Backseat Drivers Fan Council

Crew chiefs, Chase races and grading Dover

Members of the Backseat Drivers Fan Council take a wider look at the sport this week, judging who they think the best crew chief in the Chase is and if the length of the Chase should remain 10 races. Here’s a look at what they had to say:

Who is the best crew chief in the Chase?

42.4 percent said Chad Knaus (Jimmie Johnson)
25.2 percent said Paul Wolfe (Brad Keselowski)
18.3 percent said Darian Grubb (Denny Hamlin
5.0 percent said Steve Letarte (Dale Earnhardt Jr.)
2.7 percent said Alan Gustafson (Jeff Gordon)
1.5 percent said Kenny Francis (Kasey Kahne)
1.1 percent said Steve Addington (Tony Stewart)
1.1 percent said Jimmy Fennig (Matt Kenseth)
1.1 percent said Chad Johnston (Martin Truex Jr.)
0.8 percent said Gil Martin (Kevin Harvick)
0.8 percent said Brian Pattie (Clint Bowyer)
0.0 percent said Matt Puccia (Greg Biffle)

What Fan Council members said:
• Five championships, well in contention for six. Chad has been and continues to be the best.

• Chad, and then everyone else. Chad Knaus has revolutionized the crew chief position and forced every other one to step up. If it wasn't for him, I'm not sure J.J. has even one title under his belt.

• Paul Wolfe is not afraid of taking a chance and he and Brad sure make a good pair.

• I gotta give it to Paul for this year. So far they have not faltered, in fact they've shown the way to others by giving his driver all the adjustments necessary to excel at the end, when it counts. And he can count fuel mileage unlike others.

• Darian Grubb has shown that he has what it takes to be a great crew chief. He took Tony Stewart to a championship last year and then was dumped. He bounced back and has given Denny Hamlin his best year yet. No matter if he wins the championship or not, Denny is having a great year. And if he does win the championship, it will be with the help of a great crew chief.

• I think that Darian is the best in the garage. Look at his record the last two years and you can't say any other crew chief has won more races. He's the top dog.

• I chose Steve Letarte because he is responsible for the unbelievable transformation of Dale Jr. I rode with Junior during driver's introduction in 2010. What I saw was a very unhappy and depressed man with no confidence. Interviews were done with his head down. Now he appears to be a happy, confident driver who has an awesome relationship with his crew chief and is appreciative of what he has. One of the biggest changes is what you hear on the scanner.

• So far it's hard to bet against Alan Gustafson. Not only has he made the right calls, the obvious respect he and Jeff have for each other along with the trust Jeff has in Alan's decisions make them a team worth noting.

• Mr. Fennig has forgotten more about technical matters than the other crew chiefs can ever hope to learn.

• Gil is an outstanding crew chief and gets very little credit for having to put up with Harvick on a daily basis.


How long should the Chase be?

80.8 percent said 10 races
10.8 percent said 5 races
4.2 percent said 8 races
4.2 percent said 6 races

What Fan Council members said:
• 10 weeks is good, that way if you blow it one week it does not mean game over.

• I think 10 is perfect. It has most every type of track there is other than a road course. Put one of those in and take one of the 1.5-milers out and you have a perfect collection.

• I like the number of races just the way it is. With 10 races it gives the fans a chance to see who will be the cream of the crop — who really deserves to be in the Chase. The champion won't be fluke, but a team who has shown to have consistency and can win some races.

• Five races. Richmond to get in, Bristol to start, then Watkins Glen, Talladega, Martinsville, Homestead. 10 races is too long. We got spoiled last year with the epic battle to the last lap of the season. I have a feeling we wont see that ever again.

• The Chase is perfect the way it is. If the number of races is shortened there will be no suspense at all. The driver who wins the first race will most likely win the championship. Right now it is fun to watch Jeff Gordon try to redeem himself. He wouldn't have a chance with a shortened Chase.

• One race each at a short track, road course, plate, 2-mile, 1.5-mile and a 1-mile track. Change the 1.5-mile track each year for the finale or have it at Las Vegas permanently.

• I picked 10, but believe 12 drivers and 12 races (with the current 36-race schedule) works best. Makes sense: a greater spread of races and possibility to make moves to the current bland schedule. Richmond could move back to the Chase decider or become a late-season race (a la Rockingham back in the day). I like the thought of a 500-mile race at Atlanta opening the Chase more than Chicago or New Hampshire.

