Kevin Harvick (ASP, Inc.)

A week of pomp and circumstance is nearly over in Daytona. On the eve of NASCAR’s most prestigious race, the Daytona 500, Cup cars roar around the historic 2.5-mile superspeedway in the final practice session of the week — known as Happy Hour — looking for that last little bit of speed. Or handling. Or integrity. Or answers of some sort.

Kevin Harvick has been the week’s big winner thus far, posting wins in the Sprint Unlimited exhibition race last Saturday and his qualifying Duel 150 on Thursday. But he hasn’t been the week’s big story. Danica Patrick cornered the publicity market on Sunday, when she won the pole for the 500 and became the talk of American motorsports — or more accurately, the face that NASCAR’s marketing machine has been all-too-happy to advertise to the public.

“Can I win? Yeah, absolutely,” Patrick proclaimed. “I feel comfortable in this kind of race situation; I feel comfortable in the draft; speeds are not a problem.”

A bold statement indeed, if not a bit naïve.

Danica was not just a big story for nearly five days, she was the story, as rash claims and inflated tails of hope ran amok, the sport bathing itself in Danica-mania.

That said, it was only after Patrick was assured of the point that FOX sold out its commercial space for the 500, so from a financial standpoint at least, the hype is warranted.

The adoration tempered a bit on Thursday, when the Budweiser Duels set the field for Sunday’s race. Actual cars on the track, actual competition, and actual winners gave all a much-needed change of focus.

Meanwhile, traditional heavy-hitters have skirted under the radar, seemingly content to let a hungry media focus on the week’s trendy topic while they go about the business of figuring out a new car. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been as invisible as Dale Earnhardt Jr. can be. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin … nary a word. It took Brad Keselowski giving what NASCAR deemed a “we need to talk, son” interview with USA Today to get the defending champ some serious pub.

With that in mind, it’s well past time to seriously examine which drivers have a realistic shot at winning stock car racing’s most celebrated race. When the engines fire at 1:19 pm EST on Sunday, the media-run of the prior week, the pomp and circumstance of a marketing-driven sport, will fall prey to the reality of performance.

Kevin Harvick
The aforementioned Harvick has a sterling record thus far in 2013, though points aren’t paid until Sunday. Harvick has been the pied piper of the low groove that most have been unwilling (or unable) to utilize. He has dexterously maneuvered through the field on two occasions, finding the point and holding off all comers.

“I think it's a matter of how you came down here with the balance of your race car,” Harvick said after his Duel triumph. “Gil (Martin, crew chief) and I talked about what we thought we needed coming down here after the (January) test, went a particular direction. It's worked out for us.”

Don’t be misled — Harvick’s deftness in the draft has worked to his advantage, as well. And should again on Sunday. However, no driver has come to Daytona and pulled the trifecta — winning the Unlimited, a Duel and the 500 in the same season. But this team seems primed.

“You're going to have multiple pit stops and you're going to have to change fours tires at some particular point,” Harvick says. “You're going to see the field get mixed up because people are going to be on varying strategies.

Advantage: Harvick.

Tony Stewart
Despite Harvick’s excellence, no driver is a more popular pick for Sunday than Tony Stewart.

Confident to the point that he sat out Happy Hour on Saturday, Stewart has displayed a calm swagger throughout Speedweeks even though he has yet to finish among the top 3 in … well, anything.

Still, his Stewart-Haas Racing team appear ahead of the curve with the new car, showing impressive speed. And apparently he’s found the feel.

“I’m really happy with my car,” Stewart said after Saturday’s second practice session. “I got out and looked at Steve Addington (crew chief) and he’s like, ‘I’m content if you are.’ And I’m like, ‘I don’t know what else to ask for with the car.’

“It’s a good scenario — there’s not a scratch on it and it’s ready to race. It’s a position that I don’t know we’ve ever been in — I think we’ve always run final practice.”

