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Welcome to Fantasy Spin Cycle, AthlonSports.com’s new bi-weekly “cheat sheet” covering myriad topics in a quick-hitting style intended to help keep you in the game from the first pitch of the season to the final bubbly shower in October. On Mondays, we’ll review the hot players and the cold, the emergency free agents and timely cuts, and all the latest medical reports. On Fridays, we’ll examine the fantasy impact of the latest MLB transactions, break out some stimulating stats, turn an eye to keeper leagues, offer a few random thoughts and keep a close eye on closers.

July 3, 2009

Close Eye on Closers

Brian Fuentes has traditionally been regarded as a Tier-2 closer, but he’s a cinch to make the All-Star team — again. If he does, and neither Jonathan Papelbon nor Mariano Rivera do, the Angels lefty would be the only reliever to be invited four of the last five years. Joe Nathan and George Sherrill, despite their lower profile, have been more effective than either Papelbon or Rivera.

Dan Meyer got Wally Pipped. He was granted the first crack at closing a game after Matt Lindstrom went down in Florida, but couldn’t get the last out. Fredi Gonzalez then turned to Leo Nunez, who got the job done — then and since.

Frank Francisco (shoulder) has been returned to his closer’s role, where he’s shown good velocity but not nearly the command he had earlier. After starting the year with 17 2/3 scoreless innings, he’s allowed six runs in his last six frames while blowing two straight saves.

We’re concerned about overuse of Francisco Rodriguez, who dealt a career-high 46 pitches yesterday as Jerry Manuel continues to not just burn up — but deep fry, barbeque and pressure-cook — his bullpen. K-Rod on a pace for a 20% increase in innings over last year, and he’s never been a low pitch-count guy anyway.

It’s time to put the “safe” stamp on J.P. Howell in Tampa Bay. Joe Maddon may go another way situationally now and then (because he is, after all, Joe Maddon), but Howell hasn’t allowed an earned run in six weeks.

Playing for Keepers
A prospect to consider if you’re focused on the future:

Daniel Bard, RP, Red Sox: Bard is right up there with Joel Zumaya for the mythical title of Fastest Pitcher on Earth. The short list of things separating him from a closer’s job right now are mechanics, command, experience and Mr. Papelbon. But make no mistake: Bard will be a closer — elsewhere, if not in Boston. While you’re waiting for that to happen, he fills out a fantasy staff fairly well, especially in 5x5 leagues where strikeouts from relievers are always a little bonus.

Wired
The fantasy impact of recent transactions:

Mark DeRosa (UTL) traded from Indians to Cardinals for Chris Perez (RP): As is his custom, DeRosa will play all around the diamond, but will be somewhere every day — as soon as he gets past his minor wrist injury, that is. No significant St. Louis player is affected by this in fantasy terms, although Khalil Greene will be reduced to a minor role when he gets off the DL. Perez is worth considering only in keeper leagues, and even then only minimally, since closer Kerry Wood is signed through 2010.

Asdrubal Cabrera (IF, Indians) off DL: The domino effect of the DeRosa deal and this activation was that Cabrera was moved permanently from second base to short, with Jhonny Peralta sliding to third. That leaves the keystone in the fantasy-immaterial hands of Jamey Carroll and Luis Valbuena.

Scott Kazmir (SP, Rays) off DL: Kazmir’s activation sent Andy Sonnanstine, a 13-game winner in 2008 who leads the AL in earned runs allowed this year, back to Durham for a tune-up.

Koji Uehara (SP, Orioles) to DL: With Uehara’s season in jeopardy, David Hernandez moves back into the rotation. Despite attention-grabbing strikeout ratios in the minors, we’re dubious of his short- or long-term roto value.

Mike Lowell (3B, Red Sox) to DL: Mark Kotsay, fresh off the DL himself, now finds himself platooning with Jeff Bailey at first base, and Kevin Youkilis swings around to third. Kotsay has a touch of short-term value.

Eric Hinske (OF) traded from Pirates to Yankees: Hinske won’t play enough to help you, but the guy Pittsburgh called up to replace him — Garrett Jones — deserves consideration. He’s an old (28) rookie who won’t hit for average, but should deliver some home run pop.

Nyjer Morgan (OF) traded from Nationals to Pirates: With Washington desperate for a true center fielder, Morgan becomes an automatic play. He’ll be flanked by a rotation of Josh Willingham, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns. Meanwhile, the bitterly disappointing Elijah Dukes (who, if nothing else, leads the NL in outfield assists) goes back to the minors, where he’ll either salvage his career or ruin his life. In Pittsburgh, this works to the benefit of Delwyn Young, Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce. 

Manny Ramirez (OF, Dodgers) off suspension: Juan Pierre hit .318 with 21 SBs since Manny was exiled. In the month they coexisted, he averaged one at-bat per day and stole one base.

The Friday Sweep
A broad-brush of fantasy-relevant notes:

Derek Holland recently had a game in which he was the first pitcher since at least 1954 to record at least eight strikeouts and allow as many as 13 hits in a start of less than six innings.

Ian Snell has bloated a lot of WHIPs in the years we’ve waited for him to reach his potential. After 15 starts and a 2-8 record this year, the Pirates finally sent the 27-year-old down to work on his command. In case you missed it, Snell struck out 13 consecutive hitters in a Triple-A game last weekend. He finished with 17 in seven innings.

The Orioles can condone Matt Wieters’ power-less .250 AVG since Geoff Zaun (.239) is their only alternative, but base-stealers are running hogwild on the young catching phenom. We have to think that it’s at least crossed their minds to return him to Triple-A to apply a little more polish before his confidence goes south.

Three months ago, there were few scarier pitching prospects than Jason Marquis embarking upon the Coors Field portion of his career. On Tuesday, he became the first 10-game winner in the NL. While his home splits (4.34 ERA, 1.448 WHIP) are marginal, they’ve been more than offset on the road (3.50, 1.200). Marquis is certainly roster-worthy, but owning him is still a bungee jump. In four starts, he’s been massacred; in the other dozen, his ERA is 1.97.

Another pitching note for the Rockies-phobic among us: They were, in June, the first team in 24 years to get 19 wins from their starters.




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