• I don't like the Chase, but 10 is a good number. Attrition/elimination are about to enter into the picture. Fewer races would just make it about luck and who's hot at the moment.


Grade Sunday’s race at Dover

45.2 percent called it Fair
33.3 percent called it Good
18.8 percent called it Poor
2.7 percent called it Great

What Fan Council members said:
• One word for Sunday's race: STRANGE.

• We attended the race and came up with three exciting moments: The one instance of three-wide racing in Turn 2, Kyle Busch gaining on Jimmie Johnson toward the end and the breath-holding laps of Jeff Gordon fans hoping Alan Gustafson was right about having enough fuel (thanks Alan & Jeff for a very nice birthday gift! lol) 400 miles of racing & three moments of excitement (unless you're also a big fan of Brad Keselowski, then add his win). No wonder the stands were barely half full and emptied out by another quarter by the time the race ended. We used to love going to Dover. It's a shame the racing has gone downhill there too.

• What is going on in this Chase? No exciting races yet! This is another “Poor” rating for me for watching another high-speed parade of cars go around the track.

• I was there and any race at Dover is a great “in-person” race.

• Boring race till the last 50 laps.

• Boring race from start to finish. Didn't seem to be much hard racing, excitement or drama. Strategy and fuel mileage races will always be a part of the sport but it really doesn't make for a very exciting finish when drivers can't race each other because they have to slow down so they don't run out of fuel.

• It certainly was not a great race at all but not the worst. Only having six cars on the lead lap shook it up, which was fun to see. Otherwise, it seemed there was only a few passes and the finish wasn't too bad.

• I was there. This was without a doubt the most boring race I've ever been to (or seen on TV)! I left with about 70 laps to go. I've never seen so many folks leave so early en mass. I used buses provided by local law enforcement and encouraged by the track. Six full buses left before I was able to get on one (before race was over)!

• I really hated to give it a rating of “Poor” because that first caution put a lot of cars a lap or more down. NASCAR can't do anything about that — just dumb luck.

• It was my first NASCAR race and I enjoyed every moment of it. Great strategy towards the end and a surprise winner.


The Backseat Drivers Fan Council was founded and is administered by Dustin Long. Fans can join by sending Dustin an email at dustinlong002@gmail.com.

Please include the following information:
Name, city, state, Twitter name, e-mail address and favorite driver.
 

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2012

COMMENTS

Keselowski wins in Dover

Fuel mileage, strategy, pay off for Keselowski, Penske Racing

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is only three races into its 10-race Chase for the Championship playoff stint. And thus far, three drivers seem to have separated themselves from the field.

One made a major statement in the AAA 400 from Dover International Speedway — a statement even bolder than Denny Hamlin’s perceived “called shot” and win a week earlier in New Hampshire.

Brad Keselowski led only 14 of 400 laps on Sunday, but 10 of those — the final 10 — were the most important of the day.

Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe executed a late-race fuel run to perfection, going the final 89 laps on a single tank of gas, outsmarting and outperforming Chase rivals Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson, to score their second win in three playoff events.

“We slowly eked our way up from the 10th starting position up to fourth,” Keselowski said. “Kind of fell in there on that last run, after my pit crew got me out fourth, and that put us in position to really capitalize on good strategy and execution.

“My guys did that. They did a great job. Together we were able to manage it (fuel mileage) very well, which is important as anything else in racing these days.”

As with most races decided by fuel mileage, the best car wasn’t the one that completed the scheduled distance first. Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch (302 laps led) and Hamlin (39), along with Johnson (43), were the unquestioned class of the field. However, as the laps wound down, all three realized a decision must be made: Run all-out and pit for fuel late, hoping for a caution flag, or slow down, conserve gas and settle for whatever respectable finish they could muster.

The Gibbs teams chose the former, as Busch pitted from the lead with 11 circuits remaining. That handed the lead to Hamlin, who hit pit road one lap later.

Johnson’s strategy had kicked in much earlier. Leading the race with 40 laps remaining, crew chief Chad Knaus radioed the driver that they would not make it to the end running their current pace. Johnson gave up the lead to Busch and peddled the car down the stretch.

Enter Keselowski and the No. 2 Penske Racing team, a bunch adept at stretching a tank of gas. Running a steady fourth with enough in the tank, they simply waited for others to make a mistake (Busch and Hamlin) or settle (Johnson).

