Philadelphia Eagles QB Michael Vick

Athlon Sports’ 2011 Fantasy Football magazine has Philadelphia quarterback Michael Vick ranked No. 6 at his position and No. 26 overall because we don’t trust him. 

Will Mike Vick become a fantasy bust this year? The reason we think he will be if you make him a Top 5 drafted QB. Why? Because of trust.

We don’t trust that the 31-year-old will have the kind of year on the ground that he had last season, when he piled up 676 yards and nine scores. Since the 1960s, no quarterback who has rushed for even eight touchdowns in a season has come back to score more than five the next year.

We don’t trust that the career 55 percent passer will repeat his 62.6 percent performance from a year ago. He had eclipsed 55.3 percent passing in a season only one time before last year, and he did not hit last year’s 62.6 percent season mark in any of his final four games of the season.

We don’t trust that Vick’s offensive line has improved enough to keep him comfortable in the pocket, despite the fact that the Eagles need to do all they can to protect their key asset with Vince Young, never having run the West Coast offense, being the next man up.

In the six games after his monster 57.3-point fantasy effort against Washington, Vick attempted more than 38 passes five times — something he had not done in his first six games of the season — and he was intercepted in all but one of the games, fumbled nine times (lost three of them) and had 19 of his 34 sacks.

Did defenses figure him out? Well if they didn’t, they have certainly had nothing but time during this lockout to study all they need to about the new-and-improved Michael Vick.

And we had Vick ranked sixth at QB and 26th overall well before DeSean Jackson decided to hold out and long before knowing of Jeremy Maclin's health issues. These two factors don't help his cause much, either.

Combining all the above with the fact that we also don’t believe he will make it a full 16 games has led us to the following conclusion: Beware of Vick in 2011.

We DO trust the quarterbacks who have done it year in and year out in recent memory more than we trust a player who finally put it together for one season and didn’t even stay healthy in the process.

Our Old Reliables are Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers — all quarterbacks who succeeded with missing pieces last year and have been there at the top year after year.

That five-man group has started 537 of a possible 560 games (95.9 percent) since becoming starters for their respective teams. Of the 23 missed starts by these five, Brady accounts for 15. He tore his ACL and MCL a little over seven minutes into the first game of the 2008 season.

We are willing to take the chance that, while they may score fewer points than Vick, their chances of being upright from Week 1 to Week 16 are much greater than the Philly scrambler’s. Vick, who was incarcerated during the 2007 and 2008 seasons and had to sit the bench in 2009, has started only 77 of a possible 90 regular-season games (85.5 percent) since 2002 and has played a 16-game season only once.

So take the risk if you’d like and waste another pick in the middle of your draft to get some insurance. Meanwhile, we will take the safe, proven bet — pick up a player in that same round who we can use multiple weeks and see who gets to the championship.

WHAT A PHILLY BEAT WRITER SAYS:
Q: Vick: Better or worse in 2011?
A: Depends which part of the first year you’re comparing him to. Vick put up some ridiculous numbers in wins over Washington and the New York Giants but tailed off at the end of the season as teams began finding ways to blitz him into poor decisions. Best guess: Vick will be steadier in 2011, putting up reliably good numbers without as many extreme highs or lows. Also, expect his rushing totals — Vick had nine of the Eagles’ 18 rushing TDs last year — to be down. One thing Vick and the coaches want is for him to protect his body more.

— Phil Sheridan, Philadelphia Inquirer

OLD RELIABLES
Here’s how the five QBs we have ranked ahead of Vick have fared when it comes to starting games from the time they ascended to the starting role on their respective teams. Vick has started 77 of 90 games in that time.
Player, Years — Starts
Aaron Rodgers, since 2008 — 47 of 48
Philip Rivers, since 2006 — 80 of 80
Peyton Manning, since 2002 — 144 of 144
Drew Brees, since 2002 — 137 of 144
Tom Brady, since 2002 — 129 of 144
Total starts, since 2002 — 537 of 560

More Fantasy Football Coverage:
Athlon Sports gives its Best Bets — sleepers, deep sleepers, overvalues, top rookies, bounce-back and top IDPs from the each of the 32 NFL teams — for fantasy football in 2011. Also see our values/overvalues story as well as our players we are trying to avoid for the 2011 season. And for more on each NFL team, see our in-depth breakdown for all 32 teams.

