ALCS Preview: Red Sox vs. Rays

Game 1: Fri., Oct. 10 at Tampa Bay
Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90) vs. James Shields (14-8, 3.56)

Game 2: Sat., Oct. 11 at Tampa Bay
Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03) vs. Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49)

Game 3: Mon., Oct. 13 at Boston
Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21) vs. Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70)

Game 4: Tue., Oct. 14 at Boston
Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38)

Game 5: Thur., Oct. 16 at Boston
TBA vs. TBA

Game 6: Sat., Oct. 18 at Tampa Bay
TBA vs. TBA

Game 7: Sun., Oct. 19 at Tampa Bay
TBA vs. TBA

Preview

Maybe no one saw the Rays coming. OK, delete the word maybe. The Rays have been the feel-good story of the year, recalling the days of the 1969 Mets. Having finished out of the cellar just once in their 10-year history, Tampa Bay won the AL East. That’s right. That’s the division that houses the Yankees and Red Sox. The upstart Rays have been in first place since June 29, save for when a seven-game losing streak prior to the All-Star break temporarily dropped them to second.

Boston and Tampa Bay battled all season. The Rays won the season series 10-8, but the Red Sox were 7-2 at Fenway Park. Although, in September with the division lead in the balance, the Rays took two of three from the Red Sox at both Fenway and Tropicana Field.

At first glance you’ll see a seasoned Red Sox team that owns two of the last four World Series titles facing a young, inexperienced and energetic Rays team full of exuberance. But don’t let that youthful appearance make you think this team will be intimidated. The Rays own the best home record in baseball, and played the final two months of the season as the hunted. So the pressure of the postseason should not be a factor, especially considering how easily they dispatched the White Sox in the ALDS.

How The Rays Can Win

The Rays had timely hitting against the White Sox, and they’ll need more of that against the Red Sox. Evan Longoria was 3-for-3 in Game 1, including homers in each of his first two at bats, but then disappeared in Games 2-4. They’ll need Longoria and Carlos Pena, to provide the middle-of-the-lineup pop they’re capable of. Leadoff hitter Akinori Iwamura will also be counted on to set the table for the big bobbers. Iwamura hit .386 in the ALDS, including a double, triple and home run. Keep an eye on the Rays’ ninth-inning as well. Dan Wheeler converted his only save opportunity against the White Sox but gave up a run in the process. With Troy Percival off the ALCS roster, Wheeler is the go-to guy and he must be perfect in what will certainly be a tight series.

How The Red Sox Can Win

Jacoby Ellsbury was red-hot at the end of the season and he carried that over to the playoffs. The rookie struggled to get on base at times during the season, but it’s no secret that the Sox are a better team with Ellsbury causing havoc on the basepaths. His .400 OBP in the ALDS was exactly what the Sox need out of their leadoff hitter. The biggest key for Boston will be the starters. Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka were brilliant while Josh Beckett struggled in his only opportunity in the ALDS. Beckett (Game 2) and Tim Wakefield (Game 4) will be counted on to give the Sox six strong innings in their outings.

Athlon Sports Says…

A close comparison of lineups reveals why the Red Sox are defending champs. They have speed at the top, run producers in the middle and depth at the bottom. The Rays have speed and more speed, but not quite as much power or depth. Expect solid starts from both rotations, but the Rays’ bullpen isn’t as sound as Boston’s. That could be the difference. The Red Sox won’t give up leads late in the game; the Rays just might. We’re not ready to pass the baton to the Rays just yet. Red Sox in six.