Inheriting the lead on lap 391, Keselowski held off a charging Jeff Gordon to score his fifth win of the 2012 season and into the points lead.

Mark Martin was third, while Johnson’s fuel-saving gamble worked to the tune of a fourth-place run. Carl Edwards was fifth.

Busch finished one lap down in seventh while Hamlin was eighth.

“This fuel mileage game sucks,” a dejected Hamlin said. “All the hard work that you put in — drove as hard as I could drive for 400 laps — and then it’s like you look up and wonder why we’re eighth. That part of it is frustrating, but it’s just some people have different strategies. Some people have better fuel mileage, but not as good of a handling racecar. I’ll take good-handling racecars and good horsepower any day.”

So it’s Keselowski, with a pair of wins and a sixth-place showing through three Chase races, that finds himself leading the pack. But he’s not willing to play the role of championship favorite just yet.

“I can’t state loudly enough how much longer this (Chase) battle is,” Keselowski said. “It’s very tempting, whether it’s the media or the teams themselves, to get in a comfort zone of saying, ‘Such and such has control of this Chase.’ But there’s a reason why it’s 10 rounds. We’re not even halfway. We’re three rounds in.

“By no means do I feel like we’re the favorite. Certainly we’re not the underdog probably at this point.

“My perspective is we got a lot more racing to go. Let’s just let the racing play out and go from there.”


by Matt Taliaferro
Follow Matt on Twitter: @MattTaliaferro

 

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2012

COMMENTS

Backseat Drivers Fan Council

Grading FOX and Dover; Cutting the NASCAR schedule

Television, the Cup schedule and the quality of racing in the Sprint Cup Series. Those topics will get NASCAR fans talking. Members of the Backseat Drivers Fan Council had much to ponder as they were asked about those topics this week.

They judged FOX’s broadcasts of Sprint Cup races with the network’s season ending at Dover. They were asked what four races they would cut from the Cup schedule in light of Rusty Wallace’s recent suggestion that such a move would be beneficial. And Fan Council members graded the Dover race.

There was much for Fan Council members to say this week and, as always, they did.


RATE FOX’S BROADCAST OF CUP RACES
Last Sunday’s race at Dover marked the final Cup race of the season for FOX (TNT takes over beginning this weekend at Pocono for the next six races). Fan Council members were asked to grade Fox on its coverage of Cup races this season.

34.1 percent called it Good
28.0 percent called it Fair
19.0 percent called it Great
19.0 percent called it Poor

What Fan Council members said:
• One of these days they will realize there is a race going in the background of everything they think is important.

• Not crazy over the Michael Waltrip addition and will miss Dick Berggren. DW and Mike Joy are the best in the business.

• Bringing in Michael Waltrip was a step back. The ticker on the side of the screen during green flag pit stops is brilliant, especially with the trend right now of long green runs.

• Too many back-stories read from scripts. Too many isolation shots to promote a sponsor. Side-by-Side commercials are worthless as they don't show racing — who wants to watch the vacant straightaway from the leader’s roof cam? Too many times the producer switched camera views from what Mike Joy was talking about, or (was) too slow to switch to the trouble that Mike Joy was talking about.

• I came to know NASCAR through the FOX broadcast. All of the people who work those broadcasts know racing better than anyone else and they make it easy to learn about the sport. I sure do miss them when they leave, but I still turn to Speed Channel to keep informed.

• I thought the coverage over the last couple years has been OK. Not as good as it once was. Messed up camera shots. Missing some action. I liked the commentators’ reviews during the race of how they are seeing the race so far and their guesses for who might win the race, although the background music during that feature was lame. It was cool seeing the numbers of the cars on the right of the screen of those that were on pit road during the race, but even with that, I think the other networks have better technology they show during the races.

• Mike Joy is simply the best play-by-play man in auto racing today and a future Hall-of-Famer. He is professional, informative and entertaining. I also like DW’s commentary work. I do have a problem with Michael Waltrip being part of the broadcast as a current owner — I think it gives him undue opportunity to add value to his sponsorships with plugs that other owners do not get.

• They have the best and the worst on-air talent. I won't say which is which, but FOX definitely gets the bonehead move of the season by hiring the brother of the worst announcer that they have. I can't wait for the next coverage team.

• FOX had some good moments but never great. By and large their coverage missed the mark. Their commentators, especially DW, leave a lot to be desired. They need more professionalism and polish. I don't agree with having a team owner as an analyst, either. Too much conflict of interest.