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets and Rankings:
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Top 280
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Top 240 w/ IDPs
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defense/Special Teams

Athlon Sports looks at the top 12 injury concerns overall and by position for the 2011 fantasy football season. These are 48 guys that may concern you in your draft preparation, and that you may be able to get as a steal due to their injury history or may go much sooner than they should because of that history.

• Overall
1. Matthew Stafford, DET, QB 
Burly, strong-armed passer has played in only 13 of his possible 32 career games.

2. Frank Gore, SF, RB 
Has not played 16 games in a season since his second year in 2006.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB 
Battled through injuries last season and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in January.

4. Michael Vick, PHI, QB 
Dynamic dual-threat who takes a beating has played in 16 games only once in his career.

5. Austin Collie, IND, WR 
A thumb injury, multiple concussions, and his role in the slot make him a risky pick.

6. Owen Daniels, HOU, TE 
Has missed 13 games over the last two seasons with serious injuries.

7. Antonio Gates, SD, TE 
Chronic foot issues have bothered him for years; finally cost him six games last fall.

8. Joseph Addai, IND, RB 
Has missed 13 games over the last three seasons for a team that doesn’t look to run often.

9. DeAngelo Williams, CAR, RB
A serious foot injury cost him most of 2010. He missed three games in 2009 as well.

10. Ryan Grant, GB, RB 
Upright runner saw his 2010 end after eight carries with a season-ending ankle injury.

11. Steve Smith, PHI, WR
May start the season on the PUP list while recovering from microfracture knee surgery.

12. Sidney Rice, MIN, WR 
Hip injury forced Rice to miss all but six games last season following breakout 2009.

• Quarterbacks
1. Matthew Stafford, DET
Burly, strong-armed passer has played in only 13 of his possible 32 career games — missing all but three contests last season.

2. Michael Vick, PHI
Dynamic dual-threat who takes a beating. Vick has played in all 16 games only once in his career (2006).

3. Peyton Manning, IND
Has had neck sugery in each of the past two offseasons. Colts might not be concerned — but fantasy owners should be.

4. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN
Has missed 12 games over the last three years, and he turns 36 in September.

5. Alex Smith, SF
Has averaged fewer than 10 games per season over the last three years.

6. David Garrard, JAC
His 216 carries over the last three years will begin to take a toll at some point — it cost him two games in 2010.

7. Tarvaris Jackson, SEA
Injuries interfered with his opportunities last fall, and the five projected starters on the O-line have never played together.

8. Tony Romo, DAL
Porous O-line could keep Romo running for his life after missing most of 2010 to a broken collarbone.

9. Jay Cutler, CHI
Takes chances, and his mental toughness was questioned in the playoffs a year ago.

10. Chad Henne, MIA
Has never started a full season in the NFL, due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

11. Christian Ponder, MIN
Suffered shoulder and elbow injuries in college; might not get much protection from his O-line this fall — if he plays at all.

12. Matt Schaub, HOU
Injury issues could be a thing of the past, but he missed 10 games in 2007-08.

• Running Backs
1. Frank Gore, SF
Suffered hip injury in Week 12 last season; had two knee injuries during his college days at Miami.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
Battled through injuries last season and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in January.

3. Joseph Addai, IND
Has missed 13 games over the last three seasons for a team that doesn’t look to run often.

4. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
A serious foot injury cost him most of 2010. He missed three games in 2009 as well.

