NLCS Preview: Phillies vs. Dodgers

Game 1: Thu., Oct. 9 at Philadelphia
Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24) vs. Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09)

Game 2: Fri., Oct. 10 at Philadelphia
Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14) vs Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55)

Game 3: Sun., Oct. 12 at Los Angeles
Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73) vs Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71)

Game 4: Mon., Oct. 13 at Los Angeles
TBA vs. Joe Blanton (4-0, 4.20)

Game 5: Tue., Oct. 14 at Los Angeles
TBA vs. TBA 

Game 6: Thu., Oct. 16 at Philadelphia
TBA vs. TBA 

Game 7: Fri., Oct. 17 at Philadelphia
TBA vs. TBA 

Preview

Over the final few weeks of the season it became apparent that no one wanted to face the Dodgers in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Cubs, they drew the short straw by having the best record in the league. The Phillies had the luxury of facing the Brewers — the team everyone wanted to face in the playoffs.

The Phillies and Dodgers split their eight games in August with the home team winning every game. After a mid-August Dodger sweep in L.A., the Phillies returned the favor less than two weeks later.

This series is as evenly matched as any this postseason. Bullpens are strong, but not airtight. Each team has two reliable starters at the top of the rotation, then things get interesting. The lineups are prone to streaks. When Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are hot, they’re unstoppable. The same can be said of Manny Ramirez and James Loney and Rafael Furcal.

The team that scores the most two-out runs will win the series. That isn’t rocket science. That is simply clutch hitting and clutch pitching. Obviously the home team seems to have an advantage here given the regular season results.

Listen to Charlie Miller and Patrick Snow break down the LCS series

How the Phillies Can Win

It starts at the top with Rollins, Shane Victorino and Utley. Those three table setters must keep the pressure on the Dodgers’ pitchers and make them work. If these three can consistently provide tough at-bats, the big guys behind can feast. Jamie Moyer must come up big in Game 3 at Los Angeles. The Dodgers don’t allow many runs at home, so Moyer must be up to the challenge. And Finally, Brad Lidge cannot get too close to the cliff. He tends to live on edge, allowing base runners before finally closing out games. The Dodgers are adept at taking a mile when you give them an inch. So he must be sharp.

How the Dodgers Can Win

The Dodgers’ scouts nailed the Cubs’ hitters and their pitchers executed the game plan. That is a hallmark of Joe Torre’s teams while he skippered the Yankees. And Howard and Pat Burrell have shown to have some holes in their swings. You don’t strikeout as much as they do without some holes. The Dodgers’ defense is sound and must not give the Phillies anything. Philadelphia’s offense struggled against Milwaukee and the Brewers gave away the first game with porous defense. With Rafael Furcal on base in front of James Loney and Manny Ramirez, the Phillies’ pitchers could be in trouble.

Players to Watch

For the Dodgers, it’s all the usual suspects: Manny, Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Those big bats will carry the load. An interesting matchup to watch is lefty Joe Beimel facing Victorino, Utley and Howard. Joe Torre has used Beimel as his primary lefthander, but in his five appearances against Philadelphia, he’s had mixed results. He retired Utley twice and hit him once. He’s faced Howard three times: walked him twice (on nine pitches) to load the bases, and walked him intentionally with no one on and two outs. Vicotrino has a two-run single, a leadoff double in the 11th inning (eventually scoring the winning run) and struck out looking. Beimel hasn’t given in to Howard, and the Dodgers hope he doesn’t have to

For the Phillies, it’s Rollins and Victorino. They are the guys that can get under the Dodgers’ pitchers’ skin. Reliever Ryan Madson will have a pivotal role bridging the gap from the starters to Lidge. This season the Dodgers are 2-for-16 with four Ks and no walks. The other Philly relievers haven’t fared so well.

Athlon Sports Says…

The Dodgers will find the holes in the Phillies’ attack and their pitchers will exploit them. Ramirez is the best big-game hitter in the postseason and he will get some clutch hits. Los Angeles will steal a game in Philadelphia and win in five.