• I think each season we fuss about the current broadcast partner and anticipate the next broadcast partner. They all must "pay the bills" by showing commercials. There is no way around it!

• Some good camera shots when not obsessed with the in-car camera. Far too many commercials. The broadcasters act like the fans know nothing and have to constantly explain the simplest concepts. Do football analysts constantly explain that you have four chances to go 10 yards? No, they never mention it.

• I expect a lot of the FOX broadcasts. In the past, the FOX broadcasts were my favorite of the season. I enjoy the quality at the desk and on the track. Typically, I am depressed when their stint is over. That is not the case this season. The production values were good, though not great. The camera crew seemed to miss a lot this season. The broadcast booth always suffers from Larry Mac and continued to do so this year. The racing has been boring and the booth has been tasked with livening up a comatose product. While that is a terribly difficult task, Mike Joy and DW should be up to the task — they weren't. And then there's the Hollywood Hotel. What a travesty!!!! Michael Waltrip and Chris Meyers are a nightmare. The constant race breaks in which Meyers and Waltrip blithely babble are distracting and aggravating. Michael Waltrip does not add to the broadcast.

• While I think Darrell Waltrip can be corny at times, I really like Michael Waltrip and Chris Meyers.

• I prefer the FOX crew. More knowledge & less arrogant.

• Atrocious camera work, ill-timed commercials, endless booth blather. I will miss Mike Joy for the rest of the year, but that's about it. Well, FOX did finally get rid of Digger, so that's another positive.

• I think FOX always does a great job. At times, some of the commentators can be annoying, but Mike Joy and Larry Mac are the best in the business. Their knowledge brings much to the race.


WHAT FOUR RACES WOULD YOU DUMP FROM THE CUP SCHEDULE?
Hall of Fame inductee Rusty Wallace recently said that it would be good to cut the Cup schedule from 36 to 32 races, noting there’s “too much supply and not enough demand.” Fan Council members were asked what four races they would cut from the current Cup schedule:

The top four chosen (including ties):

47.8 percent selected the August Pocono race
38.6 percent selected Auto Club Speedway’s race
29.7 percent selected the June Pocono race
29.7 percent selected the August Michigan race
29.7 percent selected the April Kansas race


The rest of the order:

25.3 percent Kansas Chase race
17.3 percent
July New Hampshire race
16.1 percent
Chicagoland Speedway Chase race
15.7 percent
Kentucky race
14.5 percent
Sonoma race
14.5 percent
Dover Chase race
14.1 percent
June Michigan race
12.4 percent
New Hampshire Chase race
11.2 percent
March Phoenix race
10.8 percent
April Texas race
10.4 percent
Watkins Glen race
8.0 percent
June Dover race
7.6 percent
Phoenix Chase race
7.6 percent
Texas Chase race
6.4 percent
Indianapolis race
6.4 percent
Homestead race
6.0 percent
Talladega Chase race
5.6 percent
May Talladega race
4.8 percent
July Daytona race
4.0 percent
Charlotte Chase race
3.6 percent
Las Vegas race
3.6 percent
March Bristol race
2.8 percent
Atlanta race
2.4 percent —
April Richmond race
2.0 percent
Daytona 500
2.0 percent
April Martinsville race
2.0 percent —
September Richmond race
1.6 percent
Coca-Cola 600
1.2 percent
Martinsville Chase race
0.4 percent
Southern 500
0.4 percent — August Bristol race

What Fan Council members said:
• Pocono, New Hampshire, Kansas and Texas don't need two races per season. Removing New Hampshire, Kansas and Texas in the Chase moves Richmond, Atlanta and Bristol into the Chase. Sounds fantastic even though I think 36 races is good enough.

• Tough choice, no matter how pissed off I get over some of the racing, more is still better than less.

• I would not cut (the schedule) down. The problem isn’t a lack of demand, but most likely the cost of attendance. While the seat prices may not be that awful, the cost of staying in the area overnight is absurd! Hotel prices should not be affected by a race in town. While I never miss watching a race on TV, I personally just can't afford the cost to attend. If this were not a factor, I would attend several races a year. Honestly, I can't say that any of these should be removed from the schedule.

• I get Rusty's point but I can't find four races I would like to cut. Perhaps one of the Pocono and Michigan races, but that's about it.