Shut out in 14 attempts in the Daytona 500, Stewart hasn’t quite reached a Dale Earnhardt-esque frustration level, but at the moment, this race tops his career bucketlist.

The pieces are in place for a win, but the 500 is wrought with pitfalls.

Matt Kenseth
Kenseth makes any list of favorites on his 2012 plate brilliance alone. The winner of two of the last four 500s, Joe Gibbs Racing’s heir to the coveted No. 20 averaged a 2.0-place finish on the plate tracks last season.

The Wisconsin native was racy in the Unlimited, leading 26 laps, and was running second late in his Duel before being shuffled to fifth at the finish. Kenseth’s big problem throughout Speedweeks hasn’t been speed or handling, but a lack of dancing partners. One would think with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch serving as teammates, he’d have plenty of help. But more often than not, he’s been the man overtaken with a lack of help than the driver doing the passing when the money’s been on the line.

Like Stewart, Kenseth passed on Happy Hour, which speaks to the strength and confidence of his bunch. Ever the silent assassin, this is the guy who could very well spoil Harvick’s and Stewart’s fun.
 

Kasey Kahne (ASP, Inc.)

Hendrick’s 5/24 Shop
Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne have been the stronger of the two shops on the Hendrick campus during Speedweeks.

Gordon and crew chief Alan Gustafson have been working on speed and drivability throughout the week, and for as strong as they’ve been, aren’t 100 percent sure what to expect on Sunday. Still, they elected to skip Happy Hour — most likely because they wanted to dodge any potential bullets.

“How is your car leading, how is your car on the top; in the back? That’s what you have to work on,” Gustafson said. “We feel fairly comfortable but you can’t get it completely worked out until you get in the race.”

But have they found that “it”?

“We’re close,” said Gustafson. “It’s going to be a moving target — you still don’t know the weather conditions tomorrow or what situation you’ll be put in (on the track). But we have a very good opportunity to succeed.”

Kahne has been equally fast, and played the role of Gordon’s wingman well in the Duel. When Gordon was penalized for speeding, Kahne did the work himself, powering by a strong Kenseth to finish second.

“Our car has been pretty fast, but we’ve run in smaller packs in practice to not tear it up,” Kahne’s crew chief, Kenny Francis, said. “It’s harder to tell what you’ve got in those packs, but we’re happy with the way it ran in the 150, so we’re basing everything off that.”

Don’t let Gustafson or Francis fool you. The 24 is as strong at Daytona this season as it’s been in some time, and Kahne may have as much pure power as anyone.

Kyle Busch
Busch is a charger, which can work both to his advantage and his detriment on a plate track. And he just may have learned a thing or two by competing in the Truck Series race on Friday, in relation to putting runs together on the top and bottom lanes.

As for the car, crew chief Dave Rogers says, “Kyle’s really happy with his 500 car. We didn’t go out in Happy Hour because there was no reason to — not because we’re worried about tearing something up.”

Always the wild card, it is assured Busch will make his presence felt. Can he control the aggression that trips up so many at Daytona? If so, he’s in the conversation.

Photo by ASP, Inc.

The Daytona 500 is an event that transcends its own sport, much the same as the Super Bowl, the World Series or the Masters. Over the last 54 years, a lot of history has been made just off the beach (and just on it) on Daytona International Speedway's 2.5-miles of asphalt. The following is a look at the numbers, facts and figures of NASCAR's biggest race.

