NLDS Preview: Phillies vs. Brewers

Game 1: Wed., Oct. 1 at Philadelphia
Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 1.88) vs. Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09)

Game 2: Thu., Oct. 2 at Philadelphia
C.C. Sabathia (11-2, 1.65) vs Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55)

Game 3: Sat., Oct. 4 at Milwaukee
TBA vs Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71)

Game 4: Sun., Oct. 5 at Milwaukee
TBA vs. TBA 

Game 5: Tue., Oct. 7 at Philadelphia
C.C. Sabathia vs. TBA

Preview

Much like the Colorado Rockies of 2007, the Milwaukee Brewers played themselves into the playoffs with a do-or-die kind of pressure for several weeks. Last season, that was a bad recipe for the Phillies. But we saw a brief preview of this series in mid-September when the Phillies swept four games in Philadelphia. It was at a critical time for both teams, and pulled the Phillies to within three games of both the Mets and Brewers in the playoff hunt. The Brewers struggled hitting just .169 in that series and scoring just 10 runs. Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer each had solid starts and were credited with wins. The Phillies’ bullpen pitched eight innings giving up just one run.

On the bright side for the Brewers, C.C. Sabathia didn’t pitch in that series. The Phillies boast a much deeper and healthier rotation and bullpen, but the Brewers have proven to have a flair for the dramatic, winning three games in their final at-bat in the last week of September. There should be plenty of home runs and strikeouts, especially in Game 1 in Philadelphia. The most exciting game for the nail-biting crowd should be Game 2, with C.C. Sabathia and Brett Myers on the mound. Myers was briefly demoted to the minors this season, but seemed to find his groove. His post-demotion ERA is 1.80 in his next 11 starts before getting blown up in his final two outings. There is no doubt the Brewers would be watching this series on TV if not for the acquisition of Sabathia. Pitching on three days rest, the big fella has become the heart and soul of the Brew Crew.

How the Phillies Can Win

The Phillies’ opportunities to win increase dramatically with the number of innings the Brewers’ bullpen has to throw. After auditioning closers for most of the season, veteran Salomon Torres has been in that role for most of the second half, saving 28 games. But he has made life interesting for interim manager Dale Sveum. Eric Gagne has truly been an igniter, not an extinguisher. The Phillies must have good at-bats off Game 1 starter Yovani Gallardo and make him throw a lot of pitches. Good outings from Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer should pretty much ice the series.

How the Brewers Can Win

C.C. and pray for rain. First of all, Sabathia has to win Games 2 and 5. Squeezing out one more win with a shaky bullpen and penchant for striking out will be tough. The Brewers offense cooled off in September, with Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Mike Cameron, Jason Kendall, Bill Hall and Craig Counsell all hitting below .210 for the month. They must get those bats warmed up. Too often the offense seems to wait around for Fielder or Braun to hit a heroic home run late in games. Relying on that in this series will spell doom. Jeff Suppan has been a big game pitcher in his career, and Milwaukee desperately needs him to have at least one more big game in him.

Players to Watch

With a strong outing in Game 2, Brett Myers could ostensibly end the series with a win over Sabathia. None of the Brewers have enjoyed any measure of success against Myers. On the other hand, Jamie Moyer has been pitching as well as anytime in his 22-year career during the second half of the season. But with the success that many of the Brewer hitters have had off Moyer in their careers, he doesn’t strike fear or produce any doubt in their minds. The 45-year-old may not have to hold the Brewers to four runs or less, but he must keep the Phillies in the game. As he has been all season, lefthander J.C. Romero will be called upon for some critical innings to bridge the gap between the starters and closer Brad Lidge…Prince Fielder has been the team’s hottest hitter over the past month. He has four career homers in 28 at-bats off the first three starters. Game 1 starter Yovani Gallardo was one of the Brewers’ best starters in 2007, winning nine games in 17 starts. The Phillies aren’t familiar with him and he must keep the ball in the ballpark and work efficiently enough to keep the pressure off the bullpen.

Athlon Sports Says…

With C.C. Sabathia on the mound, the Brewers are perhaps the best team in baseball right now. However, they must find a way to win without him. The Phillies will score runs in bunches with speed and power when C.C. is not on the hill. Philadelphia wins in four games, denying Sabathia a chance for a second start.