• I disagree with Rusty. I would still eliminate California (Auto Club Speedway), a Pocono race, a Michigan race and a Kansas race. But I would replace them with a race at Road America, a race at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, go to Darlington a second time and have a race at Iowa (after expanding the seating). December, January and February are the longest months of the year with no NASCAR! The more racing, the better!

• Unless a track is in the Southeast, it shouldn't get two dates. Especially Pocono and Michigan, which have awful races — they shouldn't get a second race within six weeks of the first race. That is perhaps the biggest problem with NASCAR's scheduling. Rusty is right about this. Did you notice that there were more empty seats at Dover than filled seats? Couldn't blame it on the weather, either...

• I had a hard time picking a fourth race. Easily, Pocono, Loudon and Kansas should lose a date. I finally picked Dover as my fourth because attendance there has been pretty bad the last few races.

• Not a fair question. Everyone is going to pick Pocono and California. And maybe Kansas or another mile-and-a-half track. Fans think they're boring, but reality is they just don't make for good TV. Besides, Rusty has always had opinions about everything and they're simply his opinion. His induction doesn't suddenly mean that he has become a wise sage. This is the same person who, a couple of days ago, said, “If he can keep those other cats behind him he can win.” There are too many factors that have led to lower attendance: gas prices, ticket prices, hotel prices, children's activities, vacation time... Cutting races also means cutting a large portion of the revenue for the tracks, local establishments and income for the workers (both track employees and temp workers) — this would cause more tracks to close. How is that good for the sport? Let's not forget that it’s also no longer acceptable to take children out of school to attend a race. Some people have less vacation time and days off, as well.

• I think any discussion of cutting races from the schedule is a waste of time because I think it's very, very unlikely to happen. Tracks, teams, sponsors, the sport and broadcast partners have contracts and commitments that revolve around a 36-race schedule with deals in place for years into the future.

• Cutting Auto Club Speedway's race is a no-brainer. Chicagoland won't be missed, either. Kansas and Pocono need to be cut back to one race only.

• I LOVE the length of the season, and actually (would) like to see it extended.

GRADE SUNDAY’S CUP RACE AT DOVER

59.3 percent called it Good
21.8 percent called it Fair
15.3 percent called it Great
3.6 percent called it Poor

What Fan Council members said:
• I love Dover. It's like Bristol on steroids. I love that it always has action (even when one driver kinda stinks it up, thanks JJ:)). When there are long green-flag runs, there is still action everywhere.

• Finally a wreck! I don’t watch for the wrecks, but what causes most wrecks? Good hard racing, and that’s what caused the big one. If the 48 weren’t so good it would have been a great race. But overall it was pretty good for Dover standards.

• Is it me or are the races so darn boring this season? Yes, sadly, the 13-car crash was exciting but it took out so many drivers (including my fav) that I was ready to turn the TV off.

• Oddly enough, the cautions did make it more interesting. Wish I didn't think that, but it's true.

• This was probably one of the best races this season. It had a little bit of everything. Wasn't happy to see the big one at the beginning of the race that took out too many cars. I loved seeing some passing and lead changes.

• This race had a little bit of everything in it. Even though my driver was taken out early I still enjoyed the strategy calls and the side-by-side racing.

• As a 48 fan I was pleased by the outcome of the race, but found the racing boring. There were occasional challenges for the lead, but the 48 car was just too strong. While there were cautions, it felt as though there were long green-flag runs. The race was boring, but Dover races have often been boring to me. This race will not affect my desire to watch a race at Dover, because I don't expect much from the racing at this track.

• The race had a little bit of everything — wrecks, side-by-side racing, cautions and long green runs. The cautions at the end made it interesting. It wasn't edge-of-your-seat racing but it was good.


The Backseat Drivers Fan Council was founded and is administered by Dustin Long. Fans can join by sending Dustin an email at dustinlong002@gmail.com.

Please include the following information:
Name, city, state, Twitter name, e-mail address and favorite driver.


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2012

COMMENTS

Pennell’s Picks: Fantasy NASCAR Trends at Dover

Jay Pennell looks at favorites and darkhorses for Sunday's FedEx 400

The two-week homestretch in Charlotte is now in the books and the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the Monster Mile in Dover, Del., for Sunday’s FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks.

Not only is Dover one of the most demanding tracks on the NASCAR schedule, it also kicks off the seven-week summer stretch that takes the series to the newly-repaved tracks of Pocono and Michigan, the road course in Sonoma, night races at Kentucky and Daytona, then to New Hampshire before another break in the action.

