and relatively consistent play all season. But there hasn't been much upside — his single game high is 23.2 TFP, but he has been below 14.4 TPF only once. He has offered plenty of value as a receiver when he does not get it done on the ground as his 33 receptions and 318 yards indicate. UNLV has allowed no fewer than 43 points in four straight games and ranks 118th against the run and 113th in scoring defense.

Tauren Poole, Tennessee (@ Memphis)

The Vols tailback has been up and down this season — 19 TPF three times and 7 TFP or less three times. But against Memphis, he is almost a lock for a big game. Interestingly, Poole has posted some solid numbers against the best of competition — 109 yards and a TD against LSU, 117 yards and a TD against Bama and 162 yards and a TD against Oregon. If he can do that against those defenses, the 100th-rated (195 ypg) rush defense should be no problem.

Keith Payne, Virginia (@ Duke)

The big fella is starting to prove very useful on the fantasy gridiron. He has scored in four straight, including three multiple touchdown games. His size makes him an ideal goalline back, but he has been getting the carries all over the field as well — 67 attempts over the last four to be exact. While Payne does not put up huge yardage totals, he does reach paydirt, so the 103rd-rated rush defense (196 ypg) of Duke should prove to be a juicy fantasy match-up.

Rodney Stewart, Colorado (@ Kansas)

The Buffs back hasn't always delivered this fall, but he definitely gets the football. He has 69 carries over his last three and against the 112th-rated rush defense (210 ypg), owners can expect a healthy dose of Mr. Stewart. And in conference play, the Jayhawks are allowing an absurd 46.8 points per game.

Robbie Rouse vs. Lennon Creer (Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State)

Rouse has been a disappointment this fall, but he has exploded over the last two games. His lines of 150-2 and 116-2 gave him back-to-back 27 TFP games. Creer is on his own little roll as well. He has games of 24.5, 29.4 and 32.5 TFP over his last three. With Rouse rested after a bye week and Creer at home, both these backs should be in your line-up. Both rush defenses are allowing around 155 yards per game on the ground.

Edwin Baker, Michigan State (Minnesota)

It is hard to trust a running back who has not topped 10 carries in three straight games. But this match-up is different. Expect the Spartans to be steaming after the poor showing last weekend against the Hawkeyes, and they will take out their frustrations on the Gophers. Expect a very heavy dose of Baker, Bell and Caper this weekend.

RB — Better Think Twice

Chris Polk, Washington (@ Oregon)

Without Jake Locker this weekend it might be smart to stay away from all Huskies. Did I mention they are playing the No. 1 team in the nation on the road? How about that Polk had 17 yards rushing last weekend with zero receptions? This is a no-brainer.

Roy Helu, Nebraska (@ Iowa State)

The Nebraska tailback has scored 131.6 TFP this season. He got 50.6 of those last weekend on what essentially was three carries. Iowa State is a solid matchup for Helu, but Rex Burkhead is still in the mix, and I want to see him do it consistently before I auto-plug him into the line-up. Keep in mind he has four games this fall in which he failed to top 60 yards rushing and six games in which he failed to top 12 carries.

Keola Antolin and Stepfan Taylor, (Arizona @ Stanford)

This has quarterback battle written all over it. Arizona has been stingy against the run this fall, ranking sixth nationally at 88 yards allowed per game on the ground. The Cardinal have been easier to run on, but 131 ypg is not all that great either. Also keep in mind that Nic Grigsby and Greg Nwoko are still in the mix — the two have posted 14 combined carries in three straight games.

Mark Ingram and Steven Ridley (Alabama @ LSU)

Ingram has been pretty quiet over the last month. Two fantasy games of less than 9 TFP against South Carolina and Ole Miss are a bit concerning. He bounced back with a pair of scores last weekend agianst Tennessee, but LSU the Vols are not. Ingram did get to 144 yards last season against LSU but was held out of the end zone. Ridley, after a very strong first half, has slowed a bit as well. Games of 8.3 and 3.7 TFP over the last three contests (with a 16.6-pointer against McNeese State mixed in) means that teams have caught up with the Tiger tailback. The gut tells me it will be tough sledding for both with Ingram sitting much closer to my starting line-up than Ridley.

