NLDS Preview: Dodgers vs. Cubs

Game 1: Wed., Oct. 1 at Chicago    
Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24) vs. Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96)

Game 2: Thu., Oct. 2 at Chicago   
Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14) vs Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91)

Game 3: Sat., Oct. 4 at Los Angeles    
Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73) vs Rich Harden (5-1, 1.77)

Game 4: Sun., Oct. 5 at Los Angeles       
TBA vs. Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09) 

Game 5: Tue., Oct. 7 at Chicago       
TBA vs. TBA

Preview

The Cubs and Dodgers present contrasting pictures. The Cubs, the dominant team in the NL all season, feature an offense full of run producers, but no superstar that can carry the team. The Dodgers were anything but dominant all season. Prior to the trade deadline, winning 80 games looked like a stretch. But Manny Ramirez walked into the clubhouse and suddenly the Dodgers’ offense came alive. With these pitching staffs, it’s tough to imagine these games turning into slugfests. If they do, that favors the Cubs. Chicago seems to be the overwhelming favorite here, but in a short series, in close games, superstars like Ramirez can take over.

How the Cubs Can Win

Ryan Dempster is almost unbeatable at Wrigley Field. The Cubs must hold serve in games 1 & 2 at home. Manager Lou Piniella’s decision to start Dempster in Game 1 is prudent for two reasons: his aforementioned home record, and unlike Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano, Dempster is the Cubs’ best shot at a calm, solid seven innings. He may not shut down the Dodgers, but he won’t get shelled, preventing the Cubs from going into panic mode too soon. The Cubs have run producers throughout the lineup. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano get most of the pub, but Geovany Soto has been clutch all season. The Cubs will be patient and make the Dodgers’ pitchers work. With so many weapons, it’s difficult to maneuver through this lineup efficiently. From the Cubs’ pitchers’ point of view, they must have a solid game plan for pitching to Manny Ramirez. He is the one guy in Dodger Blue that can beat them by himself.  If he continues to get at-bats with runners on base and the Cubs have to pitch to him, he will wreak havoc. And finally, the Cubs must not put too much pressure on Kerry Wood. The Dodgers have good fastball hitters and it will be tough for Wood to close out multiple games.

How the Dodgers Can Win

Pitching, pitching, pitching and Manny, Manny, Manny. Keeping the score down and close is the only way the Dodgers can outduel the Cubs. The Dodgers cannot win a slugfest. Ramirez hits a home run about every nine at-bats off Cubs pitchers. So, if he hits one in the first two games, and if it comes at the right time, the Dodgers can steal a game at Wrigley Field and close out the series in L.A. Joe Torre is a seasoned postseason manager and has versatile players and can play matchups. Jeff Kent is healthy enough to be a looming bat off the bench if he doesn’t start.

Players to Watch

Other than Ramirez, Jeff Kent could be a weapon late in games. For his career, Kent  is 13-for-31 against Kerry Wood with five home runs. He’s 3-for-4 off Bob Howry. So Kent’s presence on the bench could dictate matchups throughout the game as Lou Piniella tries to avoid facing Kent in a comfortable situation. Rafael Furcal was having a terrific season for the first two months until a balky back sidelined him for more than two months. The speedy shortstop was setting the table, but no one was cleaning up behind him. If he proves to Torre to be healthy enough to play, Furcal will be the perfect tablesetter for Ramirez….For the Cubs, Carlos Marmol should have a huge role. Key Dodger hitters are1-for-11 against the reliever with the only hit being a Nomar Garciaparra single. Piniella will look to use Marmol to face the meat of the Dodgers’ order late in the game. Ramirez has never faced Marmol — advantage Marmol. Mike Fontenot and Mark DeRosa give Piniella some lineup flexibility. DeRosa can play right field or second, creating a three-way platoon with Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs lose a little defensively with DeRosa, but he gives the team good at-bats.

Athlon Sports Says…

So far this century the Red Sox and White Sox have ended long championship droughts. So it stands to reason that the Cubs are next in line in what is the 100th anniversary of their last World Series win. The Dodgers are hot and playing their best baseball of the season and are as healthy as they’ve been all year. The Cubs won five of the seven regular season meetings, but Manny Ramirez didn’t play in any of those games. This is a totally different team with him in the lineup. The Dodgers win in four games.