Teams will be looking to build momentum towards the Chase for the Sprint Cup during this time. Some will try to maintain their spot in the top 10 in points, while those just on the outside will be looking to claw their way in.

At the same time, for those well outside the top 10, the name of the game is “Win, Win, Win.” The Wild Card aspect of the Chase will play a major role in the coming weeks as drivers and teams look to win their way into a spot in the championship battle.

First, those teams will have to conquer the Monster and survive Sunday's 400 miles around the high-banked concrete oval — which is no simple task … unless you drive with the Roush Fenway brigade.

The Roush cars have been stellar at Dover over the past 10 years, scoring six wins in that time. Current drivers Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth have all been to Victory Lane at Dover and enter the weekend as the organization to beat.

Kenseth, who sits second in points to Biffle, he is the defending race winner, and this week's fantasy favorite. All told, Kenseth has two wins, 12 top 5s and 17 top 10s in 26 Dover starts, giving him the second-best driver rating at the one-mile oval.

Not only does Kenseth have a stellar record at Dover, he describes the demanding track as his favorite on the schedule.

“The track is so fast and challenging, and it’s unique because of the way you drive up out of the turns,” Kenseth says. “The turns sit a bit lower than the straightaways and you can feel it when you’re driving out there.”

Dover is the type of track that suits Kenseth’s driving style, so look for him to surpass Biffle in the points while scoring his second win of the season.

While Biffle has maintained his points lead since the third race of the year, Kenseth, Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are steadily cutting into that lead.

One of the most consistent drivers this season, Biffle has bounced between finishes inside the top 5 and outside the top 10 week-to-week, of late. Following a fifth-place finish at Kansas, Biffle was 18th at Richmond. Then came a fifth at Talladega, followed by a 12th at Darlington, then a fourth in last Sunday's Coca-Cola 600.

While this trend might pass at such a strong track for Biffle, it is definitely worth keeping in the back of your head when setting your lineup.

Edwards has struggled to back up his near-championship run of 2011 through the first 12 races of the 2012 season. The Missouri native has one win at Dover and is coming off a ninth-place finish in Charlotte and is on a run of seven finishes of 11th or better in the last eight races.

What is striking about Edwards’ season, however, is he has led in only two races — one lap at Kansas and 206 at Richmond. In last year's races at Dover, Edwards led a combined 233 circuits, so look for him to produce when it comes time on Sunday.

Given the success of the Roush organization this season (and at Dover), it is very likely we could se a reply of the Sept. 2008 event in which Biffle, Kenseth and Edwards battled lap after lap for the win and swept the top-3 spots.

While the Roush cars may consistently be among the best, they will have to contend with six-time Dover winner Jimmie Johnson. The five-time series champion has the second-best average finish (9.3) at the Monster Mile, the series-best average running position (7.9), as well as the series-best driver rating, fastest laps run, average green flag speed and laps in the top 15. Not too shabby.

To boot, Johnson has been on quite the roll of late. His win at Darlington gave team owner Rick Hendrick his 200th career Cup win, his pit crew won the Sprint Pit Crew Challenge during All-Star week, he scored his third All-Star Race victory in Charlotte, and was in contention in the Coca-Cola 600 until a botched pit stop late in the race.

Heading to one of his best tracks on the circuit, Johnson will be looking to tie Bobby Allison and Richard Petty for the all-time winningest drivers at Dover. If his Chad Knaus-led pit crew can keep its composure and execute without mistakes, Johnson will factor.

Five Favorites: Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch 

 

Who would have ever thought four-time series champion Jeff Gordon would become that dreaded “fourth car” at Hendrick Motorsports? It seems each year, one of Hendrick’s four teams struggle to keep pace despite the resources, equipment and all-around talent. 
 
Now in his 20th season in the Sprint Cup Series, Gordon has become “that” driver within the organization struggling to keep pace. After the first 12 races of the season, Gordon is 22nd in the standings with only one top 5 and three top 10s.
 
Yet, throughout the season, the No. 24 team has shown up with fast cars and solid outings. The problem for this group has not been bad performances, but bad luck. This weekend at Dover, I expect that luck to turn around. 
 
While Gordon has four Dover wins on his resume, his last top-10 finish there came in 2009. Although the results have not been spectacular, he has only one finish outside the top 20 (a 26th in 2009) in his last 12 Dover starts. 
 