Cyrus Gray, Texas A&M (Oklahoma)

Gray has been hot of late after taking over the starting roll when Christine Michael got hurt. But solid games against Kansas and Texas Tech (as well as Louisiana Tech and FIU) are not enough for me to put Gray in the line-up against Oklahoma — even an OU defense that has struggled. Last fall in a 65-10 rout, the Sooners held A&M to 59 yards rushing on 36 carries. Certainly, I expect a better output this year, but I am still taking a wait-and-see approach to Aggie rusher.

Evan Royster, Penn State (Northwestern)

Much like Helu and Gray, a wait-and-see approach might be best with Royster. The PSU tailback has been under 65 yards rushing in all but two games this fall and has scored only four times. He also has less than 12 carries in all but two games as well. The Wildcats are solid against the run, 35th nationally at only 126 ypg, so until Royster (and the offensive line) proves he can be more consistent, I am staying away from the Nittany Lions' all-time leading rusher.

Matt Asiata, Eddie Wide vs. Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker (TCU @ Utah)

See Andy Dalton vs. Jordan Wynn above.

WR — Waiver Wire Spot Starts

Mark Dell or B.J. Cunningham, Michigan State (Minnesota)
Combined for 25.4 TFP last week in brutal match-up against Iowa.

Denarius Moore, Tennessee (@ Memphis)
Huge 6-228-1 last week against South Carolina last week, and Memphis is really bad on D.

Keenan Allen, Cal (@ Washington State)
Great matchup. If not for a fumble he would have four straight 11+ point efforts.

Ryan Swope, Texas A&M (Oklahoma)
Posted 16 catches, 175 yards and a TD in last two while OU has secondary issues.

Kris Burd, Virginia (@ Duke)
Caught 7 passes for 104 last week against Miami. Duke is a great matchup.

Jared Karstetter, Washington State (Cal)
Bears are pathetic on the road, and he has 26 rec., 279 yds, 2 TDs over last four.

Top 10 DEF/ST Week 10 Spot Starts

1. Kentucky (Charleston Southern)
2. Florida State (North Carolina)
3. Syraucse (Louisville)
4. Temple (@ Kent State)
5. Ohio (Buffalo)
6. Tennessee (@ Memphis)
7. Boston College (@ Wake Forest)
8. Auburn (Chattanooga)
9. Wisconsin (@ Purdue)
10. Miami, Fla. (Maryland)

COMMENTS

Big Ten Preview: Wk 10

Northwestern (6-2, 2-2) at Penn State (5-3, 2-2), Saturday, 2:30 p.m. CT

Fans around University Park are ready to celebrate Joe Paterno’s 400th victory, but before anyone can pop champagne the Nittany Lions must take care of a Wildcats team that is 4–0 on the road this season. Another note to add: Three of those four wins came by three or fewer points. Northwestern continues to rely heavily on Dan Persa, the Big Ten leader in completion percentage (74.4). The only extensive action Persa saw last season came against Penn State. Persa wasn’t bad (14-of-23 for 115 yards and 42 rushing yards); the Wildcats, as a team, did not fare as well in the 34–13 loss. Penn State has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards per game this season, but the club has faced few passing systems as good as this one. On the opposite sideline, the Nittany Lions hope to continue the momentum they got going on the ground last week. Evan Royster ran for hard-fought yards against Michigan to pick up just his second 100-yard game of the year. Quarterback Matt McGloin also performed well in his debut last week, and assuming he is back in the lineup, the sophomore should be able to exploit a Wildcat secondary allowing 244.8 yards per game.

Iowa (6-2, 3-1) at Indiana (4-4, 0-4), Saturday, 11 a.m. CT

It’s been three years since the Hoosiers last beat the Hawkeyes. That was a much different Indiana team, however, with an offensive weapon (Kellen Lewis) that this year’s club simply does not have on its roster. And what worked for Indiana at the start of this season (passing the football) has not gotten the job done in recent weeks. This week, Ben Chappell and his receivers will really have their work cut out against Iowa’s street-smart secondary. The Hawkeyes’ veteran unit ranks fifth in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per contest but has given up the second-fewest passing scores (eight). And Iowa’s offense is operating as well as it has in years. Ricky Stanzi has the Big Ten’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio (19 to 2), and the running game is still clicking despite its lack of depth. All of this is bad news for an Indiana club allowing 384.1 yards and almost 30 points per contest. Very bad news.