NASCAR’s Super Bowl Explosion
Winner’s Share In The First Daytona 500 (1959): $19,050 (Lee Petty)
Winner’s Share In Last Year’s Daytona 500 (2012): $1,588,887 (Matt Kenseth)
Full Purse, first Daytona 500 (59 starters): $67,760
Full Purse, 54th Daytona 500 (43 starters): $17,277,409
Last-place share in 1959: Ken Marriott, 59th place, $100
Last-place share in 2012: David Ragan 43rd place, $267,637
Average income, Middle-Class American: $41,560 per year
(Source: http://bber.unm.edu/econ/us-pci.htm) -- U.S. Dept. Of Commerce)

This 500 … Brought to You by the Number Six
The big buzzword you’ve hear throughout Speedweeks sounds more like an education initiative than a race car. But “Gen-6” is NASCAR’s biggest change this decade, a new chassis type rolling out in 2013 designed to win back fans through a sleeker, “stock” look that make the Ford Fusions, Chevy SS models, and Toyota Camrys more like what you’d see on the street.

“The collaborative efforts between the manufacturers, teams, and NASCAR has been unparalleled in my 34 years in the sport,” crowed Robin Pemberton last month on the Gen-6’s pending Daytona debut.

Translation? NASCAR learned from the dreadful Car of Tomorrow communication debacle, where even CEO Brian France admitted recently “we made some errors” in a model that was highly criticized. This time, they’ve kept everyone from your low-level crewman, to tire specialist, to car owner, to their top R&D engineers on the same page in developing a car they believe will come out competitive.

Tandem Drafting No More
It’s the Valentine Day’s breakup even Cupid is privately cheering. In January testing, “Gen-6” hated being paired up, with even the slightest two-car bumpdraft causing instability to the point it just won’t happen in the 500. Even plate expert Dale Earnhardt Jr. started a 12-car wreck in testing by trying to lightly push Marcos Ambrose in the turns. The Sprint Unlimited witnessed the same thing, as a six-car wreck decimated the field just 15 laps into the event.

“I’m anticipating handling is going to be a little bit more of a premium than what we’ve had in the past,” says Jeff Gordon, pointing to less downforce in the rear of the car. Others claim the new drafting package is similar to what NASCAR had a decade ago, where drivers laid back to “set up” their slingshot moves inside a large pack.

A Guaranteed Photo Finish?
Say what you will about restrictor plates, first bolted onto the cars in 1988 at Daytona as a safety measure to keep fans and drivers safe. But one thing you can’t argue is that horsepower-sucking piece of metal virtually guarantees “close” finishes. 24 of the last 25 Daytona 500s, since the inception of this “plate” era have produced a margin of victory equaling roughly two car lengths or less. Only Darrell Waltrip’s fuel-mileage gamble, in 1989, was the exception to the rule (Waltrip won by a “comfortable” 7.64 seconds over Ken Schrader). No other sports’ premier event has such a track record of razor-close endings.

Can Kyle Busch break through for Toyota? (ASP, Inc.)

Daytona: Toyota’s Achilles’ Heel
As the first foreign automaker to win in NASCAR’s Cup level since Jaguar in 1954, the Toyota Camry has been competitive at NASCAR’s top level. But when it comes to the Triple Crown of success on which each car is judged — drivers’ championship, manufacturers’ title and the Daytona 500 — Toyota has fallen short. The Great American Race, in particular, has been a Great American Debacle for the Toyota camp.

In its first year on the circuit, two-time 500 winner Michael Waltrip’s team was nearly expelled from the track for attempting to put jet fuel inside the engine of his NAPA Toyota. While Toyota has improved dramatically since, even winning the summer race here with Kyle Busch in 2008, it’s done no better than third in February.

The “Intimidator” Curse: From Zero To Hero?
Even casual sports fans remember Dale Earnhardt’s “reverse of the curse,” winning the 1998 Daytona 500 after 20 years’ worth of black cats, broken mirrors, cut tires and virtually every type of hard-luck story imaginable. In the 15 years since, no superstar has quite matched Big E’s legendary levels of frustration but there are plenty of drivers looking to break an “0-for” in the sport’s biggest race. Here’s a look:

Mark Martin
500 Record: 0-for-28
The Lowdown: 40 career wins, 55 poles, over 12,700 laps led. At 54 years old and a freee agent at season’s end, could this be Martin’s last great shot?
Best 500 Finish: 2nd, 2007
Best Shot Thus Far: The sport’s best supporting actor with five runner-up finishes in the point standings had a similar “oh so close” moment at Daytona six years ago. Leading 26 laps in a Herculean effort with an organization that would go broke six months later, he was leading entering the final lap. But as a melee broke out behind him off Turn 4, Martin slowed ever so slightly, anticipating a caution that never came. Kevin Harvick slid by for the victory in the closest finish in Daytona 500 history and left Martin’s beach dreams adrift in the tide. The veteran has been no better than 10th since.

Tony Stewart
500 Record: 0-for-14
The Lowdown: 47 wins in exactly 500 series starts, three Cup titles and wins at all but two tracks currently on the circuit (Darlington and Kentucky).
Best 500 Finish: 2nd, 2004
Best Shot Thus Far: With nearly 300 laps led in the 500, no modern driver in NASCAR matches more with Earnhardt’s tales of woe. The lowest of the low came in 2007-08. The first year, Stewart was arguably the fastest car until being caught up in a wreck with rival Kurt Busch while cruising in formation well ahead of the field. Then, he had the trophy in sight entering the last lap in ’08, only for he and Toyota teammate Kyle Busch to get drafted past by Ryan Newman and (again) Busch.

Jeff Burton
500 Record: 0-for-19
The Lowdown: 21 Cup wins, four top-5 points finishes
Bes 500 Finish: 2nd, 2000
Best Shot Thus Far: Burton, who didn’t even lead a lap in the big race until his ninth start (2002) has finished 24th or worse in the 500 nine times. But if there’s a darkhorse for the race, he could be it: both of Burton’s top-5 finishes in 2012 came at Daytona and teammate Kevin Harvick showed the muscled to win last weekend’s Sprint Unlimited.

Other Notables Seeking Redemption: Bobby Labonte (0-for-20), Kurt Busch (0-for-12), Greg Biffle (0-for-10), Kasey Kahne (0-for-9), Carl Edwards (0-for-8, won last year’s 500 pole), Kyle Busch (0-for-8), Denny Hamlin (0-for-7), Clint Bowyer (0-for-7).

Crash And Burn? Daytona’s “Big One” Looms
With plate racing keeping most cars locked together in close quarters, the question of a major wreck in the 500 is not a case of “if” but “when.” Here’s a look at the multi-car incidents that have most affected the race:

1992: Leaders Bill Elliott, Sterling Marlin and Ernie Irvan go three-wide before Irvan pushes it a bit too far. The 14-car wreck that ensues takes out almost all contenders, as well as Richard Petty in his last 500. Only five cars end the race on the lead lap.

1999: A 12-car wreck, started between teammates Kenny Irwin Jr. and Dale Jarrett wipes out the two-time 500 champ along with Sterling Marlin and Mark Martin.

2001: Overshadowed by Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death 25 laps later, a 19-car wreck saw Tony Stewart’s No. 20 flip wildly in what was almost another tragedy. Thankfully, no one came out hurt.

2002: An 18-car Demolition Derby incident on Lap 150 takes out Ken Schrader, who had led 46 laps at that point and considerably thins the field.

2009: As a lapped car, Dale Earnhardt Jr. tangles with Brian Vickers to start a 10-car melee that takes out a dominant Kyle Busch, who had led 88 of the first 123 laps of the race.

2011: Just 29 laps into the event, Michael Waltrip’s ill-timed bumpdraft wipes out 14 vehicles, including five-time defending Cup champ Jimmie Johnson.