Gordon has remained confident in his team's ability throughout these trying times, finding solace in their fast racecars. 
 
“We are a good team and we’re just having some bad stuff happen,” he said. “And we’re being tested and I hope there is a reason why we’re being tested that’s going to make us stronger because of it; and that we do recover and get out of it and learn from it.”
 
Gordon is the type of driver that can gain momentum and start contending for wins week-in and week-out, and following a seventh-place finish in Charlotte, the momentum may be starting to build.
 
Five Undervalued Picks: Jeff Gordon, Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick
 
Another driver that has been snake-bit this year is Penske Racing's AJ Allmendinger. Despite having solid equipment, problems have cost Allmendinger from scoring the results many expected when he was named Kurt Busch’s replacement in the No. 22 Dodge. 
 
In 2010, he led 143 laps at Dover before finishing a disappointing 10th after a flat tire ruined his day. Last year, Allmendinger had a solid car, started on the outside of the front row, but suffered an engine failure that resulted in a 37th-place finish. In the fall Chase race, he started seventh and finished seventh. 
 
Also keep in mind that Allmendinger was part of the Goodyear tire test held at Dover in April. 
 
“To me, I just show up to the race track and I am excited to be there,” he said. “I just genuinely like the race track and think when you are able to do that you can go there and have a good attitude about it and be pretty fast.”
 
Five Darkhorse Picks: A.J. Allmendinger, Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, Jeff Burton, Kurt Busch
 
Just like any track on the schedule these days, track position will be paramount during Sunday's 400-miler. Look for pit strategy to come into play as the trend of long green-flag runs should continue. The team that can manage the race from start to finish, stay on top of making changes throughout the afternoon and keep the car full of fuel to the end will be the one celebrating in Victory Lane. 
 
Best Average Finish at Dover (Wins):
1. Carl Edwards — 7.3 (1)
2. Jimmie Johnson  9.2 (6)
3. Ryan Newman  11.5 (3)
4. Jeff Gordon  12.2 (4)
5. Matt Kenseth  12.2 (2)
6. Greg Biffle  12.3 (2)
7. Mark Martin  12.4 (4)
8. Tony Stewart  13.0 (2)
9. Kyle Busch  13.3 (2)
10. Clint Bowyer  14.2 (0)
 
by Jay Pennell
Follow Jay on Twitter: @JayWPennell
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2012

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Horsepower Rankings

by Matt Taliaferro

1. Jimmie Johnson  Attention race fans: Do not count Jimmie Johnson out of the Chase until he is mathematically eliminated (which probably will not happen). Thank you. That is all.

2. Carl Edwards  The preseason favorite to unseat Johnson had a quiet regular season but has pieced together six straight top 10s — including runs of fourth, eighth and third in the Chase — to tie for the points lead.

3. Tony Stewart  Stewart seemed resigned to the fact that Dover would be unkind ... and it was. Expect the team to regroup at Kansas, where Stewart has two wins and was eighth earlier this season.

4. Jeff Gordon  Gordon came into the Chase hot, but has cooled with finishes of 12th and 24th sandwiching a fourth-place run. You have to figure his No. 24 team will get it together, but the performance bears watching.

5. Brad Keselowski  The eight-week breakout run Keselowski enjoyed — which may be the story of the year in the sport — comes to an end. However, this team’s strength remains that it doesn’t know it shouldn’t be here.

6. Kevin Harvick  Clinging to the points lead thanks to his four regular season wins and top-12 finishes. Still, Harvick seems to be lacking some of the mojo that got him here. Maybe he should pick a fight with Kyle Busch.

7. Matt Kenseth  Running out of fuel in the Chase’s first race at Chicago may come back to haunt Kenseth, who had one of the best cars there. The result was a 21st, with fifth- and sixth-place runs since.

8. Kurt Busch   Busch throws his hat back into the championship hunt with an impressive — and somewhat unexpected — win in Dover over Johnson, who he described as his “arch-nemesis.”

9. Kyle Busch  A sixth at Dover helped his cause after subpar 22nd- and 11th-place showings. Leading laps is Kyle’s calling card, but he hasn’t done that since the onset of the Chase.

10. Ryan Newman   There’s quite a gap between ninth and 10th on the list. Newman is sliding down the rankings thanks to 25th- and 23rd-place runs which have deep-sixed his Chase chances.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.  That third-place run to open the Chase is proving to be the fuel-mileage fluke we believed it to be.