Minnesota (1-8, 0-5) at Michigan State (8-1, 4-1), Saturday, 11 a.m. CT

This contest is the perfect medicine for Michigan State a week after it failed to show in Iowa City. The Gophers present little challenge, and their awful run defense (11th in the Big Ten) should help the Spartans rediscover a ground game that went missing near the middle of October. Michigan State has averaged 76.3 rushing yards over the last three games; without a balanced offense, this club has no shot at a BCS berth. For Minnesota, this game is one more act of torture before this long and grueling season comes to an end. The team has now lost eight straight, and the remaining three contests do not look promising. As of late, the road has not been kind to Gopher fans (18-point loss to Wisconsin, 11-point loss to Purdue), so keeping this game competitive is step number one. To do so, Minnesota must somehow mask a secondary that has allowed a Big Ten-worst 17 touchdowns so far. Another thing that could hurt Minnesota in this contest is punting; the Gophers average a pathetic 34.6 yards per punt, while Michigan State leads the conference in punt returns.

Illinois (5-3, 3-2) at Michigan (5-3, 1-3), Saturday, 11 a.m. CT

This is another dangerous game for a Rich Rodriguez club already reeling from three straight losses. The Illini are fresh off back-to-back 40-point efforts and possess one of the Big Ten’s best run defenses. In its visit to Beaver Stadium a few weeks ago, Illinois held a 16-minute advantage in time of possession and limited Penn State to 65 yards on the ground. That’s Big Ten football. Now they must duplicate that feat against a club that cannot escape the fact that it is one-dimensional. Outside of Kevin Korger’s 60-yard touchdown reception last week, no Michigan player besides Denard Robinson had more than 36 yards of offense. But even with Robinson accounting for nearly 400 yards of total offense last week, the Wolverines were unable to keep pace. Illinois has a few offensive woes of its own to sort out. Mikel Leshoure has failed to reach the 90-yard mark in four of the last five games, and last week gained just 1.5 yards per carry against a so-so Boilermaker unit. Leshoure must match his totals from last year’s game against Michigan (21 carries for 150 yards) for the Illini to pick up a third straight win in this series.

Wisconsin (7-1, 3-1) at Purdue (4-4, 2-2), Saturday, 11 a.m. CT

Bret Bielema preaches about his team carrying a 1–0 philosophy into each and every week; now that mentality will be put to the test. The Badgers are ranked higher than any other Big Ten school at present, and face tremendous pressure in the month of November. They’ll be expected to win every game, and if Bielema’s teams have struggled with anything during his tenure it’s been handling the role of favorite. Purdue is not as bad as it appears on paper and is still alive in the bowl hunt (the Boilermakers need to win two of four). Wisconsin must come out of the gate as it did against Ohio State and Iowa and pound the football until Purdue relents. If Wisconsin holds back, it will become vulnerable to the upset. The Boilermakers must find a way to penetrate Wisconsin’s over-achieving, fourth-ranked defense. Both facets of the offense have failed to put a consistent product on the field as of late (52 rushing yards last week, 88 passing yards the week prior), and nothing short of a perfect performance will be needed against the No. 7 ranked Badgers.

Northwestern (6-2, 2-2) at Penn State (5-3, 2-2), Saturday, 2:30 p.m. CT

Fans around University Park are ready to celebrate Joe Paterno’s 400th victory, but before anyone can pop champagne the Nittany Lions must take care of a Wildcats team that is 4–0 on the road this season. Another note to add: Three of those four wins came by three or fewer points. Northwestern continues to rely heavily on Dan Persa, the Big Ten leader in completion percentage (74.4). The only extensive action Persa saw last season came against Penn State. Persa wasn’t bad (14-of-23 for 115 yards and 42 rushing yards); the Wildcats, as a team, did not fare as well in the 34–13 loss. Penn State has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards per game this season, but the club has faced few passing systems as good as this one. On the opposite sideline, the Nittany Lions hope to continue the momentum they got going on the ground last week. Evan Royster ran for hard-fought yards against Michigan to pick up just his second 100-yard game of the year. Quarterback Matt McGloin also performed well in his debut last week, and assuming he is back in the lineup, the sophomore should be able to exploit a Wildcat secondary allowing 244.8 yards per game.