5. Ryan Grant, GB
Upright runner saw his 2010 end after eight carries due to a season-ending ankle injury.

6. Pierre Thomas, NO
Ankle injury cost him 10 games last fall. Arrival of Mark Ingram crowds the backfield.

7. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
Nagging ankle injury required offseason surgery for the smallish second-year starter.

8. Ronnie Brown, PHI
Alternates healthy and injured years: seven games (2007), 16 games (’08), nine games (’09) and 16 games (’10).

9. Montario Hardesty, CLE
Recovering from a torn ACL that caused him to miss the entire 2010 season.

10. Beanie Wells, ARI
Battled injuries at Ohio State, and that trend continued last fall with a knee issue.

• Wide Receivers
1. Austin Collie, IND
A thumb injury, multiple concussions — in both November and December 2010 — as well as his role in the slot make him a risky pick.

2. Steve Smith, PHI
May start the season on the PUP list while recovering from microfracture knee surgery.

3. Sidney Rice, SEA
Hip injury forced Rice to miss all but six games last year following a breakout 2009 season.

4. Danario Alexander/Donnie Avery/ Mark Clayton, STL
Each of these Rams has dealt with major injuries over the past few seasons.

5. Arrelious Benn, TB
All signs point to him being healthy for the start of the season after rehabbing a torn ACL.

6. Marques Colston, NO
Appears to be struggling to get healthy after undergoing offseason knee surgery. He missed five games in 2008 as well.

7. Dez Bryant, DAL
Season ended with a fractured ankle last fall, but he appears ready to go in 2011. Bryant is also a concern off the field.

8. Percy Harvin, MIN
Migraine headaches have cost Harvin a handful of games the last few seasons; he also has a history of hamstring and ankle issues.

9. Michael Crabtree, SF
Injuries continue to plague the former first-round pick, who is battling an injury this training camp as well.

10. Wes Welker, NE
Healed from ACL injury in 2009, but he gets hit a lot near the line of scrimmage.

11. DeSean Jackson, PHI
Brittle, smallish player has missed time in each of the last two seasons.

12. Jerricho Cotchery, PIT
Offseason back surgery and declining numbers add doubt to his value in 2011.

• Tight Ends
1. Owen Daniels, HOU
Has missed 13 games over the last two seasons with serious injuries.

2. Antonio Gates, SD
Chronic foot problems have bothered Gates for years and cost him six games last fall.

3. Dallas Clark, IND
A season-ending wrist injury slowed one of the most physical tight ends in the league.

4. Jermichael Finley, GB
A season-ending knee injury in Week 5 cut short what was looking like a breakout season.

5. Todd Heap, ARI
Missed three games in 2010, and he turned 31 in March.

6. Heath Miller, PIT
Has missed two games in two of the last three seasons.

7. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
Rookie missed significant time over his final two seasons at Notre Dame due to hamstring and shoulder issues.

8. Jeremy Shockey, CAR
The 10th-year vet has missed 10 games over the last three seasons.

9. Jermaine Gresham, CIN
Suffered ACL injuries in high school (2005) and at Oklahoma (2009).

10. Chris Cooley, WAS
Workhorse bounced back last season after missing nine games in 2009, but is battling injuries in camp already.

11. Tony Moeaki, KC
Missed time in each of his final two seasons at Iowa and one game last season in Kansas City. Was on PUP list at outset of camp.

12. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
Has played at least 15 games in all 14 NFL seasons, but Gonzalez turned 35 in February.

More Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets and Rankings:
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Top 280
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Top 240 w/ IDPs
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defense/Special Teams

Every once in a while there’s that player who has the “magic” season in fantasy football. But what does history say his next season will look like? Let’s take a look at those players over the five seasons prior to 2010 who led their positions and were at least 30 points ahead of their next-closest competitor in one season, and see how they fared the next season. A repeat is possible. However, it’s also worth noting that the two who did repeat their No. 1 ranking did not increase their points totals in doing so.