12. Clint Bowyer  If he expects to run better at Michael Waltrip Racing next season he needs to think again.

13. AJ Allmendinger  Back to his seventh- to 12th-place ways after a couple of down weeks.

14. Denny Hamlin  Averaged an eighth-place finish in the three races prior to the Chase. Averaging a 26th-place finish in it.

15. Greg Biffle   If a non-Chaser is to win a Chase race, Biffle may be that guy at Kansas.

Just off the lead pack: Marcos Ambrose, Kasey Kahne, Mark Martin, David Ragan, Martin Truex Jr.
 

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Dover International Speedway

by Matt Taliaferro and Nathan Rush

Race: AAA 400
Location: Dover, Del.
TV: ESPN (2:00 p.m. EST)
May Winner: Ryan Newman

Specs: 1-mile oval; Banking/Turns: 24°; Banking/Straightaways: 9°
Race Length: 400 miles/400 laps
Track Qualifying Record: 161.522 mph (Jeremy Mayfield, 2004)
Race Record: 132.719 mph (Mark Martin, 1997)


From the Spotter’s Stand
Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson combined to lead 324 of the first 364 laps and were poised for a late-race showdown with late-comer Clint Bowyer in May. However, a late-race caution punctuated what was an otherwise staid event and pit strategy turned the field — and the results — upside down.

Bowyer, Edwards and Johnson took the time to take four fresh tires during the caution, while Mark Martin stayed out to inherit the lead. Meanwhile, a slew of teams elected to put on only two tires, including the No. 17 of Matt Kenseth, who led the pack off pit road.

And just as the Southern 500 the week prior proved that track position trumped fresh Goodyears, the FedEx 400 solidified it, as Martin and Kenseth sprinted away, while those who dominated the race remained mired in heavy traffic. By the time Kenseth slipped under Martin, only 31 laps remained on the fast, one-mile oval, and he ran away uncontested for a 2.122-second victory, his second career win at Dover.

Jimmie Johnson has been rock solid at the concrete 1-mile oval in Dover, and last year was no different. The 48 dominated for the sixth time at “The Monster Mile” — and for the third time in four races — by starting at the pole, leading a race-high 191 laps and taking the checkers by a 2.637-second margin over runner-up Jeff Burton in the second race of the Chase.

Earlier in 2010, Johnson led 225 laps but could not hold it together after being busted for speeding on pit road while going mano a mano with wild child and eventual winner Kyle Busch. Rowdy led 131 laps before raising the “Miles the Monster” trophy in Victory Lane for the second time in his career.


Crew Chief’s Take
“Dover is an all-concrete track and is banked all the way around; even the straights have nine degrees of banking. Therefore, right-side tire management is a race-long concern. Dover provides drivers with multiple grooves from which to choose, but normally, the best cars are the ones that will run the low line around the track. The transitions from turns to straights are unique. Drivers call it ‘falling down’ in the turns. Back in the 1990s, it was asphalt, but it was so rough it was more like a gravel road. Concrete has its pluses and minuses, but it made this track a lot better.”

Fantasy Stall
Looking at Checkers:
It’s hard to overlook Jimmie Johnson’s six wins at Dover.
Pretty Solid Pick: Mark Martin has made no secret of his love of Dover. His four wins are proof of it.
Good Sleeper Pick: Guys turn it up a notch when racing at their home track, and this is Martin Truex’s turf.
Runs on Seven Cylinders: Juan Pablo Montoya has led only five of the 3,415 laps he’s completed at Dover.
Insider Tip: Trouble happens quick here. Having a good qualifier who stays up front is a bonus.


Classic Moments at Dover
Proving his shocking win in the Daytona 500 earlier in the season was no fluke, Derrike Cope leads 93 laps and wins the 1990 Budweiser 500 in Dover.

Cope shoots to the lead by lap 160, but a miscalculation by his crew chief causes his No. 10 Purolator Chevy to run out of gas while pacing the field, dropping him off the lead lap.

Cope has a strong car, though, and races his way back onto the lead lap (without the aid of Lucky Dogs or wave-arounds). A fast pit stop under a lap 421 caution bumps him up to second, and on lap 446, he passes Rusty Wallace, who leads 131 laps in the Miller Genuine Draft Pontiac, for the lead. From there, Cope holds off Ken Schrader to earn his second, and final, career victory.
 


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