COMMENTS

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COMMENTS

SEC Preview: Wk 10

Florida (5-3, 3-3) at Vanderbilt (2-6, 1-4), 12:21 p.m., ET
TV: SEC Network

A subtly huge game, even though the Gators should roll. Be interesting to see how Florida responds after a very draining experience last week against Georgia, just squeaking past the Bulldogs in overtime. Good thing for Florida the South Carolina game — what figures to be the SEC East title game — isn’t this weekend.

As it is, the Gators get the closest thing there is to a bye week in SEC play, although note that Florida at least has to go on the road. Urban Meyer seemed to find something with the usage of three quarterbacks, also incorporating Jordan Reed, along with John Brantley and Trey Burton. Really, it’s about locating a balance between Brantley, who was still very average, and Burton, who was again dynamic and did complete two passes.

It’s hardly a work of art, but the Florida offense might be sufficient to manage two more wins — and then get clobbered by the West winner in Atlanta.

As for Vanderbilt, things got even worse with the news that running back Warren Norman is out for the season, following wrist surgery. Robbie Caldwell’s got his work cut out for him keeping his team glued together. Then again, it shouldn’t be anything for a man who’s dabbled in turkey insemination. The state title is still out there for the Commodores.

Player to Watch: Jordan Reed, Florida RB/TE. Let’s see how Reed is used this week, or if the tricks remain shelved for the Gamecocks.

Idaho State (1-7, 0-6) at Georgia (4-5, 3-4), 12:30 p.m., ET
TV: PPV/local affiliates

How did Idaho State wind up on the Bulldogs’ schedule, exactly? Wait, we don’t even want to know. Georgia doesn’t, either. It’ll take a victory in any shape and form. As its only FCS opponent, Idaho State will count toward getting the Bulldogs bowl-eligible, which still is no guarantee considering Auburn and Georgia Tech close out the regular season.

Todd Grantham shouldn’t have to break out the choke sign for the — wait a sec, got to look up what Idaho State’s mascot is — Bengals. This is a chance for Georgia to brush itself off, after last week’s crumble at the end, and prepare for two incredibly important November games. Aaron Murray needs to play like the dude in the fourth quarter against Florida — not the first, and overtime.

Player to Watch: Justin Houston, LB. This guy’s going to wind up leading the SEC in sacks, likely aided by this game.

Charleston Southern (2-6) at Kentucky (4-5), 12:30 p.m., ET
TV: PPV

Detecting a theme, with the pay-per-view games? There are some clunkers on the conference’s slate this week. Everybody’s prepping for November with a pseudo-open date, it seems. The Buccaneers have already been lambs-to-the-slaughter in Hawaii. But, you know, that was in Hawaii. The Bluegrass gets some frost on it about this time of year. And it’s expected to be quite chilly for a team from temperate North Charleston, S.C. Yes, that’s right. Charleston Southern, directionally confused, is in North Charleston.

Oh, right, the game. Kentucky was a play away from tying the game last week at Mississippi State. Then again, the Wildcats are an incompletion away from winless in the SEC. Just keep motoring, if you’re Joker’s boys, and hope for a bowl in a strange, strange season in which Randall Cobb called out the fanbase — after the season’s biggest win.

Player to Watch: Derrick Locke, Kentucky RB. This is the longest time ever missed for a stinger in human history. The Wildcats will not need him this week, but they will the rest of November if they would like a postseason.

Chattanooga (5-3) at No. 3 Auburn (9-0), 1:00 p.m., ET
TV: PPV

This is the only game we recommend forking over the pay-per-view bucks for. Cam Newton is worth the price of visual admission, regardless of the opponent.

