ALDS Preview: Rays vs. White Sox

Game 1: Thu., Oct. 2 at Tampa Bay
Javier Vazquez (12-16, 4.67) vs. James Shields (14-8, 3.56)

Game 2: Fri., Oct. 3 at Tampa Bay
Mark Buehrle (15-12, 3.79) vs Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49)

Game 3: Sun., Oct. 5 at Chicago
TBA vs Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70)

Game 4: Mon., Oct. 6 at Chicago
TBA vs. TBA 

Game 5: Wed., Oct. 8 at Tampa Bay
TBA vs. TBA

Preview

This is certainly not the series fans have been anticipating since April. Chicago and Tampa Bay? Stand up and yell long and hard if you had these teams in the office pool in April. Some time in August the Rays finally made believers of the baseball world and were accepted as a contender — not just a fluke. It may have been even later than that for the Sox. The White Sox come into the series having won three elimination games in succession against three different teams — The Indians on Sunday, the Tigers on Monday and the Twins on Tuesday. A shot at the Royals to make a division sweep somehow was left off the docket. The White Sox lineup is full of bashers with an all-or-nothing approach. The pitchers seemingly have been on fumes in September, but John Danks pitched the game of his life against the Twins. The Rays are in the mold of their manager, Joe Maddon, who comes from the Angels’ school of doing whatever it takes to win games. Put another way, the Rays do all the little things well. They run the bases, they take pitches, they move runners, and they throw strikes.

How the Rays Can Win

The Rays must not be daunted by being in the playoffs. The fans may not know how to act, but the players will handle this new territory. After all, you don’t knock off the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East if you get intimidated easily. Carl Crawford, injured since early August, is expected to play and can be a spark for an offense built around speeds and smarts, not power. Carlos Peña and Evan Longoria have supplied clutch hits all season. The bullpen has been shaky at times, but it must close the deal. Keeping the ball in the ballpark is the order of the day. The White Sox can’t win if the ball doesn’t leave the park.

How the White Sox Can Win

Somehow manager Ozzie Guillen seem to make things work out, doesn’t he? The Sox need to bash and bash often to win. And getting just one run — albeit an 800-foot shot by Jim Thome — off the Twins Nick Blackburn isn’t a good sign. Defensively, the Sox will also need to be at the top of their game. And another one or two games of their lives by starters would help. The bullpen, which was so good in the first half of the season, became a real problem in the second half posting a 5.00-plus ERA. Bobby Jenks is a reliable closer, but the Sox can’t afford to lose games in the seventh and eighth.

Players to Watch

The Rays offense will start with Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton. Crawford has raked Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle at a .447 clip (21-for-47 combined). Upton has similar numbers as well and both bring the speed element. Throw in super-sub Fernando Perez and catcher A.J. Pierzynski will have his hands full slowing runners. Of the 16 catchers who qualified, Pierzynski was last in caught stealing percentage (17.9 percent). Only one catcher allowed more stolen bases than did Pierzynski. That contrasts with the Rays’ Dioner Navarro who was second in caught stealing percentage (38.4 percent) and of all catchers who caught at least 1,000 innings, only the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina allowed fewer stolen bases than Navarro.

Athlon Sports Says…

The Rays are much more balanced and complete. But the Sox have some veterans like Ken Griffey and Jim Thome playing for their first rings. But talent and performance will win out over emotion. The Rays will sweep. They are too good at home.