Opposites Attract: Inside the List of 500 Champs
Youngest: Trevor Bayne, 20 years, one day (2011)
Oldest: Bobby Allison, 50 years, two months, 11 days (1988)
Fastest Average Speed: 177.602 mph (Buddy Baker, 1980)
Slowest Average Speed: 124.740 mph (Junior Johnson, 1960)
Best Starting Position: Pole, nine times (Fireball Roberts, 1962; Richard Petty, 1966; Cale Yarborough, 1968; Buddy Baker, 1980; Cale Yarborough, 1984; Bill Elliott, 1985 & ’87, Jeff Gordon, 1999; Dale Jarrett, 2000)
Worst Starting Position: 39th (Matt Kenseth, 2009)

Doubles and Triples
Three-Consecutive 500 Winners
1973-74: Richard Petty
1983-84: Cale Yarborough
1994-95: Sterling Marlin

Double Trouble (Daytona 500/Indy 500 Winners)
Mario Andretti (1967 Daytona, 1969 Indy), A.J. Foyt (1972 Daytona, four-time Indy winner)

Owners Chip Ganassi and Roger Penske have also accomplished the “double dip” feat, with Ganassi pulling an unprecedented Triple Crown: he captured Daytona, the Indy 500, and NASCAR’s Indy race (the Brickyard 400) all in the same 2010 season.

Daytona Mystique
"There have been other tracks that have separated the men from the boys. This is the track that will separate the brave from the weak after the boys are gone."
– Driver Jimmy Thompson on the first Daytona 500

Daytona: By the Numbers

0
Husband/wife driver combinations to compete in the 500. Of course, we only mention this because of that little Danica Patrick/Ricky Stenhouse Jr. relationship. Could we be seeing the pair change that in a couple years? Yeah, probably not.

1
Jet dryer explosion in 53 years of the race (Juan Pablo Montoya, 2012 – luckily no one was hurt.)

3
Father/son duos to win the 500 in just 53 events: Lee & Richard Petty, Bobby & Davey Allison, and the Earnhardts (Dale Sr. & Jr.)

8
The number of different manufacturers to win the 500: Chevy, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Ford, Plymouth, Mercury, Dodge and Buick.

12.8
The average number of laps led by the last six Daytona 500 winners, proving in this age of NASCAR parity the only lap that matters is the last one.

21
The number of Daytona 500 wins for Chevrolet, the most of any manufacturer. Ford, however, has won three of the last four (they’re second with 13 wins overall).

33
The highest number of Daytona 500 starts without a victory, held by Wisconsin’s Dave Marcis. The independent driver, famous for wearing his wingtip shoes in the cockpit, made 32 consecutive appearances from 1968-99, then retired after the 2002 Daytona race but never led more than three laps in any of them. (Best finish: 6th twice – 1975 & ’78)

55
Most Cup wins of any driver, all-time, without a Daytona 500 on their resume (Rusty Wallace). The 1989 Cup Series champ and a short track specialist, Wallace was never better than third in the big race. (Tony Stewart holds the record amongst active drivers, with 47.)

68
The record number of cars that started the 1960 Daytona 500; 39 finished the race. NASCAR adopted the current max of 43 cars in 1998.

210.364
The fastest pole speed, in miles per hour, recorded for the 500. Accomplished by Bill Elliott in 1987, the advent of the plates a year later have made attaining those speeds impossible. Experts estimate without the slowdown, NASCAR vehicles today could soar over 230 mph heading into Daytona’s high-banked turns.

273
The fewest miles run by any Daytona 500 winner in history. Michael Waltrip won the 2003 version of the race with just 109 of 200 laps complete after a drenching rainstorm cut the finish short.

463
Starts by Michael Waltrip before earning his first NASCAR Cup victory: the 2001 Daytona 500. It’s the longest anyone has raced in the sport’s top division before hitting Victory Lane.

by Tom Bowles
Follow Tom on Twitter: @NASCARBowles 

Setting the starting lineup for the Daytona 500 can be a trial of confusion for those that choose not to read the syllabus. And let’s be honest, that’s why you’re reading this, right? You want the CliffsNotes.

Fair enough. So allow me to explain this as painlessly as possible.