Chattanooga isn’t an abysmal team in the Southern Conference, at least not compared to the other FCS schlubs listed above. But the Mocs are clearly not on Auburn’s level. Not even if alum Terrell Owens showed up.

Here’s a chance, though, for Auburn’s defense to tighten up a bit. That’ll be necessarily for those two remaining tests, Georgia and at Alabama, if the Tigers really are interested in winning an SEC (or national) title.

Player to Watch: Cam Newton, Auburn WR. He’s a receiver now, apparently. Let’s see if he dabbles at safety or kicking off this week. Has there been a more valuable player to his team in recent memory? He’s a bigger team MVP than even Tim Tebow.

No. 5 Alabama at No. 12 Louisiana State, 3:30 p.m., ET
TV: CBS

Team plays close with Auburn at Auburn, but loses. Has the following week off. Hosts Alabama the next week. That’s the scenario unfolding for LSU, and it should sound familiar. It was the very same formula for South Carolina, leading into the Gamecocks’ upset of the Tide.

Here are some reasons why that will not happen:

• It already happened once. Lightning doesn’t seem to strike twice on Nick Saban’s watch.

• The Tide hasn’t been playing all that well. Even if it did distance itself from Tennessee, it was a close game at the half. Ole Miss was a wash. Really, Bama hasn’t been Bama since going all “Swamp People” on the Gators. Here’s a chance to make a statement.

• LSU’s offense isn’t nearly as good as South Carolina’s. There’s no one nearly as dynamic as Marcus Lattimore or Alshon Jeffery on LSU’s sideline. Weird as it is to say, the Tigers would have a decent chance to win, if only they had Stephen Garcia as their QB.

Some really believe Alabama is still going to play for the SEC title and end up in a BCS bowl. We’ll buy. Look for a determined Tide team coming off its bye.

Player to Watch: Mark Ingram, Alabama RB. Remember him? It’s about time he broke out, even against a staunch D.

Louisiana-Lafayette (2-6) at Ole Miss (3-5), 7 p.m., ET
TV: ESPNU

God bless you, Louisiana-Lafayette. You all are 0–36 all-time against the SEC, but you still keep trying. We’re sure the paychecks aren’t terrible consolation prizes, but they’re still not getting the program to an SEC level, it seems. The Cajuns supplied one of the season’s more surprising results, somehow losing 54–21 — at home — to a Western Kentucky team that had lost 26 straight games, the longest streak in all divisions at that time.

The Rebels already lost one of these games this season, the opener against Jacksonville State (which might be better than Ooh-La-La, even though it’s a class down). So, in short, don’t expect it to happen again. Some pundits were picking the Rebels to dethrone Auburn a week ago. Let’s not get carried away. At the very least, can Houston Nutt bring back those silver unis? Those were sharp.

Player to Watch: Jesse Grandy, Ole Miss WR. Get the ball in his hands. This guy’s got some speed to him.

Arkansas (6-2, 3-2) at South Carolina (6-2, 4-2), 7 p.m., ET
TV: ESPN

Ah, the other game in the league this week. Odd spot for the Gamecocks, who can win the division, with or without this game. You wouldn’t have figured in August, or even a month ago, that would be the case.

Hindsight’s not 20-20 in the Gamecocks’ case. It just gives them a terrible headache. With one play going differently at Kentucky — the Wildcats’ only SEC win, to date — the Gamecocks would have two shots at the division. Instead, this week is moot in that discussion and it’s only a prelude to the Swamp. But South Carolina has adamantly said this week that Arkansas still means a great deal to the team. In that respect, both teams are playing for the same thing. With identical records, the Gamecocks and Razorbacks are fighting for similar bowl fates. So, head to head will come into play in early December, in that regard.

Ryan Mallett completed 23-of-27 passes, including 12-of-13 in the second half, as the Hogs rattled off 23 straight points to beat the Gamecocks a year ago. This time, South Carolina is giving up a league-worst 259.9 passing yards a game. And it lost a senior corner, Chris Culliver, for the season. Not a good recipe to stem an explosive passing offense.

The Gamecocks’ only hope is to outscore the Hogs, leaning on Lattimore (especially to control the clock) and Jeffery (Arkansas’ defense isn’t anything special, either). That, and Razorbacks top receiver Greg Childs is done for the year. These teams stack up evenly. With that in mind, don’t ignore the fact that South Carolina has won 13 of 14 at home, with the only loss coming to then-No. 1 Florida last November. But the Gamecocks have come unglued in Novembers past.

In short, who freaking knows what’s going to happen in this game?

Player to Watch: Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina RB. He might be the Gamecocks’ best defense, keeping Mallett off the field. Lattimore had a season-best 184 yards last week against Tennessee.

Tennessee (2-6) at Memphis (1-7), 7 p.m., CT
TV: CBS College Sports

Memphis is purported to be one of the worst college football teams in America. Backing that up is the fact that the Tigers are 18-point home underdogs to Tennessee — something that even caught Vols first-year coach Derek Dooley off guard earlier in the week.

Tennessee did manage to do some things right, even in the second half, at South Carolina last week. The decision to go with Tyler Bray in the second half might have rankled Matt Simms (he’s since apologized), but it was the right move. Ahem, even after he threw a pick six immediately upon entering the game.

Bray rebounded enough, though, to get the nod this week. Denarius Moore showed last week he could get behind South Carolina’s defensive backs. So that lends evidence that he might be able to sneak past Memphis’ secondary, as well.

Mentioned this about Vanderbilt, but the state title is still out there for the Vols. Small steps, small victories for Dooley’s Vols.

Player to Watch: Denarius Moore, Tennessee WR. A nod for that 228-yard day last week in Columbia. Few more times out like that, and he might net himself a look to play on Sundays.

COMMENTS

Pac-10 Preview: Wk 10

Washington at Oregon, Saturday, 12:30 p.m.

Washington’s chances of winning this game are about 1 in 100. That is, Oregon has the No. 1 offense in the country while the Huskies have the No. 100 defense. Plus, the Ducks are at home. The only thing that may stop Oregon in this game is the clock. The only question is whether the first number of the Ducks’ score will begin with a 5, 6 or 7. Any hopes the Huskies had of trying to keep pace offensively with Oregon were effectively erased when the team announced quarterback Jake Locker would have to sit out with a cracked rib. Washington’s free-fall from bowl eligibility looks to be accelerating.

California at Washington State, Saturday, 1:00 p.m.

The Bears are heavy favorites, but don’t be shocked if this game is competitive. The Cougars are still bad, but they clearly are improving from where they were two seasons ago. They have some talent now on offense and have demonstrated they can move the ball. The Bears are reeling. They lost starting quarterback Kevin Riley last week to a season-ending knee injury and haven’t proven they can win on the road. Cal is 0–4 away from home, getting outscored 145–61 in the process. Junior Brock Mansion will make his first career start for the Bears, who need to win two of their final four games to become bowl-eligible.

Oregon State at UCLA, Saturday, 4:00 p.m.

Despite the loss of All-America candidate James Rodgers at wide receiver, the Beavers are still in the Pac-10 race, although Oregon looks unbeatable at this point. Oregon State is 3–1 in conference play after last week’s impressive win over Cal, and is oh-so-close to being 4–0 were it not for a missed two-point conversion in double overtime against Washington. The Beavers are 1½ games behind the Ducks in the Pac-10 race, and the teams will meet in the Civil War to close out the season. The Bruins, meanwhile, have lost three in a row since their supposed upset of Texas, although that’s not looking like such a big deal anymore. UCLA is looking like the eighth-place team it was picked to be before the season.

Arizona at Stanford, Saturday, 5 p.m.

The implications of this game are clear: The winner keeps alive its slim hopes of catching Oregon in the Pac-10 race, while the loser redefines its goals and simply starts playing for the best bowl berth possible. For the second straight week, Stanford’s Andrew Luck gets to go head-to-head with one of the other top quarterbacks in the conference, Arizona’s Nick Foles. Foles missed the past two games with a dislocated kneecap but is fully healed and expected to start. That being said, the Wildcats still may find a way to get backup Matt Scott some playing time. Scott excelled filling in for Foles, averaging 276 yards passing while throwing three touchdown passes with one interception. Luck easily outplayed Washington’s Jake Locker in last week’s showdown of top Pac-10 quarterbacks.

Arizona State at USC, Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

The Trojans were humbled by Oregon at home last week. Now, USC, with no bowl game to play for, simply looks to finish as high up in the conference standings as possible. The Trojans are tied for fifth place with three other teams entering the weekend. This may be the most winnable game left on USC’s conference schedule — the Trojans still have to play at Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA. Arizona State is a hard team to figure out. The Sun Devils have been competitive against good teams like Wisconsin and Oregon State but were blown out by Cal, also an up and down team. The Sun Devils are coming off a thorough pasting of Washington State last week.
 

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TCU-Utah Duel Takes Center Stage

TCU (-4.5) at Utah
For the first time in the 13-year history of the BCS, there are three teams from non-automatic qualifying conferences ranked in the top five of the BCS standings. Two of those three teams get together this weekend in Salt Lake City in a game that almost assuredly will determine the champion of the Mountain West Conference. Utah and TCU have been dominant on both sides of the ball all season long; both schools rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense and scoring defense. So which team is more dominant? The guess here is TCU, which has a few more quality wins by more decisive margins. The Horned Frogs own wins over Oregon State (by nine), Baylor (by 35) and Air Force (by 31).
TCU 30, Utah 17

Alabama (-6.5) at LSU
Auburn is the only undefeated team in the SEC and is ranked No. 2 in the BCS Standings, but Alabama is still very much in the national title chase. The Tide, No. 6 in the BCS, will likely climb to at least No. 2 if they run the table, which would of course include a win over Auburn. First things first, however. A talented but enigmatic LSU team awaits Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have been consistently strong on defense but remain a work-in-progress (to put it kindly) on offense. The quarterback situation is a mess, with neither Jordan Jefferson nor Jarrert Lee showing the ability to seize the job on a full-time basis. You can never count out LSU at Tiger Stadium, but Nick Saban should improve to 3–0 against his former team.
Alabama 20, LSU 10

Baylor (+7) at Oklahoma State
First place is on the line in the Big 12 South when Baylor visits Oklahoma State. The Bears have been arguably the biggest surprise in college football this season. They improved to 7–2 overall and 4–1 in the Big 12 with a 30–22 win in Texas — their first in Austin since 1987. Art Briles’ teams are known for their pass-happy attack, but the Bears have nice offensive balance and have been better than expected on defense. Oklahoma State has also surprised this season. With 17 starters gone from last year’s nine-win team, the Pokes were picked to finish no higher than fifth in the South by most. There is still plenty of heavy lifting, but a win over Baylor would be a big step toward their first-ever division title.
Oklahoma State 30, Baylor 27

Arizona (+9.5) at Stanford
Undefeated and top-ranked Oregon is in control of the Pac-10 race, but there are three teams with only one loss — Arizona, Stanford and Oregon State. All three still have their sights set on a league title, but there is no shame in a second-place finish in the Pac-10 this season. If Oregon remains among the top two teams in the BCS, the Ducks will head to the national title game, possibly opening up a spot for the No. 2 team from the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl. (It's a bit confusing, but the Rose Bowl might be forced to take a non-AQ team in this spot.) Stanford’s last postseason trip to Pasadena was on Jan. 1, 2000 during the Ty Willingham era. Arizona is the only Pac-10 team that has never been to the Rose Bowl. It’s safe to say this is a huge game for both schools.
Stanford 34, Arizona 24

Arkansas (+4) at South Carolina
Arkansas and South Carolina have played every season since both schools joined the SEC in 1992. This is the first time both teams have had a winning league record at the time of the game. South Carolina is alone atop the East with a 4–2 record while Arkansas is tied for fourth in the much-stronger West at 3–2. Surprisingly, this game figures to have no bearing on the Gamecocks’ chances of winning the East for the first time ever. Unless Vanderbilt beats Florida — which isn’t likely — the winner of the South Carolina-Florida game (in Gainesville) on Nov. 13 will represent the East in Atlanta. This game likely will be decided by which defense can do a better job covering up its weaknesses. South Carolina can’t stop the pass, and throwing the ball is Arkansas’ strength. On the other hand, Arkansas struggles to stop the run, which could mean big things for South Carolina freshman Marcus Lattimore. The talent level is pretty even. Arkansas is due for a big win.
Arkansas 34, South Carolina 31

Illinois (+3) at Michigan
Illinois is very quietly enjoying a solid season, with an overall record of 5–3 and a 3–2 mark in the Big Ten. The Fighting Illini’s three losses have come against Missouri, Ohio State and Michigan State, three top 15 teams that have a combined three losses. He’s not completely out of the woods, but embattled Illinois coach Ron Zook appears to have saved his job — for now. Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez, on the other hand, might be playing his way back on to the hot seat. After a 5–0 start, the Wolverines have lost three straight games, bringing back memories of late-season collapses in both 2008 and ’09 (1–7 over the final eight games each season). This is a very, very, very big game for Michigan.
Michigan 33, Illinois 28

Florida (-14) at Vanderbilt
Florida got back on track last week with a 34–31 overtime win over Georgia. The Gators rolled up 450 yards of offense, keeping the Dawgs off-balance with a no-huddle, hurry-up attack that produced big plays with both John Brantley at quarterback and Trey Burton taking snaps out of the Wildcat formation. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, continued its epic struggles on offense in a 49–14 loss at Arkansas. The Commodores scored on their first two possessions in Fayetteville but did not pick up another first down until the fourth quarter. In SEC games, Vanderbilt is averaging 10.4 points per game — only Akron (10.2 ppg) and Kansas (10.0) average fewer in their respective conferences — and a paltry 195.6 yards per game (by far the worst of any team in the nation in conference games).
Florida 30, Vanderbilt 7

Louisville (+6) at Syracuse
They are flying a bit under the national radar, but the Syracuse Orange — one of the worst BCS programs in the nation over the past five years — are 6–2 overall and 3–1 in the Big East (with all three wins on the road). Granted, three of the victories have come against a very, very bad FBS team (Akron) and two FCS foes (Maine and Colgate), but SU does have wins at West Virginia, South Florida and Cincinnati. Louisville is also an improved team, but the Cardinals might be without Bilal Powell, who ranks fifth in the nation in rushing.
Syracuse 24, Louisville 14

Oklahoma (-3) at Texas A&M
Oklahoma is 7–1 overall and ranked No. 8 in the BCS standings yet is only a 3-point favorite at Texas A&M. Seems a bit curious, but keep in mind that this is only the Sooners’ third road game of the season, and they struggled in their first two— winning by two points against a Cincinnati team that is 3–5 and losing 36–29 at Missouri two weeks ago. Texas A&M, at 5–3 overall and 2–2 in the Big 12, has been a disappointment, but this is still a pretty good team. The Aggies don’t really have any quality wins, but they also don’t have any bad losses (at O-State, vs. Arkansas, Missouri). Ryan Tannehill has been superb since taking over at quarterback from Jerrod Johnson, completing 48-of-66 passes for 604 yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception. I smell an upset.
Texas A&M 30, Oklahoma 24

Northwestern (+5) at Penn State
Northwestern is already bowl-eligible at 6–2, but the Wildcats haven’t exactly faced the most difficult slate. They are 3–2 vs. BCS conference opponents, with the three wins coming against Vanderbilt (by two points), Minnesota (by one) and Indiana (by three). Don’t be surprised if this team ends the regular season with a 6–6 record. Penn State is feeling pretty good about itself for the first time in a while (maybe all season). The Nittany Lions improved to 5–3 last week with a 41–31 win over Michigan that wasn’t quite as tight as the score indicates. With Matt McGloin running the offense, the Lions rolled up 41 points (most against an FBS opponent) and 435 yards (most against a Big Ten opponent). McGloin is likely to get the start again this week, but true freshman Rob Bolden might play as well.
Penn State 27, Northwestern 21

Last week: 7–3 overall (5–5 against the spread)
Season: 59–31 overall (44–42–4 against the spread)

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